For Yogi Adityanath and BJP; the parliamentary polls performance in 2024 was a nightmare.
They ended up picking up less number of seats than the Samajwadi Party in India's most populous state and that too within a few months of grand inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.
But for 2027 assembly both sides will have to do more than what is expected and outperform the other.
The Lok Sabha has just defeated a bill to reserve a third of seats for women. This was more than a routine legislative business. It is seen as a decision of the Lower House of Parliament that could transform Indian politics to a large extent. Three decades have passed since the Bill was first proposed in parliament in 1996.
Yogi Adityanath is the UP chief minister since 2017 and hence anti incumbency will be strong there as the 'law of the average'. For Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav too, the stakes are high.
Even so called 'good performance' by SP candidates in 2024 Lok Sabha polls is taken as pleasant accidents. No one takes it seriously that the Samajwadi Party has done anything great at the party's organisational level.
Data shows:
Samajwadi Party polled 43.52% votes in 2024 parliamentary polls as against 43.69% of the BJP.
Compared to previous performance, SP managed a swing (Increase) of 19.05 per cent while the BJP suffered a drop of 9.19 per cent.
From the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the Akhilesh Yadav's party had won 43 and BJP's tally came down to 36 from 64 seats the Lotus party had won in 2019.
On one hand, the BJP has kept itself focused on the Hindutva plank and the governance model of Yogi - more popularly known as the Bulldozer mechanism.
The assembly elections would be more complex.
On the other hand, it is the usual mindset - of a dynast - who feels people want to see the end of the Bulldozer Rule. Hence the SP leaders believe that the voters "will have no alternative" other than to vote for the Samajwadi Party in 2027 March elections in they want to defeat and end Yogi's rule.
A decade out of power. but it is still the family party where Akhilesh Yadav, his uncle Ram Gopal Yadav and wife Dimple Yadav matter.
Unless Akhilesh takes some immediate and drastic steps nothing great can be expected. Two other players the Congress and the BSP of Mayawati are marginalised and may not do any miracle even as the Congress had won six seats out of 17 it contested.
This was a significant jump from only two seats in 2019.
I interviewed Akhilesh Yadav for 'The Statesman' in 2009 immediately after Lok Sabha polls - there too; the Samajwadi Party did not do pretty well. Those were Mayawati days in office as the chief minister and Akhilesh Yadav was still three years far off from coming to power in UP with a landslide win in 2012.
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| Modi at Ayodhya: Jan 2024 |
However the Akhilesh rule had ended in UP in 2017 later.
In 2009, what Akhilesh had said has actually stuck as an important factor in UP politics.
"Muslims have not deserted us," he had said. "...contrary to media perception, we don't have reasons to feel sad about the verdict... We do not want BJP and the BSP to do well; that was our campaign and that way we have succeeded".
(The Statesman, June 27, 2009)
Muslims constitute approximately 19–23% of Uttar Pradesh's population, forming a significant voting bloc concentrated in Western UP and Rohilkhand. They tend to vote tactically for the strongest candidate capable of defeating the BJP, often consolidating behind the Samajwadi Party (79% in 2022).
Voter roll revisions have recently shown lower deletion rates in Muslim-dominated districts compared to others.
The districts with a high Muslim population (above 25%) are: Rampur (50.57%),
Moradabad (47.12%), Bijnor (43.04%),
Saharanpur (41.95%), Muzaffarnagar (41.30%),
Amroha (40.78%), Balrampur (37.51%),
Bareilly (34.54%),
Meerut (34.43%),
Bahraich (33.53%),
Shrawasti (30.79%), Baghpat (27.98%),
Ghaziabad (25.35%), and Siddharthnagar (29.23%).
Closer studies must be made about BJP's performance in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
The 2014 Lok Sabha election saw the BJP winning at least eight Muslim-stronghold seats, including Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad,
Muzaffarnagar, Nagina, Rampur, Saharanpur and Sambhal.
But in 2019, the SP-BSP fighting in alliance, won 15 seats including in Muslim-dominated
Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad, Rampur and Sambhal.
The 2022 assembly election outcome threw up another set of data.
Despite general perception that Muslims are against the BJP, the Lotus party won over a percentage of the Muslim votes in the 2022 Assembly elections.
The CSDS-Lokniti studies claimed at least eight per cent of the Muslim votes went to the BJP.
In 2022, Uttar Pradesh got 34 Muslim MLAs -- most from Akhilesh Yadav's party
So far, the highest number of Muslim MLAs in the UP Assembly has been 69 in the 2012-2017 term.
A majority of Muslim MLAs come from West UP. Twenty-one Muslim candidates from the western part of the state have been elected, while six are from Central UP and seven from Purvanchal.
In terms of party-wise distribution, of the 34, 32 were from the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and two from the Rashtriya Lok Dal.
Noida protests: BJP sees 'well-planned' conspiracy
The episode has drawn sharp reactions.
Noida region is the 'industrial jewel' of Uttar Pradesh’s growth story.
Hence BJP leaders see the situation as an effort to dent the state’s image as an investment hub at a time when major infrastructure projects are being showcased.
Every issue counts in an election year.
ends
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