Five years back in 2017, the BJP faced some tough questions and hence stiff electoral competition in South Gujarat.
The issue in debate was demonetisation and GST - which Rahul Gandhi even dubbed as the 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. The competition was fierce in the Surat region though here people ultimately had reposed faith in the saffron party and on the leadership of Narendra Modi.
The refrain among the trading community and others was that the Prime Minister will ultimately take a decision which is "good for the country and the people '' and the blackmoney ought to be curtailed.
But all these came to the fore only when the results for the polls in 2017 came in. That year after GST was enforced nationwide, anger against the BJP simmered.
Gujarat’s richest city Surat's textile and diamond traders shut down markets protesting the imposition of the new tax norms.
The usual complaint was that crores of profits would be 'wiped out'. But when the results came in of the 16 seats in Surat district, the Congress could win just one and
much to the delight of poll strategists and systematic campaigners like the then Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, the Lotus party retained all 12 seats in Surat city.
"I have been proved right...," Jaitley later summed up the verdict.
But the BJP strategists are walking cautiously in the politically sensitive region.
Thus, seats like Varachha are important this year.
The BJP has thus decided to renominate Kumar Kanani (sitting MLA) in this
Patidar-dominated seat.
"Some calculations are necessary, and all issues have been handled well by the BJP," says a local trader.
This region might actually see a three-way tussle as the newcomer AAP had won all the municipal corporation
ward seats in Varachha.
Moreover, AAP's candidate will be PAAS Convener Alpesh Kathiria.
Similarly, the BJP has repeated MLA Purnesh Modi in Surat West.
In Katargam as well where Patidars and OBC voters are key players, the BJP is fielding
its sitting MLA and minister of state Vinu Moradia. He will be pitted against AAP's
state president Gopal Italia among others.
But in another Patidar stronghold Kamrej, the BJP has replaced V D Zalawadia
and instead shown confidence in Praful Panseria.
Among other seats in South Gujarat, BJP is yet again fielding
minister of state for home Harsh Sanghavi from Majura. The party had won the seat in 2017 by a big margin.
In Limbayat, also part of Surat, Sangeeta Patil will be BJP candidate. She had won the seat in 2017 and also
in 2012.
The party's foot-soldiers in Surat region say unlike other areas in Gujarat, where the party has replaced candidates
and even showed faith in Congress defectors, the BJP has retained most well known sitting faces in the region.
In Surat East, while the AIMIM is likely to field a candidate, the Congress too will be banking on
minority voters. Here too, the BJP's nominee is Arvind Shantilal Rana.
In 2017, Rana had trounced Congress leader Nitin Bharucha by a margin of 13,347 votes.
In Olpad, the saffron party has shown trust in Mukesh Patel, who has won the seat in 2012 and also in 2017.
This seat is also a saffron forte since 1990 when Bhagubhai Patel had won the seat.
Dhansukhbhai Patel and Kiritbhai Patel also represented this key segment.
Of the 160 candidates named by BJP on Nov 9, only 69 sitting MLAs got tickets.
In Ahmedabad, out of 12 seats named, only two including Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel has been renominated.
ends
Gujarat Battle of 2022: Power politics triggered in tribal belt
The ruling BJP has staged a coup in the tribal belt in the run up to the battle of 2022.
The 10-time MLA Mohansinh Rathava representing the prestigious Chhota Udepur constituency in central Gujarat has quit the Congress and switched over to the saffron party.
It is being stated that Rathava, 79, is 'displeased' as he failed to convince the Congress leadership to heed his request and field his son Ranjitsinh from the seat.
The 'breakthrough' is vital as despite losing elections since the 1990s, the Congress had a strong grip in these areas.
The Lotus party's poll strategists now believe that they can muster a better hold in Gujarat's tribal belt, which has as many as 27 assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribe.
Of these 27 seats, in 2012 -- which was Narendra Modi's last assembly polls, the BJP had won 10 leaving 16 for Congress while one seat had gone to the Janata Dal (U).
Five years back in 2017 elections, the Congress bagged 15 seats while the saffron party managed 8 and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chhotu Vasava could pick up two constituencies, and one seat had gone to an independent.
The BJP had recently organized one episode of 'Gujarat Gaurav Yatra' in this tribal belt in eastern part of
the state.
In Gujarat, the tribal population accounts for about 16 percent of total population and the
community is largely spread across 14 eastern districts. In a real political sense, the tribal population is
concentrated in 48 talukas but in total they make a difference in as many as 53 talukas.
While the battle for supremacy among the tribal areas is between Congress and BJP, the
AAP has tried to establish a toehold with an alliance with BTP.
However, Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) later withdrew and despite Arvind Kejriwal addressing three rallies
in the region, the tribal people are apparently not much impressed with the third player.
On the occasion of World Tribal Day on August 9th, Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel wanted to make it
clear that for him and his party, tribal welfare and uplift figure prominently in the list of priorities irrespective
of any electoral factor.
Speaking at a function at Jhalod, Chief Minister Patel made it clear that during the last two decades, the tribal
families residing in the entire stretch of 53 talukas from Ambaji to Umergaon in Gujarat have
benefitted from the Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojana.
This scheme was launched during the stint of Modi as the Chief Minister.
The Chhota Udepur seat has long been a Congress bastion but in 2002, the BJP won it and had repeated the feat
even in 2007. Congress veteran Sukhram Rathava won it continuously from 1985 to 2002 and yet again
Mohansinh Rathava could wrest it back for the Congress in 2012 and 2017.
"We have a bright prospect to do well in the tribal belt and win at least 18-20 seats if not more," says Gujarat
Tribal Development Minister Naresh Patel.
Mohansinh Rathava has not lost an election since 1972 barring the 2002 polls which saw an unprecedented
saffron wave under Modi. Of course, he has a long political oneupmanship issue with Rajya Sabha MP Naran
Rathava, who also wants the Congress party to accommodate his son.
Thus the neo defection game is seen as a prelude to a gamechanger politics in the tribal segment of India's
western state.
Now due to sustained political works and developmental measures carried out in the region and a special
focused attention laid by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Gujarat Minister for Tribal Development
Naresh Patel says the BJP has set a target of winning 20 seats from 27 from the tribal belt.
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