In Indian polity nothing is permanent. That's also about Life and politics elsewhere.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as a very powerful brand of his own.
He kept winning elections on the strength of his 'Modi hae toh Mumkin hae' persona and popularity. All these happened to an extent that at times even BJP's and the identities of many of its allies had become secondary to Namo.
In these games; the Lotus party's ambitions also grew and it started expanding bases in states and region(s) where it was 'ignored' by people by default. In Mizoram, the oft-repeated political line was 'rocks' are too big and strong that Lotus cannot bloom in this state.
The saffron outfit has entered the state legislature here too.
Effectively, the BJP replaced Congress as the national party and the grand old party kept losing states after states.
The BJP has/had chief ministers in Assam, Tripura ( at the cost of Marxists), Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.
In Nagaland - it has a deputy CM since 2018 and is ruling partner in Meghalaya.
In the recent local polls in Assam, the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) made a comeback after five years.
It ousted the ruling United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and its ally, the BJP. The BPF emerging as the single largest party with an absolute majority in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) election has opened the game for the fast approaching assembly elections in early 2026. This mandate is bound to add pressure for the BJP and its mercurial chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
This election has provided a good 'experimental ground' to assess the BJP in general and Himanta's acceptability in tribal belts.
Of the total 126 seats in the Assam assembly, 15 are from the five districts that fall under BTC.
In these polls, only consolation for the Lotus party will be that the Congress failed to win any seat. The BPF bagged 28 seats, while UPPL and BJP won 7 and 5 seats respectively. The saffron party will have to pull up sleeves. Elsewhere in Assam and other northeastern states too - the pressure is building up on the BJP.
In Upper Assam and in Muslim-belt along Karimganj-Silchar and Dhubri regions - the Congress is understandably in upswing this time.
The minorities have realised that backing Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF will not help them to prevent BJP capturing power in Assam and hence the strategic voting will deprive BJP or its allies several seats in these belts.
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| Bodo area local polls voting |
There are other challenges for the BJP.
In Nagaland, the hyped merger game between NDPP and NPF will isolate BJP electorally. The state chief minister Neiphiu Rio heading the NDPP-BJP government at Kohima since 2018 is already preparing for the 2028 assembly elections. And the Lotus party will be yet again forced to play second fiddle to the 'dadagiri' of the regional partner.
The refrain already being circulated is that -- the BJP will have to "respect and accommodate regional sentiments". To a large extent this argument cannot be wished away.
In 2023 assembly elections, the Lotus party did contest alone in Meghalaya and even had attacked Conrad Sangma for alleged corruption - but it could win only two.
One argument could be - the BJP should have gone alone in Nagaland and then the results would have been different. But Rio made use of friendship with his 'junior colleague' Himanta Biswa Sarma and convinced Amit Shah that 40:20 seat agreement was idle.
Both are ex-Congress leaders and their love for BJP ideology is sheer coincidence.
The BJP just lost the initiatives.
Moreover, in Nagaland's electoral wars, Rio is one-man resourceful stakeholder. He has 'friends' - in all parties and everywhere under the sky and beyond !!
Manipur - a difficult and complex Challenge :
The northeast watchers as well as New Delhi's dedicated foot-soldiers and a few traditionally known as armed-chair ivory tower experts will be wondering why --
the VVIP visit possibly could not find an effective Road to Peace in Manipur.
Half the problems lay in administrative issues and those are quite tricky but a few faultlines are with the BJP itself. Did the party 'promote' one or two particular leaders beyond limit and things have become tougher now ?
Another criterion on this front is "over dependence" on ex-Congressman. At the end of the day, they are sheer opportunists.
The RSS people deployed in northeast - mostly have no idea of how things can really have long-term impacts. BJP leaders deployed need to learn and unlearn the functioning styles of Rio's best friends -- Ram Madhav and Nalin Kohli.
Present team is simply doing their job with least bothered to make ideological penetration.
All ex-Congress leaders in north east and beyond have played with Rahul Gandhi's lapdogs in the past. In some of the new cases - they are turning 'more BJP/RSS than any normal pro-Hindutva protagonists'.
Travel across Assam, Nagaland and Manipur -- there will be many takers to this theory. Even Rio - who claims to be friend of Himanta - says one reason for him to opt for 'operation Cock' is some of the controversial 'anti-healing' bills in Assam.
NEDA ? What does it mean ?
The Sept 19 gory episode of ambush on Assam Rifles relief workers is more than that just sees the eyes.
At least four people have been held. Some of the information are not being shared in public but media persons in Imphal and elsewhere are getting a hang of it.
Now type out -- To "get the hang of something" and ask uncle Google - the response is
-- Means to learn how to do something by practicing it, gaining skill, and understanding the method or technique, especially if it's initially difficult or not obvious. It implies acquiring familiarity, confidence, and proficiency in a new activity or skill.
On this backdrop - one may take the risk of 'liberation' and tell 'people' about all stakeholders including 'army' -- that there is a fishy plot boiling.
In the 1990s, even the then Home Minister L K Advani had warned of the dangerous consequences of 'politico-underground nexus'.
In fact, then Governor in Assam Lt Gen S K Sinha (retired) had submitted detailed reports of such ground situations.
We are not at all suggesting the incumbent power(s) in Delhi are not aware of all that. In fact, in June a senior local politician was "informally sounded" to take things as warning.
But coming back to the Sept 19 episode - while we pay homage to two brave hearts - some people ought to understand things better.
Some names doing the round are - "Maj" -- Thoumba, Krishna, Nongnyit and Thoibal. Huge cache of arms also recovered.
These are all subject to confirmation (even spelling) but more names are around and all these from quite convincing sources as of now !!
One advice for Delhi is 'Better late than never'. Control the errand child.
It is being discussed that some cadres and 'self-styled' Majors (as the press release of 1990s would claim) -- are from Heirok and Phayeing.
They were engaged in this anti-Assam Rifles operation.
Yes, one more main accused has been held, goes a refrain from one of the security apparatus. But nothing more.
But it is learnt 'several operatives' had provided ground work and provided assistance to the wrongdoers. That it happened on that route is vital.
However, the security apparatus including police needs more free hand. And the Honourable Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, a former civil servant, understands all that better than any blogger far away in Delhi.
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| Veteran Advani could diagnose, but could not rectify !! |
ends
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