There are multiple ways to look at elections. But if you are talking about such as Bihar -- the best option is leave 60-70 per cent to chance.
Nearly one in every 10 young people in the state is unemployed.
Caste and other 'local factors' overwhelmingly decide and may not decide things. The traditional political cards and campaign lines - Moditva, Vote-Chori, Hindutva, Nitish Babu's image, MY-factor of RJD and the powerful Yadav and Dalit factors may not work. Dalits have Maha-Dalits break and the manner Nitish Kumar handled in 2009 Lok Sabha polls - a vote getter such as Ram Vilas Paswan himself had lost and his party's Lok Sabha figures stood at zero.
That's Bihar. But in Bihar what works in the Lok Sabha polls will simply not work in the state assembly elections.
So in 2014 -- the 'Narendra Modi wave' gave NDA a convincing 'win' but in 2015 - when Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad came together and contested assembly polls -- the BJP was handed over a humbling defeat.
Ordinary voters would talk about growth and equality and then there is anger. People still have hopes and aspiration.
There is cautious optimism among residents and what works in politically important Seemanchal region — may not work elsewhere. There are many ups and downs working.
BJP's Chanakya and Home Minister Amit Shah framed the contest as a choice between the development brought by Prime Minister Naremdra Modi and CM Nitish Kumar, and the 'jungle raj' under Lalu between 1990 and 2005.
In another 'masala' info; we may tell you take the crucial seat such as Sapaul. The Congress last won it in 1985 and prior to that in 1980. But since then it has been 'Janata' affairs.
In 1990 and 1995 - it was won by Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad era. By next polls, the Janata Dal was split as Lalu had been behind bars and Rabri Devi had become the chief minister.
In 2000 and subsequently all the polls the seat has been won by Janata Dal (United) candidate Vijendra Prasad Yadav -- 2005, 2010, 2015 and also 2020. He is contesting again. The opposition candidate is from the Congress Minnatullah Rahmani.
He came second in 2020. Hence the grand old party believes miracle can happen.
The Congress is eyeing this set quite seriously and a special team of campaigners led by AICC - Minority Cell leader Rajesh Kumar Sethi will be leading the charge of campaign there.
Rajesh Sethi is hopeful : "Our candidate gave a serious fight in 2020.... We are winning Sapaul this time and Minnatullah Rahmani will be a key player in the formation of the next government in Bihar".
"This election is an opportunity to decide who should be entrusted with the future of Bihar.
On the one hand are those who ushered in 'jungle raj'. On the other hand is the duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Nitish Kumar, who have brought development," said Amit Shah.
Of course, Rajesh Sethi and other leaders including from the RJD counter this narrative.
"Bihari voters are smart enough to understand what Amit Shah actually needs to say. India's Home Minister's should admit there is no job in the state of Bihar and people of the state will teach BJP and JD-U a lesson this time for bluffing them for last 20 years,"
- says Rajesh Sethi.
In many segments; the voters are giving an indication that they would prefer 'younger candidates'. That Nitish Kumar was a performing man especially after 15 years of Lalu raj is one part of the story.
But to many; this is a fact of life. But there is another fact of life - youngsters need job. Bihar's younger generation wants to move on.
"We do not want to be caught in these rhetoric about Jungle raj and Vikas raj. Tell us what is on the table and we will go by that. Therefore in many constituencies, the new party of Prashant Kishor will do well," says Laxman Anand in Gaya.
“Yuva Neta Chahiye…We want younger leadership”-- posters were seen in some areas of Katihar.
This, however, does not mean they will vote enmasse for RJD.
"People do not have much hopes from a regime that will be headed by Tejashwai Yadav," says Ajay Kumar, a grocery shop owner in Patna.
There are many who have "high expectations" from the Double Engine sarkar but even such sections admit there is immense frustration and a sentiment of helplessness over unemployment.
Issues like regular floods and poor infrastructure are also in people's mind.
Take other aspects of polity and governance those are being debated.
Bihar is one of the fastest growing states in India. This is en encouraging statement for the NDA.
BJP poll strategists and JD-U workers make it a point to remind the voters that for the 2025–2026 year, Bihar is estimated to have 22% GDP growth rate.
But others say -- "Is ka matlab kya hae ... humko kya mila (What does it mean... what we got?")
Another fact is -- Bihar is largely service-based,
The agriculture and industry also contribute nevertheless.
According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 29 was 30.9 per cent in 2018–19, a significant increase from 22.8 per cent in 2017.
However, it fell to 9.9 per cent in 2023–2024.
In Gopalganj, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s home district, Amit Shah trained his guns on Sadhu Yadav, Rabri Devi’s estranged brother. "The people of Gopalganj have never voted for the RJD since 2002. I am sure they will keep up the trend ... Nobody knows the misdeeds (kaar-naame) of Sadhu Yadav better than the people of Gopalganj," Shah said.
Yadav, who has served as both MLA and MP from Gopalganj, was frequently in the news for his alleged involvement in criminal activities when his sister was chief minister.
The refrain among voters now is -- if NDA wins ... it is because of Nitish Kumar's face and people's trust in Moditva -- that generates a mix of Hindutva and Development. But if the RJD-Congress opposition combine loses; it will be due to Jungle raj of the Lalu era.
Party spoilers will be Prashant Kishor and AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi.
ends
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