New Delhi:
The ‘American anguish and ego-hurt’ in Afghanistan can be turned into a big advantage for the Modi regime in India.
It is true, the Taliban's stunning return to power in Afghanistan and desperate scenes of thousands trying to flee Kabul, have cast a grim shadow over the United States' status as a superpower.
Thus, when it comes to assessing things post Taliban takeover, all eyes are on China, Russia and India.
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| Snap: The Economist |
One need not talk about Pakistan in specific terms as it would come automatically given their ‘deep’ relations.
The Chinese ought to be careful about possible interference and influence of the Talibans on the Uyghurs. The Russians have their concerns about the Chechens and India has Kashmir as well as Pakistan.
Islamabad has over the years invested time, men and money and sponsored groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba to bleed India.
Pakistan and its eco system may presume it has an edge, but India's ‘advantages would be its proximity to the United States who would see reason on why New Delhi has been crying about ‘state sponsored terrorism’ at least since 1990s.
There is also considerable presence of Indian investment and interest in infrastructure building in Afghanistan.
This, the new rulers may not ignore so easily. Dr Jaishankar told a western journalist in the UN premises last week
- "Look, first of all, you (the journalist) used the word investment, for us it reflected what was the historical relationship with the Afghan people. I think that relationship with the Afghan people obviously continues and that will guide our approach in Afghanistan in the coming days".
Pakistan has other issues. What happens to the possibility of expeditious return of the three million refugees that have been living in Pakistan perhaps since the Soviet invasion of 1979.
Taliban has said they will not let their territory be used in other countries' affairs.
Obviously, the Modi government has to take these words with a sizable spoon of salt. A pinch may be too little!
For now, in terms of its diplomatic parlance with the Americans, India needs to be focused on driving home a point that to handle Afghanistan and Taliban effectively, you ought to know how to handle Pakistan.
The western formula of handling Pakistan so far has been erroneous and instead has boomeranged.
No less than a former US President Barack Obama has written in his book, 'A Promised Land' : "That the US government had long tolerated such behavior from a purported ally—supporting it with billions of dollars in military and economic aid despite its complicity with violent extremists ..said something about the pretzel-like logic of US foreign policy".
Indian foreign policy engine room can always underline that it is now the right time to 'correct' that major lapse in Washington's foreign policy towards Pakistan.
There is already a realisation. In recent years, the US has stopped addressing India and Pakistan with a hyphen. They need to do more.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has urged the UNSC to take up an eight-point road map. These include a few steps such as Summoning the political will: Do not justify terrorism, don’t glorify terrorists, No double standards, Terrorists are terrorists and recognize the linkage to organized crime and Support and strengthen the FATF.
Left to some Indian experts, it is the right time for the US and other countries to back India – if they are sincere about fighting the terror menace.
For Americans it is more than a prestige issue in circa 2021.
This is the first time in 46 years since Vietnam that the Americans have been defeated on the battlefield by a guerrilla force.
This ‘American anguish and ego-hurt’ should be made use of by India as an ‘advantage’ tool.
After having chased out within weeks of bombardment, the Taliban has struck back after 20 years. While as ‘insurgents’ they were rural based and rustic, on the other hand, the US had manpower, NATO and other global support sources and sophisticated communication systems, to monitor the Taliban's every move.
Yet, they failed. Yet, they could not.
No amount of bravado by President Joe Biden that such chaos was expected can
salvage the lost prestige.
The US money, somewhat generous outflow only encouraged corruption for the Ghani dispensation specially at all levels. The corruption menace prevailed under Karzai also.
Career diplomat, Shyam Saran has described the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan as “a Taliban invasion sponsored and abetted by Pakistan”.
This is a crucial point in all recent arguments.
So Americans suffered the humiliation from a country whom they have been providing with money and all other assistance.
There is also a merit in the argument that while Taliban native men fought vigorously, the same Afghan forces – as Biden says – did not have the 'will’ to fight.
A simple question of logic says, how could both the things go together.
India should try to lead the United States to switch plans to counter terrorism from counter-insurgency and this could go a long way and also yield rich dividends.
If there was betrayal, all such acts ought to be punished. That's elementary justice.
ends
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