China - Challenges of Ambiguity :::: "US opposes India-Pak conflict as it will distract New Delhi from countering Beijing" - How true ?

The Operation Sindoor has certainly brought back various over and latent issues vis-a-vis India-China relationship and rivalry. There could be ambiguity in ties from both sides. 

In the 1960s or even in the 1950s; China has succeeded in pursuing the interests without alienating some of its key regional powers while negotiating the conflicts often with major powers.

India often played things ideologically and by the systems of values and principles. Hence in many cases - New Delhi came out at the receiving end. Diplomacy is more ruthless than people might have presumed. 

China has been always more pragmatic and hence certainly more ruthless than India. China's preference for peace in its immediate defence and foreign policy circle and also within the country is not guided by any ideology. It is just being practical.

All these reflected Beijing's need for a stable environment which is must for its focused approach to economic, political and military modernisation. In Indian story - internal turbulence were immnese.

Jammu and Kashmir kept burning in the north and insurgency also flourished as an industry in north eastern states. The 1970s also saw Naxalism and the violence cult in all these three cases are still prevalent.  

In 1993, the Chinese Central Military Commission in its study report 'Can the Chinese Army win the next year' --- characterised India as the "largest potential threat".

The United States was labeled as an "open adversary" and Vietnam was called "unpredictable super killer".

Suitable 'adjectives" were given to Japan, Russia.

Perhaps needless to add in 2025 -- Pakistan and other Middle Eastern countries were not considered threats to China.

So essentially we get to know the "Chinese mindset".  If there is a paradox in Chinese approach to its policy --- it is deliberate. 

One could say, Beijing's "policy" in general sense is guided by its policy towards India and is "sustained" by its Pakistan policy.

This makes the roles of Pakistan and China hyper-importance to each other. Beijing is not comfortable in giving any edge in the Indian Ocean. China developed commercial and military presence in Myanmar through Yunnan and also Coco and Hyunghai islands. 

Further complexity is added when China not only disfavours India's claim to be a key 'Indian Ocean power'; it wants for itself to emerge as both the Indian Ocean and Pacific naval powers. 

These may bring us to the relevance of what UK security expert Dr Walter Ladwig has stated post Operation Sindoor.

He said the US is opposing India-Pakistan conflict as it could distract India from countering China. Walter also praises India's precision strikes and policy shift on war against terror post-Pahalgam attack.

Now after Pakistan's fiasco during India's Operation Sindoor; Chinese are upset and furious for yet another aspcct in geo-politics. The 'defeat' of Pakistanis have upset China strategically but it is also major "commercial setback".

Beijing has let loose some of its "tutored" experts to speak about efficacy of Chinese defence system as supplied to Pakistan.  A discourse is unleashed to tell the world and also the domestic crowd in China and Pakistan that India had suffered defeat. This message is also designed aiming at potential arms buyers, especially the Middle East against Israel.

Chinese experts say Pakistan getting a drubbing from India is a constant fear in the minds of the Chinese.

Beijing is gauging the mood of the Modi government as to how far New Delhi could now go on its mission Akhand-Bharat. 

Analyst Zhang Shizhao has been quoted in media that -- Securing full control over the Kashmir region by India would not only consolidate its territorial position but also pave the way for enhanced cooperation and benefits from the United States. 

This will hamper Chinese interests in more ways than one and in multiple ways.

Beijing is now upset that all its investments the Belt and Road Initiative may go waste.

An argument is also being pushed that this four-day conflict since May 6-7 night happened because India wants a war. 

This argument will have to be negated strongly by India and also the seven parliamentary delegations. 

There is also a related development and that's in the eastern sector. Reports say a recent visit by a Chinese delegation to the Lalmonirhat airbase in Bangladesh is a vital matter. The base is located just about 20 km from India's strategically crucial the Siliguri Corridor. 

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