Strategic questions haunt wider Af-Pak region, global players
New Delhi:
If India’s role in development diplomacy is also taken into account, the ‘Afghan story’ so far has been that of anecdotes of a loose alliance between dispensation(s) in Kabul and communist Russia, Islamic religious and moneyed-Saudi lobby, occasional games by Iran and the powerful US.
‘Foreign interference’ is an oft-heard phrase in diplomacy. Generally, the country which faces ‘foreign interference’ has grievances and serious complaints; but in the case of Afghanistan – the table seems to have turned.
The reasons being – Afghanistan itself has been the scene of ‘foreign power’ actions for over a century now.
There are bigger issues at stake in the region. Will the region become a next ground for conflicts between Taliban and IS?
IS considers Shias as infidels and this never went down well with Iran.
The Taliban-Al Qaeda link is of course one area of concern.
Iran is a well known Shia powerhouse and Taliban – a monopoly of Sunnis, so how would things progress here ?
In the 1990s, Taliban faced problems from Iran when the latter helped US forces to ‘topple’ Taliban in 2001. Will the ongoing tension between the US and countries such as Iran, Russia and China worsen further?
Iran has over the years mobilized Shia communities throughout the Middle East for the protection of the Assad regime. In the past too, the Iranian security agencies have recruited a large number of Afghan and Pakistani Shias to fight in Syria.
All eyes may be now on Beijing, Moscow and Tehran and whether they form any kind of a lasting axis to take on Washington.
The Quad formed by the US, India, Japan and Australia has already been a ‘pain’ in the neck for Russia and China.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his chief foreign policy aides, Dr S Jaishankar and Ajit Doval, are aware of the way things could turn.
Thus they have taken right initiatives by way of interactions at the highest level between PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
In the 20th century, the British and Russian empires did play so-called intervention roles. Subsequently, the United States chipped in and provided arms and logistic support to eject Russians. This happened in the 1980s and this was also the period when Pakistan was the ‘blue-eyed’ boy of Uncle Sam.
Much later, the terrorism thrived with support from Saudi lobby and then Al-Qaeda made the region the base to strike with their infamous misadventure of all time - the 9/11.
Yet again the country is in turmoil and it has all the potential to influence and disturb the entire region and also the global polity.
In the new circumstance, as the US and its NATO partners make a retreat rather sheepishly, Afghanistan could soon again turn a theatre of international games by a few neo and old players, namely Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia.
But in all these changing games and so on; one thing is permanent. Mistrust remains the biggest player in more ways than one.
Pakistan has put all its eggs in the ‘Taliban basket’ to create a possible fighting-cushion against India.
But what would happen if the ‘monster’ they have created gets it on its neck.
China, Russia and Iran – all have their respective ‘interests’ and games.
From the sidelines, but importantly, India needs to be careful that the next round of Mujahideen and Islamic radical games do not get a kickoff in Kashmir.
New Delhi has started exploring the possibilities of banning Hurriyat to start with.
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Three years between Modi and Imran; who won ?
New Delhi:
Imran Khan has completed three years in office. His Indian counterpart Narendra Modi – who has offered himself as a macho nationaist and a Hindu leader – is in office for little over seven years now.
Modi is in power for next three years till May 2024 and Imran - it is expected - will be in office till August 2023 if there is no military intervention.
In between these years, many new things and path-breaking episodes unfolded between two countries and intellectuals have been debating much about the so-called perception war.
Well, leaders are made by people. English media and select websites in particular in India guided by their holier-than and know-all ivory tower expertise can have misnomers, and they have to live with those.
While Modi has retained a vice-like grip in two Lok Sabha elections spaced between five years (2014 and 2019), he has been BJP’s trump card in most state elections – even the tough ones like West Bengal in 2021 and Karnataka in 2018.
From media reports in Pakistan, it is suggested Imran Khan and his party too have been 'popular' and perhaps also marginalised rivals such as PPP in its bastion Sindh province and PML (Nawaz) elsewhere.
“Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is now touted as an alternative to Prime Minister Imran Khan if the PPP can stitch together a coalition for the next elections,” says a commentary by Fahf Hussain in ‘Dawn’.
Modi’s case has been luckier as the opposition in India are still in search of a good clue to prepare a road map.
The talk about an alternative leader is out of question as of now.
The biggest tussle and battle of nerves between Modi and Imran came in February 2019. India retaliated Pulwama terror attack by bombing some terror hideouts and Pakistan struck back, shooting down an Indian fighter jet and capturing pilot Abhinandan Varthaman.
Imran Khan also later announced his release and a section hailed the move as ‘reverse swing’ by the former cricket legend.
The truth of the matter is Islamabad got a firm warning from New Delhi that they will have to release Abhinandan unconditionally and in sound health and body.
The story of Indian ‘warning’ was shared by a top source in the Modi government to a select group of journalists.
India's message was very clear - We will not talk. 130 crore Indians want our pilot Abhinandan released.
The Pak PM decision to 'send back' the Indian pilot was understood by overwhelming Indians in its true sense.
Time has dulled Pakistan's memory in more ways than one. Thus, notwithstanding the claim of enforcing principles of 'Naya Pakistan' - as claimed by Imran Khan - Islamabad has not yet given up the old habits of trying to thrive in propaganda.
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| New Axis: India-US-Afghan.... Failed ?? |
One says this because RIC – Russia, India and China after foreign ministers meeting at Wuzhen, (China), Feb 27 (2019) had issued a strong statement against terror and ‘breeding grounds’.
Mike Pompeo, the then US Secretary of State, spoke to Pak foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and urged Pakistan to take meaningful action against terrorist groups "operating in its soil”.
These facts are generally missed out in ‘sickular’ and anti-Modi media narratives. UNSC also named Masood Azhar’s JeM in Pulwama teror statement.
During the tenure of PM Imran, on another occasion Pakistan got it on its nose was at The Hague.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) on July 17, 2019 by 15-1 verdict held Kulbhushan Jadhav's conviction by Pakistan wrong.
Of course Imran Khan’s tenure would also go down the memory lane in Pakistan that saw abrogation of Article 370 by the Modi government, and it could do nothing much about it.
Episodes like 'Howdy Modi' in Houston and 'Namaste Trump' in Ahmedabad would definitely not add any feather to Imran's cap.
Earlier on Sept 21, 2018, then MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar had given Imran Khan a taste of 'an assertive new India'.
"It's obvious that behind Pakistan's proposal for talks (between foreign ministers in US) to make a fresh beginning, the evil agenda of Pakistan stands exposed and the true face of new Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has been revealed to the world in his first few months in the office".
Pakistan invested a lot of money and military-diplomatic time for the Kartarpur Corridor. Its army chief also embraced a state-level Indian politician Navjot Singh Sidhu.
However, the historic Ayodhya verdict was delivered on Nov 9, 2019 - the day the corridor was opened. It certainly deprived Imran and Pakistan the so-called 'international media publicity' as the entire South Asia and rest of the world for about a fortnight spoke only about the Ram Temple verdict.
In between there have been other episodes, Sushma Swaraj became the first Indian foreign minister to address the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on March 1, 2019. Pak Minister helplessly stayed away.
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| Sushma at OIC, March 1, 2019 |
On Feb 23, 2019, PM Modi in an election rally at Tonk in Rajasthan had dared Imran Khan to prove his words on the fight against poverty.
''Aaj Pakistan ke pradhan mantri ke shabdoan ko kasauti pe kasne ki jarurat hai...(Time has come for him to prove his own words) Let me see whether he can prove to be truthful to his own words,'' Modi had said.
Recalling his first telephone talk with Mr Khan after his poll victory in 2018, Modi said ''I had told him you are from the world of sports... Come let India and Pakistan get their act together and fight poverty and illiteracy.''
In response, he had told me that he (Imran) is a son of a Pathan and he will always speak the truth and also do things in the right manner.... Thus time has come for him to prove his own words".
Well, Imran Khan still needs to walk the talk. In between, of course, India has been telling the world about Islamabad's terror friendly approaches.
On June 24, 2021, Arindam Bagchi, MEA spokesman, said: “...And the world knows what Pakistan has brought to Afghanistan".
He also said to ensure normal relations with India, Pakistan must work towards creating a conducive atmosphere, including by taking credible, verifiable and irreversible actions to not allow any territory under its control to be used for cross border terrorism against India in any manner.”
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