If Modi's 'campaign against Opposition' on Women Bill is successful, the framing will resonate beyond West Bengal

 The defeat of the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill on women’s reservation and delimitation may reshape electoral politics—potentially hurting the Opposition more than the BJP.

Congress has already lost its previous vote banks – the upper caste Hindus to BJP, the OBC to Yadavs (SP and RJD), Dalits to Mayawati-led BSP, and Muslims to AIUDF, SP and RJD.

If women voters begin to drift away as well, the consequences could be severe.

By NIRENDRA DEV

New Delhi, — Was the push for women’s reservation a political miscalculation by Narendra Modi, or a calculated gamble aimed at West Bengal? 

The answer may lie not in Parliament, but in the ballot boxes of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

At first glance, the move appeared unnecessary. With crucial elections looming—particularly in West Bengal—the timing raised eyebrows. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is not even the principal challenger to the DMK, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. So why push a contentious and complex proposal combining women’s reservation with delimitation?

One possibility: this was less a legislative effort and more a political trap.

Despite rising participation of women voters across India, structural barriers continue to limit their representation in politics. Yet, linking women’s reservation to delimitation—a far more divisive and politically sensitive exercise—complicated the narrative. Critics argued this diluted the core objective of women’s empowerment.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi framed it bluntly: “This is not a women’s bill… This is an attempt to change the electoral map of India.” Even Shashi Tharoor cautioned that southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu should not be penalized for successfully controlling population growth.

The last delimitation exercise dates back to 1971, making the issue politically explosive. Southern leaders, including Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin, called the proposal a “punishment” for progressive states.

Meanwhile, in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee has built a formidable women-centric support base through welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar. 

In the 2021 Assembly elections, her party, the All India Trinamool Congress, secured 213 out of 294 seats with a 48% vote share, significantly ahead of the BJP’s 39%. 

Among women voters, the gap was even wider—reportedly around 13%.

The BJP’s strategy, reportedly shaped by Amit Shah and Modi, may have been to corner the Opposition: support the bill and concede political ground, or oppose it and risk appearing anti-women. If successful, this framing could resonate beyond West Bengal.

However, this rests on a key assumption—that women voters prioritize symbolic representation over direct economic benefits. Evidence suggests otherwise. Welfare schemes and cash transfers often carry more electoral weight than legislative promises. Issues like safety and dignity—highlighted by the BJP in incidents such as Sandeshkhali—have not consistently translated into votes.

For the Opposition, the situation is equally precarious. While they may claim a tactical win by blocking the bill, the political optics could backfire. The Congress, in particular, faces a shrinking coalition. Over the years, it has lost significant support among upper castes, OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims to various regional and national players.

If women voters begin to drift away as well, the consequences could be severe.

Amit Shah has already sharpened the narrative, accusing the Opposition of “deceiving half the country’s population.” His warning is clear: the electoral repercussions could extend well beyond the next general election.

In the end, this episode may not be about legislative success or failure. It is about narrative control. 

If the BJP successfully portrays the Opposition as obstructing women’s empowerment, the political dividends could be substantial. 

But if voters see through the strategy as opportunistic, it could just as easily backfire.

The real verdict will come not from Parliament—but from the electorate.

courtesy - The Raisina Hills