'Five years back, several factors worked in favor of Congress' party. But AAP is more serious fighter in 2022: Gujarat Elections

A defeat, or even a poor performance, in Gujarat will be hard for BJP to swallow. The party has been in power in the state since 1995, winning three consecutive elections in 2002, 2007 and 2012. 

Six years before Narendra Modi took over the leadership in Gujarat in 2001, the saffron party has never lost Gujarat election.

 Gujarat Elections ---- Voting in two phases on Dec 1 and Dec 5

(89 segments) in the first phase and Dec 5 (93 segments) in second phase !!

Counting of votes Dec 8

In the last election in 2017, Congress gave a big fight ..... the BJP won 99 seats. (49.05 percent votes) the Congress won 77, winning 42.97 per cent of the votes... BJP is in power since mid-nineties  

Five years back, several factors worked in favor of the Congress party. 

There was a backlash over Patidars' anguish against the BJP, general mood against incumbents as BJP is in power since 1995 and there were arguably popular anger over PM Narendra Modi's alleged 'inability' to deliver on his promises especially on the job front etc. There was so-called 'Gabbar Singh Tax' - to borrow a phrase from Rahul Gandhi - and all these said to have worked in favor of Rahul Gandhi's party.

Rahul had blamed the prime minister for "squeezing employment opportunities" in the country and asked "where are the two crore (20 million) annual jobs, promised by the BJP in 2014?"

However, the Congress lacked BJP's political machinery and networking at the grassroots level. Though put up a good fight, the Congress could not unseat Gujarat - where Modi was Chief Minister from 2001 to 2014. 

Meanwhile, according to 'Indian Express' - one significant change from 2017 is the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is threatening to give both the BJP and Congress a 'strong contest'.

It is generally presumed that the AAP will cut into the Congress votes. 

In 2012, when Modi was still CM, the BJP had won 115 seats and 47.85% votes. The Congress tally was 61 seats and 38.93% votes, indicating the huge jump the party would make five years later, largely on the strength of the Patidar quota agitation against the BJP government. 

Despite 'wake up' call in Gujarat, 'Moditva magic' works for BJP --2017 blog headline 

The 'Moditva' as a brand must have survived in the year 2017 for the BJP but the outcome of just concluded Gujarat elections that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi make blistering campaigns left a few crucial political lessons for Modi-Amit Shah duo.

In the ultimate for BJP, Modi remains its star face and it was purely his 'mass appeal' that saw BJP successfully brave 22-year-old incumbency in Gujarat -- even as the number of seats declined by 16 from what was in 2012.