What ails Congress in Gujarat, but why Rahul stayed away from campaign?

Ahmedabad/Rajkot 

Gujarat elections are often reflections of socio-political churning. The Patidar agitation should be seen from that prism.

Prior to that the state saw so-called 'Hindu unity' and polarisation politics. In the past -- the eighties was a decade of caste mobilisation.

But it is also a given fact that though labeled as 'Hindutva laboratory', the Congress party has always enjoyed a considerable support base. 

Even during the peak of 2002 riots and Hindu polarisation, the Congress
vote share was not negligible. 

Narendra Modi and his 'Moditva' phenomenon though hyped faced a lot of hardships. The same challenge was seen in 2007 also. 

BJP's vocal Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma from Assam recently visited the western state for campaigning and was surprised to note that in the Kutch region, local BJP workers and leaders told him, "Sir, do not highlight the AAP factor here. Our main rival in the Kutch is the Congress".

The BJP poll strategists have since tried to rework the equations.   

Himanta told this journalist, "It is important to note that the Congress remains a major force despite

the Modi factor in Gujarat elections. But we have the big trump card and which makes all the difference that

is Moditva phenomenon". At the same breadth he says, "The social media and other players have only hyped

AAP factor. They will not make much of a difference other than a few typical Patidar pockets".

These sum up paradoxical factors of Gujarat elections and socio-political permutation and combination.

In Ahmedabad, an educationist Mrinmoy Ghosh says, "In Gujarat a new set of ideas come into play from

time to time. This is not understood from outside and many may not feel that even staying for two-three months

in Ahmedabad. The transformation starts from rural pockets. The old status quo comes under challenge

by new assertive forces".

Others tend to agree. The Patidar agitation of 2015 was one such phenomenon. And prior to that there was

Hindu polarisation. "If there is a quality of unsettledness of Gujarat politics, it is due to frequent agitational

habit of mobilisation".

Businessman Basant Ray says, "You will not agree to me but Gujarat is actually a very strong pocket for Congress

traditionally. Former CM and a RSS man Shankersinh Vaghela understood that and he himself joined

Congress. But the only difference is the powerful Narendra Modi image. He has come in the way for Congress

revival".

These would lead us to question the reason why Congress leaders and especially Rahul Gandhi stayed away from

Gujarat campaign this year.

A Muslim leader in Gujarat Congress told this journalist, "This is our tragedy sir...High Command did not understand

the importance of Gujarat. Some of us wrote to Digvijaya Singh and Rahul Gandhi himself and told him the Bharat

Jodo Yatra should have started from Gujarat".

Closer scrutiny suggests perhaps Rahul Gandhi has committed a series of mistakes on Gujarat strategy.

First, unlike 2017, he stayed away from the campaign. Secondly, some controversial remarks were made

on Savarkar and thirdly, he allowed being photographed with Medha Patkar.

Let us look at these step by step. The remarks on Savarkar were not called for because this only brings

back Hindutva politics in the debate. This is BJP's strength and the Congress weakness especially

in the context of Gujarat.

Sociologists say every decade in Gujarat has seen prolonged agitation and each liberating new forces

and tapping dormant sentiments. The water movement related to Narmada and Sardar Sarovar project was

one such stir. In this, they say, Medha Patkar is seen as a blatant 'anti-Gujarat'.

The explanation is -- who needs a 'friend' when Modi has Rahul Gandhi and his misguided team in the

Congress.

The socio-political changes on ground compel political leaders and parties to "devise" processes and fashion

multi-pronged institutions to harness 'new vibrancy'. For BJP, both Late Keshubhai Patel and Narendra Modi

had played those 'agents' of social change.

Keshubhai used to tell Dalits - "If you are Dalit, I am also Dalit. If I am Patel you are also Patel...Because

we both are Hindus". This was in the 1990s and slowly such approaches broke the caste games in Gujarat

and Hindutva slowly emerged.

Modi played Hindutva and punctuated it with development. He also played Gujarati asmita -- a key factor in Gujarat

politics for the last 10-15 years. He dubbed Congress - ironically a party of Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Patel - as anti-Gujarati.

 This worked so well that today - Sardar Patel is seemingly a pro-BJP Hindutva icon. Modi's powerful phrases 'Mia Musharraf'

and 'Sonia ben' made a huge impact and Congress had no clue to counter these.

Of course by 2014-15, the Congress was back in the game with Patidar politics. Fortunately Dalits were also

wooed and also Thakors. But there was no consistency and once Ahmed Patel expired, the Congress lost even

a figment of imagination to try new experiments.

"The worst of all in our list of mistakes is 2022 indifferent shown by the Congress high command. It was a case

of criminal negligence," says the Muslim Congress leader. 

Minute analyses of socio-political battles in Gujarat could lead to diagnosis of some of the malady.

Old timers in Ahmedabad say Navnirman Movement was another major factor in Gujarat politics. 

It had played havoc with the party system. People like Keshubhai Patel and Narendra Modi understood

these better. Both had played individual-centric politics keeping the broad Hindutva base alongside.

This had in the past also led to a new characteristic of Gujarat politics. Madhavsinh Solanki successfully played KHAM 

(Kshatriya, Harjan, Adivasi and Muslim) card but it was all his show. At later stages, Congress lost ground

because Congress high command did not allow a major face to emerge.

Sonia Gandhi experimented with Veghela - but he was a RSS man at the end of the day.

Organisational loyalty especially in the Congress camp, obedience and discipline took a beating. At local

level MLAs and other leaders could change positions and pretensions overnight and they did not invite any

electoral punishment - provided they went with the right leaders. Unfortunately for Congress, they did not

have a popular face locally. Amarsinh Chaudhary was a tribal but a meek leader who was 'imposed'

from Delhi during the Rajiv Gandhi-Arun Nehru era. He thought blind sycophancy was his best quality.

Thus, obviously Modi and Keshubhai Patel attracted leaders and followers like any fairy tale.

But Solanki's over dependence on the KHAM fetched initial dividends. This also gradually alienated upper castes

and Brahmins, Patels and Banias from Congress. 

At the national level came Mandal politics. In Gujarat, Solanki had won 149 seats in the 1985 polls.

"Gujarat politics was again headed for a transition....The anti-reservation sentiment was pushed by RSS,

alienated Patels and also the Gujarati press...Slowly it turned communal also as BJP launched Rath

Yatra and in the national politics Ayodhya Movement made waves. Things simply changed," says analyst

Basant Ray.

However, he hastened to add in all these that Congress was still a powerful political force. Therefore the so-called

Third Front party of Janata Politics never survived for long.

But in the 2022 polls, the Congress went away from the scene and now it remains to be seen whether AAP is a factor. The Patidars would have a large say in the game of the AAP; and hence the BJP did play its card when Bhupendra Patel was made the Chief Minister.

ends 

Rahul woos voters in 'BJP's weak spot' Saurashtra and Surat region 

Rajkot/Surat

Better late than never!  The Congress is finally in its combative mood -- so essential to weaken 'Modi Magic' in the Prime Minister's native state of Gujarat.

Electioneering has picked up in Gujarat even as hardly a week is left for campaigning for the first phase of polls on December 1.

Congress 'star campaigner' and Bharat Jodo protagonist Rahu Gandhi
addressed two public rallies on Monday (Nov 21) as part of the party's campaign and ridiculed what  he said the BJP follows a "corruption, nepotism and commission model".

Sensing the general mood he spoke on the Morbi Bridge collapse tragedy and said no action has been taken 
against the "real culprits" while the helpless security guard has been put behind bars.
He alleged that the BJP follows a "corruption and commission model".
He also dwelt on issues related to farmers' loans, tribal welfare and unemployment.
In Rajkot, the Saurashtra heartland, Gandhi said while watchmen who were posted at the site of the 
accident were arrested and jailed, no action was taken against the real culprits. 
He suggested probably nothing would happen to the real culprits of the tragedy as they have 
a "good relationship with BJP".

The Morbi bridge collapse certainly would haunt BJP and its hyped Good Governance model.

The former Congress president also said that farmers have told him that their loans of Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lakh 

are not waived off by the state government but the loans amounting to crores of the "three to four richest figures in 

India" are waived off.

"If the farmers don’t return the loans, they are called defaulters, but if the crorepatis do the same, it’s called 

non-performing assets and no action is taken against them," said Rahul Gandhi.

In 2017 assembly polls, the agrarian Saurashtra region had played havoc for the BJP and forced it's strength to

go below 100 -- that is 99. In 201, the BJP had won as many as 115 seats.

In 2017, riding on the support of the Patidar movement and also encashing the distress of groundnut and cotton growers, the Congress could add seats around Amreli and also Somnath, Talala, and Kodinar to its kitty.

Four key seats of Dhari, Lathi, Savarkundla and Rajula seats in Amreli district also went to Congress.

Importantly, the BJP's defeat came five years back in the prestigious Somnath seat wherein Jasha Barad, the sitting BJP MLA and a minister, was humbled by Congress nominee Vimal Chudasama. 

The Congress successfully dislodged the BJP from Amreli district - winning all five seats. The BJP nominees were humbled in three seats in neighbouring Gir Somnath district.

Thus, observers say though belated Rahul Gandhi's visit and campaign trail to Rajkot on Monday, Nov 21

was crucial.

"Even in 2022, we will do well in the Saurashtra region," says a Congress leader, Bobbhai Parmar in Rajkot.

He adds, "Saurashtra region will yet again pose a herculean task for the BJP as the saffron party faces 

infighting, ineffective political management and of course overall misgovernance". 

Though putting up a brave face, BJP poll strategists at the local level in places like Amreli say

the Saurashtra region "encompassing 11 districts made all the difference in 2017 elections as out of the 16 seats 

loss for the BJP from the 2012 tally of 115, as many as 13 of them came from the Saurashtra region.

Congress workers in the Lathi area say the Patidar parents are in dilemma. They want children to become doctors

and engineers. But all seats are reserved for others. The crop insurance also failed to address farmers' problems.

Moreover, in Amreli district, with about 45-50 per cent of the population being Patidars and about 8-10 per cent Muslims, the 

Congress knows there are "inherent advantages". 

 

Speaking in Surat, Rahul Gandhi focused on tribals and said the BJP wants to marginalise them by calling 

them "forest-dwellers" but the Congress party wants to give all the rights to the tribals as they are 

the "owners of the country". 

He also compared the work of the two parties on NREGA and said the Congress government brought the scheme 

for tribals and gave employment to all but the "BJP came and took away the land of tribals and scammed NREGA".

Five years back in 2017, the BJP faced tough questions and hence stiff electoral competition in South Gujarat and

Surat region. Though in the ultimate, the BJP did well in Surat city and won all 12 seats, the 'latent anguish'

against joblessness and GST prevails.

The issue was hotly debated and Rahul Gandhi had even dubbed the GST as the 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. 

 

Gujarat’s richest city Surat's textile and diamond traders shut down markets protesting the imposition of the

new tax norms. But when the results came in of the 16 seats in Surat district, the Congress could win just one.

Things were for delight of poll strategists and systematic campaigners like the then Finance Minister

Arun Jaitley, now deceased.

The Congress feels there were local booth management problems.

But in 2022 polls, the AAP is likely to be a major factor in Surat and other seats in South Gujarat.

Thus, closer scrutiny of voters' mood in the region suggest

seats like Varachha, Surat West and Katargam would be important in this year's polls.

In Katargam, the Patidars and OBC voters are key players and so the BJP is cautious and has hence fielded 

its sitting MLA and minister of state Vinu Moradia. He will be pitted against AAP's state president Gopal Italia among others. 

In Varachha, the BJP has decided to renominate Kumar Kanani (sitting MLA) in this

Patidar-dominated seat. 

"Some calculations are necessary, and all issues have been handled well by the BJP," says a local trader.

Of course, this region is most likely set to see a three-way tussle as the newcomer AAP had won all the 

municipal corporation ward seats in Varachha. Moreover, AAP's candidate will be PAAS Convener Alpesh Kathiria.

The PAAS had led the Patidar reservation stir in 2015.

Similarly, the BJP has repeated MLA Purnesh Modi in Surat West.

But in another Patidar stronghold Kamrej, the BJP has replaced V D Zalawadia

and instead shown confidence in Praful Panseria. Among other seats in South Gujarat, BJP is yet again fielding

minister of state for home Harsh Sanghavi from Majura. The party had won the seat in 2017 by a big margin.

In Limbayat, also part of Surat, Sangeeta Patil will be BJP candidate. She had won the seat in 2017 and also

in 2012.

In Surat East, while the AIMIM has fielded a candidate, the Congress too will be banking on

minority voters. Here too, the BJP's nominee is Arvind Shantilal Rana, a sitting member.

In 2017, Rana had trounced Congress leader Nitin Bharucha by a margin of 13,347 votes.

Wrap up:

Gujarat elections are often reflections of socio-political churning. The Patidar agitation should be

seen from that prism.

Prior to that the state saw so-called 'Hindu unity' and polarisation politics. In the past -- the eighties

was a decade of caste mobilisation.

But it is also a given fact that though labeled as 'Hindutva laboratory', the Congress party has always enjoyed

a considerable support base. Even during the peak of 2002 riots and Hindu polarisation, the Congress

vote share was not negligible.

Narendra Modi and his 'Moditva' phenomenon though hyped faced a lot of hardships. The same challenge

was seen in 2007 also.