Amit Shah’s rise as the BJP’s master strategist dates back to the 2014 :::::: AAP Split Shocker: Is Trinamool Next in BJP’s Bengal Playbook?

By NIRENDRA DEV

— Was the split in the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on April 24 a coincidence—or a calculated political signal? And more crucially, could All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) face a similar churn as West Bengal heads into a high-stakes electoral phase?

“The biggest guru-mantra is: never share your secrets with anybody. It will destroy you,” wrote Chanakya—a line often invoked to describe the political style of Amit Shah.

Shah’s rise as the BJP’s master strategist dates back to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, where he engineered a stunning victory—73 out of 80 seats for the NDA, including 71 for the BJP. That performance amplified the Narendra Modi wave nationally and cemented Shah’s reputation as a formidable election manager.

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi’s electoral record has often been cited by critics as less successful, sharpening the narrative of BJP’s strategic dominance.  

From Mamata Banerjee’s 2014 jibe to Amit Shah’s 2026 ground push, Bengal’s battle intensifies amid Aam Aadmi Party turmoil  

West Bengal tells a story of dramatic transformation. In 2014, when Mamata Banerjee famously asked, “Who is Amit Shah?”, the BJP was a marginal player. The party held just two Lok Sabha seats—Darjeeling and Asansol—and remained on the fringes of state politics.

Even in 2017, the BJP’s assembly presence was negligible. But by 2021, it had surged to become the principal opposition, displacing both the Left and the Congress—an outcome that reshaped Bengal’s political landscape.

Now, the 2026 contest is effectively a bipolar battle between the BJP and the TMC. High voter turnout—over 90% in the April 23 phase—has added unpredictability, reminiscent of the 2011 election that ended Left rule.

Amid this backdrop, the April 24 developments in AAP’s Rajya Sabha ranks—seen as a sudden and unexpected split—have triggered wider political speculation. While the immediate impact may be limited to Delhi and Punjab, the timing has raised eyebrows in Bengal’s political circles.  

The underlying question being whispered: if AAP can fracture, why not TMC?

Reports suggest that “floating voters” could play a decisive role in the upcoming phases. 

Speculation is rife that if the BJP crosses the 110–120 seat mark in the 294-member assembly, it could emerge as the single largest force, setting the stage for post-poll maneuvering. 

The majority mark stands at 148.

Internally, TMC faces its own tensions. The generational shift led by Abhishek Banerjee has not been universally accepted within the party, with sections of the old guard reportedly uneasy about his leadership prospects.

Meanwhile, Shah’s extended stay in Kolkata—marked by back-to-back meetings with political actors, intellectuals, and business intermediaries—signals a deeper, multi-layered strategy.

For Shah personally, Bengal carries stakes beyond the state. As succession debates within the BJP quietly simmer, the 2026 electoral outcomes could shape the future leadership trajectory under Modi. 

Whether the AAP split was an isolated incident or part of a broader political pattern remains to be seen. But in Bengal’s charged atmosphere, even distant tremors are being read as signals of an impending political shift.

( courtesy - The Raisina Hills )

ends