Note-ban had no impact, says BJP chief; happy about good show in Amethi, Rae Bareli

Demonetisation had no adverse impact in this year's Assembly elections, BJP chief Amit Shah said here today, in more than joyous mood, when he said the saffron party's performance was particularly laudable in Amethi and Rae Bareli, the two known strongholds  of Congress party. 

"Of 10 seats in Rae Bareli and Amethi, we are winning six seats by big margins and this is making us very happy. From now on, politics will take a new direction in UP," Mr Shah told reporters. Congress President Sonia Gandhi is the elected MP from Rae Bareli, while Amethi is represented by her son Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP President said the impact of BJP's performance in these elections will be seen in other states also and there is "new era" for UP since independence - where henceforth, politics will be devoid of caste, creed and religious identities, there would not be appeasement either. "It is now proven that since Independence, Modiji is the most popular Prime Minister of this country...poor of the country love him," Mr Shah said. 
"In fact, the mandate proves that the masses and poor of India are on the side of demonetisation. Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi thoroughly criticised the note ban at every rally," Mr Shah said.  ''We also raised it and it has been proved that people stand together with the Prime Minister on demonetisation,'' he added.

UP's biggest loser Mayawati greatest gainer in vote share since 2014


Despite having faced a crushing defeat the BSP of Ms Mayawati is ironically the only party in UP which has increased its number of votes and vote share in percentage terms since 2014 Lok Sabha elections with all other players including the BJP losing their votes tally.  
         The votes polled in favour of elephant increased to 22.2 pc, which is 2.43 pc more what it got in the last general elections of 2014. The party also added more votes to its kitty since then as in the assembly elections it polled 19,108,397, a jump of over three lakh 20 thousand votes.
        All other major players, including the BJP, lost votes in percentages and in the numbers while adding more seats.
        Though' the BJP managed to keep its vote share of 42 percent completely intact what it polled in the general elections of 2014 riding on the Modi wave in the state, which even mathematically translates into its victory in more than 300 seats.

         The Saffron party lost only 4 lack 22 thousand and seven votes from its vote share of 34318854 which it polled in the last Lok Sabh elections.

Omar Abdullah calls for building up a 'pan-India leader' who can take on Modi

A key Opposition leader and known votary of anti-Narendra Modi politics, Omar Abdullah today sought to caution about the impending political challenge, saying there was hardly any leader "with a pan India acceptability who can take on Modi".
The National Conference leader and the former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir in a series of tweets, said, "In a nutshell there is no leader today with a pan India acceptability who can take on Modi & the BJP in 2019".


Mr Abdullah, who was part of the NDA-1 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and had walked out of the coalition after the Gujarat riots of 2002, also said that criticising  the PM will not take the Opposition very far, nor fetch in electoral dividends. 
The comment could be seen as a veiled attack on top Opposition leaders, including from the Congress, Left and the regional parties, who notwithstanding pursuing anti-BJP politics, have so far failed to create a common platform to fight the saffron party, which particularly is in a resurgent mode electorally, since 2014. 


Reacting to the winning spree of BJP led by Mr Modi, Mr Abdullah said, "At this rate we might as well forget 2019 & start planning/hoping for 2024".
He also said, "I've said this before & I'll say it again the voter needs to be given an alternative agenda that is based on what we will do better. Criticising the PM will only take us so far. The voter needs to know there is an option available to them that has a clear +ve road map".

Congress lapses led to shift of support base of poor to BJP: :

FM Jaitley

New Delhi, Mar 11 (UNI) Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today said  the opposition Congress went totally erratic about its stance on demonetisation and claimed that by its lapses in both "tactic and policy", the Congress party shifted its vote share among the poor and 'nationalistic constituency' to the BJP.

"I think the opposition parties especially the Congress has lot to introspect. Its in both in tactic and in policy. Demonetisation was politically a popular decision and Congress party should have supported it," Mr Jaitley told Doordarshan News.
He said the mandate has only "emboldened" the saffron party further.
To a question, he said as a policy the demonetisation decision should have been "debated" in Parliament, but the opposition parties chose to create disruption.
Such strategies did not go well with the people, he said.
At the same time, Finance Minister said Congress leaders more often endorsing "highly controversial" slogans raised in universities actually allowed the shift in support base and helped BJP emerge as the "sole defender of the nationalistic constituency".

Polls show end of appeasement, caste politics; BJP to form Govt in 4 states: Shah

"These results also mark the end of dynastic politics, caste politics and the politics of appeasement," he said.
"This is a historic victory in more ways than one," he said, adding that probably since Independence, the voters in UP and Uttarakhand put together have given a most decisive mandate.
"After Independence, this is one of the most popular mandates collectively by the voters in the states of UP and Uttarakhand," he said.
Both the states before their split and after have been long suffering poor governance for long, Mr Shah said.
He asserted that the mandate in UP and Uttarakhand and significant increase in BJP's vote share in northeastern state of Manipur meant a clear endorsement of Prime Minister's developmental agenda.
"The mandate this year has proved that the electorate of UP and other states have moved beyond the regimentation of caste, creed and religion. Voters are just voters and they have shown that they want to be with a government that performs," Mr Shah said.

UP polls: Demonetisation fails to dampen prowess of 'Modi Magic'

Coming within months since the Prime Minister announced the demonetisation move, the stunning victory in Uttar Pradesh and improved performance in Uttarakhand and Manipur have come not only as a major reprieve to Narendra Modi but would heighten party president Amit Shah's image as a performing "poll strategist".

 The big take away for the BJP from this year's polls in country's most populous state, according to party insiders, has been the success of party leaders to convince the electorate that the ban on high value old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes was essentially not anti-poor.

In effect, it means the lethal power of 'Modi magic' as was seen in parliamentary polls of 2014 still remains undiluted in more ways than one.

Within no time the trends for the elections came in, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said the mandate in UP especially showed that the people have rejected the opposition charge that demonetisation was anti-poor.  "Its simple. UP results show that people supported demonetisation," said UP BJP spokesperson Mohsin Raza.


"Now that BJP has won UP, these results are a big slap to everyone criticising 'note-bandi' demonetisation," said an enthusiastic BJP worker Pranab Rai, as he distributed sweets to equally jubilant party supporters and cadres.
The opposition parties especially the Congress had tried to make note-ban a major electoral issue.
But the mandate today finally shows people have rather chosen to endorse Mr Modi’s "most controversial policy move" when he had declared about 86 per cent of India’s paper currency illegal. "Demonetisation had caused severe shock," said Congress leader RPN Singh and on the eve of vote count yesterday, another Congress leader Abhishekmanu Singhvi said the election results would not, however, change the 'fact' that the demonetisation was a "historic blunder".

But the mandate only shows, the poor sections believe that Prime Minister did the right thing by hitting the rich and those with black money. In the ultimate analysis, thus questions would be still asked why 'demonetisation' did not upset Modi juggernaut.  One school of thought, including from the likes of Congress leader Mani Shanker Aiyar, said that Prime Minister Modi actually did a great job in selling a 'myth' that demonetisation is pro-poor and pro-masses. 

The short-term impact of demonetisation has been painful, especially for the unorganised sector.

In the run up to the UP polls, bangle industry workers and others in Yadav heartland Firozabad and Shikohabad had also said that the note-ban would affect them adversely. 

 

However, analysts also say the long-term impact of demonetisation is still unclear, as economists have more often differed in giving their analysis on the same. While the likes of Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has called demonetisation as a “despotic action”,agencies such as the World Bank believe that it will be positive.
Other factors those led to BJP's victory is the right caste combinations -- worked by Modi-Amit Shah duo when he could bring about a split between non-Yadavs among OBCs and non-Jatavs among the Dalits.

"The BJP, which has a base among upper-caste Hindus, also used aggressive nationalism as was portrayed during the Ramjas College and Delhi University campuses and corrective steps from the poll debacle in Delhi and Bihar," says a party insider -- who has been in the know of things.
The reference was also to the BJP successfully winning over key leaders from Mayawati-led BSP. BJP leaders also say that in Manipur, the party's performance improved drastically as for the first time the saffron party has emerged as a force to reckon with and gave Congress fight for every inch.
Now that the BJP has able to repeat its success of 2014, it would give a boost to the Prime Minister and also brighten his electoral prospects in 2019.

The BJP's longer-range ambition of improving its numbers in Rajya Sabha and prospect of pursuing economic reforms and implementing 'nationalistic' agenda are also being linked to party's performance in Uttar Pradesh.

ends

Stage set for 2017 Assembly polls Vote Count

New Delhi: Stage is set for counting of votes for elections in five states, including the nation's most populous province of Uttar Pradesh with political observers keeping their fingers crossed after the Exit Polls projection gave the Bharatiya Janata Party an edge in three-four states.

Elections were held in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur besides Uttar Pradesh; but all eyes will be chiefly on UP, which has a 140 million electorate, and sends 80 MPs into the Lok Sabha and 31 to the Rajya Sabha.
The possibility of BJP making a return to power, as claimed by the saffron outfit and as projected by Exit Polls, has made the political game more interesting. Quickly reacting to yesterday's Exit polls surveys, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav indicated that he is wiling to do business with one time arch rival Bahujan Samaj Party.

Ms Mayawati's BSP had recorded a stunning victory in 2007 by combining her Dalit support base with right caste social engineering and is generally credited for giving a better law and order situation under her from 2007 to 2012, when she lost power to the Samajwadi Party. The alleged frivolous spending by her on statues were once a major poll issue for Samajwadi Party and also the BJP.The Congress today indicated that it is also willing to explore post-poll alliance with the BSP supremo. Even as the Congress exuded confidence of romping home comfortably in Uttar Pradesh in alliance with Samajwadi Party, the party spokesman Abhishekh Manu Singhvi said, "We are confident of forming government with our alliance party Samajwadi but if the mandate throws a hung situation (assembly), nature and politics cannot be left in vacuum".
The party is not against exploring possibility of any post-poll "easily available handshake". 
For BJP, the outcome of UP polls is directly linked to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's prestige as he is also Lok Sabha MP from Varanasi.

The BJP also links the outcome of these elections in UP and other states as people's response to highly controversial decision of imposing demonetisation in November 2016. The Congress spokesman said notwithstanding the poll results; it remains a fact that note-ban was "a historic blunder".
The BJP's longer-range ambition of converting its minority status in the Rajya Sabha to majority, implementing controversial Hindutva-nationalistic agenda and second generation economic reforms are alll being linked to party's performance in these polls. 

The exit polls prediction will come true, said BJP leader Subramanian Swamy and claimed that this would mean endorsement to party's Hindutva politics as well.
"If Exit polls are correct then it means that Hindutva with Namo have delivered four of the five states for BJP," he tweeted.

All eyes will be also in the outcome of elections in Punjab, where Akali Dal-BJP combine after a 10-year-long stint may see adverse results, according to projections.
In Manipur, Congress Chief Minister O Ibobi Singh is on the hot seat as he faced an anti-incumbency wave of uninterrupted rule of 15 years.In Uttarakhand, the verdict is being linked to high drama witnessed in the hill state last year when the Centre had imposed President's Rule - but the move was reversed by the Supreme Court.
Fierce elections also went in Goa where in 2012, a large number of minority Christians, had voted in favour of BJP. But the religious minority Christians were not much enthusiastic towards BJP in this year's polls. In political circle, talks were also on whether Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar may be drafted back to state politics. Mr Parrikar, a former Chief Minister, is considered a popular leader and a vote catcher for the BJP in Goa.

(ends)

Does Pak army chief's "democracy advice" indicate some change of narratives?

Often pushed to the corner due to repeated terror strikes and under pressure to deliver 'peace', the Nawaz Sharif regime in Pakistan is reportedly keen to "change the narratives" about its relationship with India especially on problems in Jammu and Kashmir, claim Pakistani sources. Perhaps Mr Sharif wants to go down in history as a leader who delivered what he promised during 2013 general elections - that is an improved relation! 

The Sharif regime's stint ends in 2018 and according to Pakistan Constitution elections are to be held within the 90 days after June 5, 2018. 
According to observers of Indo-Pak relations especially from the Pakistani point of view, the Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa's unusual advice urging top officers read an American academic’s book on how India has succeeded in keeping the military out of politics - is a pointer.
"Our army general has urged top officials to read about Indian democracy. This is not without good reason," said a source. 

This reference is significant as according to media reports, General Qamar Javed Bajwa urged the officers to read 'Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy since Independence' written by Steven I Wilkinson. One vital take away from the book is that the Indian civilian establishment has successfully managed to keep its soldiers in the barracks. The army has to be an apolitical organisation and not the one dictating politics.

Gen Bajwa

"We are waiting for the stalled talks to resume. But not to have formal talks is not the end of the world," a Pakistani source said here suggesting that Islamabad has Plan-B in place and would try to improve relations and especially ensure people-to-people relationship irrespective whether the formal parleys begin or not. In fact during 2013 election campaign, Mr Sharif had made a point to suggest that his government would be promoting trade and investment with India. This was not the first time that Sharif had gambled electorally trying to say that he would work to improve relations with India. He had made similar appeal even in 1997. Nawaz Sharif first became Finance Minister of Punjab province in 1981 and later the Chief Minister in 1985.
A former army corps commander who served in northeast India, once said, “Sharif surpassed Z A Bhutto’s popularity and in 1997 perhaps had emerged as Pakistan’s most popular Prime Minister since Muhammad Ali Jinnah".On a different plane, like most dynamics society, Pakistan too is at crossroads. It has many things of past, which it wants to avoid - may be. Pakistanis were part of the anti-communist bandwagon. In the words of columnist for Pakistani newspaper Dawn, Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, "The irony of history is that at least some of the same proxies that we (read Pakistan) cultivated to wage holy war against the Soviet Union metamorphosed into terrorists that we want to hunt down now". 

While Pakistanis think it is debatable whether any substantive gains have been made in weakening the material and ideological infrastructure that sustains the terror elements - that is the right wing militancy, from the perspective of outsiders there is little to convince that Pakistan is sincere about curbing the right wing militancy. 

None other than Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who jointly inaugurated the annual Ministerial conference along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Heart of Asia at Amritsar, directly hit out at Pakistan for “launching an undeclared war” against his country and demanded an Asian or international regime to verify Pak-sponsor terror operations.

"We need aid to fight terrorism", said Ghani adding, 

"We need to identify cross-border terrorism and a fund to combat terrorism. 

Pakistan has pledged 500 million dollars for Afghanistan's development. This amount, Mr. Aziz, can be spent to contain extremism," Ghani said

directly addressing Pakistan's foreign policy chief advisor Sartaj Aziz, who also attended the conference.

According to some informed information from across the border, recently, Mr Sharif has also given indications that those personally close to him or those who have worked in his office (PMO) may be assigned India-related works. One serving official in Pakistan army has already gone on record to suggest that the new boss of Pakistan army does not have “visceral hatred” of India -- as probably used to the case in the past.
However, Indian strategic observers remain skeptical. They say Pakistan Prime Minister's gestures are to be taken "with a pinch of salt" as continued terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani involvement in the valley unrest continue to create hurdles and raise questions about the "sincerity" of the Pakistani claims for peace with India. 
It took Pakistan about 70 years to get here, at least making the right gestures! But  the factors that were responsible for delay in this realisation have not disappeared, caution those in the know of things.

(Ends)

It's not anti-climax: But Shurhozelie's election as new Chief Minister-designate augurs interesting days in Naga politics

Neiphiu Rio had made a significant leap towards power in the state, but finally had to bow down to the political machinations of 81-year-old Shurhozelie, a seasoned politician also known for anti-Congress stance.

The final endorsement from the central BJP leadership allowing Nagaland People's Front (NPF) chief Shurhozelie Liezitsu to take over as new Nagaland Chief Minister replacing an embattled T R Zeliang has many facets. 

One simple interpretation is the BJP wants to hit many birds with its 'Nagaland move' endorsing Shurhozelie. 

The decision that is seen as a setback to state's lone Lok Sabha MP Neiphiu Rio, also a former Chief Minister who led NPF to victory in three consecutive polls 2003, 2008 and 2013, is also linked to BJP's ambitious electoral game plans in Manipur.

The NPF has fielded 15 candidates in Naga tribal dominated hilly region in Manipur, that goes to the polls on March 4 and March 8. In 2012 assembly elections in Manipur, NPF had emerged as a force to reckon with and has won four seats out of 12 it contested.
 

The on-going socio-political turmoil in Nagaland over demand for Chief Minister T R Zeliang's resignation and violent protests to women quota in urban local bodies had definitely harmed NPF's election campaign in Manipur. Mr Shurhozelie himself had said the "confusion" in Nagaland had affected party's election campaign.
BJP is not ready to part away with the possible victory of NPF in 6-8 seats in Manipur hills.
Moreover, the BJP leadership in Delhi after initially agreeing for a tough political player like Neiphiu Rio to replace T R Zeliang in the last moment again decided to back Shurhozelie as that would save any legislative and organisational split in the NPF.
"A split in NPF at this juncture would have spoiled NPF's electoral prospects in Manipur immensely. All issues were considered in details and now the NPF leaders and Nagaland ministers after swearing in on February 22 can focus on elections in Manipur," said a BJP source from Nagaland.
The BJP for that matter has a tough election battle to fight in Manipur as the local state unit of BJP is focused on "pro-Meitei politics" in the valleys chiefly against Congress led by a tough campaigner and incumbent Chief Minister O. Ibobi Singh.

"BJP's politics in Manipur is pro-Meitei who are Hindus," the source said but NPF, which paradoxically remains a decade old ally of the BJP in neighbouring Nagaland, is pro-Nagas and also pro-Christians.
"Few extra seats in 60-member assembly can always give BJP a mileage after the elections," the source said.

In Manipur, however, the division of Naga areas by the Ibobi Singh ministry in December 2016 has threatened to divide the tribal Nagas, Kukis and other smaller hilly tribes.
This division – between Nagas and Kukis – could play spoilsport to Prime Minister Modi's ambitions to capture another northeastern Indian state for BJP - after Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
Interestingly Manipur, which has substantial Naga (tribe) population- who are essentially practicing Christians- in the run up to the polls are largely perceived to be soft towards 'pro-Hindu BJP'.

''The Nagas could be inclined to support BJP or its ally Naga People's Front, primarily because the Modi government at the Centre has entered into an agreement with Naga rebel group NSCN (IM)," the source said.
According to NPF sources, a factor that probably also tilted the balance in favour of Shurhozelie is, while he is the party chief, Mr Rio was "suspended" last year for anti-party activities.
For his part, Mr Rio has, however, denied the charge.
 

Another source suggest the outgoing Chief Minister T R Zeliang played the ultimate spoilsport to Rio's chance of getting back to the post, as he solidly pledged his support to veteran Shurhozelie.
Moreover, a section of Prime Minister's trusted aides working in the northeast feel Neiphiu Rio as a tough mettle with an independent mind would be difficult to handle, when it comes to dealing with NSCN(IM)'s "greater Nagaland" demand.

When Rio was at the helm of affairs in Nagaland, the NPF had started making foray into other states like Arunachal Pradesh and even Jharkhand.
Such a high ambitious game plan may not suit the Central government and also the BJP, which have assured people in other states like Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh that - contrary to Naga insurgent group's demands- no bifurcation of their states would be allowed

ends

Naga MP Neiphiu Rio set to go back as Chief Minister: But a 'Rising Star' could not strike good rapport in Lutyens'

Having served Nagaland as its chief minister for more than a decade, soft-spoken Neiphiu Rio had shifted base to Lutyens' city. But he hardly could make a difference or a mark in Delhi politics and is now set to return home! 

Politics is also an art that cannot be predicted mostly. The adage, the beginning does not know our end seems to work in perfect harmony with politics.

My first memories of Neiphiu Rio were his stint as Minister for Youth Affairs under illustrious Congress politician, S C Jamir. The students of Science College in Kohima were at strike. This was early nineties, we had joined hundreds raising slogans against the then Education Minister I K Sema, a known bete-noire of Nagaland chief minister Jamir. 

When I accompanied student leaders of All Nagaland College Students’ Union and Naga Students’ Federation for talks with the chief minister, Rio was already summoned. By then Rio had given his inputs to Jamir and the chief minister was in his best of persuasive skills and slowly the agitation fizzled out. While we were coming out, some of us overheard Jamir telling softly, “Neiphiu you did a good job”.

Rio rose in Jamir’s estimation slowly and by 1998 was made the cabinet No. 2 and given the key portfolio of Home. Some of us aware of Jamir’s style of functioning, then a ruthless task master, almost wrote political obituary for Rio suggesting in the past too Jamir has ‘ended’ careers of many Naga politicians by making them number 2 in his cabinet: I K Sema, K L Chishi, T A Ngullie and Shikiho Sema.

But in Rio, Jamir met his nemesis. By the time Jamir’s second term as chief minister unhindered 10^th year in rule and a record in Nagaland came to an end in 2003, Neiphiu Rio and K Therie had ‘deserted’ Jamir camp. They floated a regional outfit NPF with other regionalists like Shurhozelie and in 2003 assembly elections humbled Jamir-led Congress.

Neiphiu Rio became chief minister. That was beginning of a new leaf in the career graph of Rio himself and also Naga politics. Rio has not looked back since then. And the ‘greater Nagaland’ debate had persisted with Rio’s crusade for it.

But in 2014, when Rio decided to plunge into central politics ‘giving up chief ministership’, certainly, many raised their eyebrows. My animal instinct reading was Rio could be trying to avoid the saturation point that comes rather easily among Naga voters. Perhaps he needs to ‘rehabilitate’ himself effectively before he is voted out or shown the doors as veteran Jamir was humbled. Politically, the ‘regional’ hat should have helped Rio especially at a juncture when the voters in India have voted out Congress and reposed faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi. 

It started well. For Rio, junior to the Late veteran parliamentarian P A Sangma by years, it was truly an honour when the NDA in its first meeting at the Central Hall of parliament provided him an opportunity to felicitate Narendra Modi on his election as NDA group leader. A man of few words and very soft spoken, Rio made his intent clear when he said, he is ready for a ‘bigger’ role in national polity to serve the northeast region and the country.

Said to be enjoying good rapport especially with the then BJP president Rajnath Singh, it is said Rio almost made it into the Modi cabinet on May 26, 2014. Apparently a former Chief Minister - Rio was offered Minister of State, Rio had declined the offer. But later Rio denied any such offer from Prime Minister Modi. Other version is Ajit Doval did not favour a man with independent mind in the cabinet. Doval wanted to control entire Naga peace talks -- often with his Mizoram prism -- something not workable in Nagaland. But these are only heresays and no way to confirm or deny these conjectures.

In the meanwhile, another interpretation was Rio was being egged to the ‘national politics’ also by National Socialist Council of Nagaland Isak-Muivah (NSCM-IM faction) to pursue strongly with the central government to make forward movement on the Naga Peace Talks. The negotiations with Naga rebels had started in 1997 during I K Gujral time but the negotiations are almost stuck there where it used to during Vajpayee regime. “The progress made under Manmohan Singh government on Naga peace talks was frustrating. They simply did not show the will. Worse , Dr Singh never bothered to visit Nagaland in last 10 years although he is an MP from Assam,” Rio had told me in an interview.

Rio and Rajnath: Good rapport

Some BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh despite their limited knowledge on northeast – seemed to concur that presence of a Naga leader in the union cabinet would also help push the talks forward. But that was not to be. 

This section of BJP leaders also hint that the ‘idea’ to Rio to move to Delhi was given by the BJP, which wants to work hard on the Look East Policy and penetrate beyond Myanmar region. There are significant numbers of Nagas in Myanmar. Modi wants to play his well known ‘out-of-box’ game ball. In fact, Modi reportedly told a meeting of closed door experts from northeast that he could bring in major reforms in the functioning of the Ministry of External Affairs itself and encourage ‘greater engagement’ with South Asian neighbours and other smaller countries.

Even otherwise, emergence of Modi regime in Delhi and preceded by change of governments in Pakistan and Nepal, democracy taking strong roots in Myanmar and Sheikh Hasina returning to power in Bangladesh, in diplomatic parlance we already see ‘winds of change’ blowing across Asia. Today, there is a growing realization that South East Asia actually begins with North East India and rightly so. Some babudom in PMO or people around him might have wasted few years. 

File snap: Protagonists PM, Guv, TR Zeliang, Rio

The curious case of Meghalaya Governor and 'women': Thy Shall n’t err Your Excellency!

Guest Column

(from Swati Deb)

What comes to the fore due to Shillong Raj Bhawan-vis-a-vis molestation charge is many of the Sanghparivar elements are unable to handle fame, glory and power. With regard J P Rajkhowa, then Arunachal Praesh Governor, the debate was constitutional - mainly about the powers and responsibilities of the gubernatorial post, but with Shanmuganathan episode the issue is around morality. And that's sad!

The Guest Blogger

In 2015 just a few days before his appointment as Governor of Meghalaya, V. Shanmuganathan, then a secretary in BJP parliamentary wing, said softly that he would like to read ‘The Statesman’ and other newspapers from eastern India more seriously as soon he would be traveling to the east. Little did anyone realize that within two years, the press will be up his throat. Shanmuganathan is the second Governor from northeastern region under the Modi government to hit headlines - all for wrong reasons.

In fact, the 67-year-old politician, also a bachelor and a former RSS 'pracharak' joins the illustrious (sic) league of past Governors in northeastern states who had their share of controversy. In the past Romesh Bhandari had made news in Tripura while the likes of Oudh Narayan Shrivastava and M M Thomas had their share of the blame in Manipur and Nagaland respectively. Lok Nath Mishra and his ADC ‘Captain Raina’ also made news in the Raj Bhawan of Kohima in 1992-93.  

Shillong Raj Bhavan

For the Modi government, in 2015-16, the then Arunachal Pradesh Governor J P Rajkhowa, who ultimately was replaced, had hit the headlines when he made way for a BJP-backed dispensation. The move earned the Modi government a strong rebuke. With regard Rajkhowa, the debate was constitutional - mainly about the powers and responsibilities of the gubernatorial post, but with Shanmuganathan episode the issue is more revolving around morality; and that’s pretty embarrassing for Modi, BJP and RSS – as all three from time to time do not mind playing moral police to Indian citizenry.

At one point of time, former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had sought to describe the Governor's post as that of a 'Raj Rishi' -- the moral guiding force behind the seat of power in states. That way, Shanmuganathan episode is certainly a strong anti-thesis to what Vajpayee had propounded. This is only to re-establish a fact that moderate Hindutva progressive views of Atal Behari Vajpayee probably do not have enough space in today’s world under the incumbent regime – fondly called NDA-2.

One would not like to make a moral judgement on the former Governor Shanmuganathan, who had to resign rather unceremoniously as the Raj Bhavan staff in Shillong had written to the Prime Minister on the questionable conduct of his.

Among a series of charges against Shanmuganathan, the Raj Bhavan staff complained that: "The Governor's immoral activities in relation to women is well known and can be verified from the Staff of Raj Bhawan....".

Acting quickly and avoiding controversies, the BJP top leadership ordered him to tender his resignation. 

The BJP sources, without doubt, admit the episode has left the party red-faced.

However, slowly a few twists in the tale are also unfolding. Perhaps to the surprise of many, the 'molestation' charge against the Governor had surfaced at a time when the Congress government in the state is on the receiving end of a similar if not worse sex scandal against Meghalaya Home Minister HDR Lyngdoh.

Not quite surprisingly, the Congress party is on denial mood. In Delhi, several Congress leaders say they do not know anything involving their Home Minister. In fact, one leader reportedly told a Shillong-based journalist to send him media clippings on charges against Home Minister Lyngdoh.

In Shillong, Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, who has to face a stiff  electoral battle in early 2018, said there was no question of dropping the Home Minister from the Cabinet. Lyngdoh, for his part, feigned ignorance on what’s happening at the said ‘guest house’ at Rilbong area of Shillong run by his family. BJP spokesperson and in charge Meghalaya Nalin Kohli said the Mukul Sangma-led government should be sacked for shielding the Home Minister in whose guest house the 14-year-old girl was repeatedly raped.

Members of the Thma-U Rangli Juki (TUR) and the Civil Society Women’s Organisation (CSWO) have filed FIR against owner of the guest house and also sought the demand for the resignation of Home Minister HDR Lyngdoh.

But police action on the case has been slow and tardy. Surprisingly, things do not end at these only. There’s another twist in the tale. There’s a typical RSS and Christians confrontation episode now revolving this case too. The allegation that Shanmuganathan molested a woman has angered the Tamil Nadu BJP and RSS leaders but their grievance apparently is not against the former governor. They blame “vested interests” – instead.

In Chennai, the Raj Bhawan-molestation episode has been thus easily linked to anti-Christian stance of RSS and thus against Mr Shanmuganathan himself. The outgoing Governor is also a RSS pracharak.

Thus, they see definitely a “Christian conspiracy to malign” the RSS and the BJP and also a former RSS organizer, who reportedly has been in the forefront of anti conversation activities. A section of BJP and RSS leaders now feel, Shanmuganathan is a victim of Christian conspiracy as Meghalaya also happens to be a Chrsitian-dominant state. But the former Governor has his detractors as well within Sanghparivar in Chennai. Even if, step by step, Shanmuganathan’s political career has not been not a very bright spot to envy, certainly it does have a characteristic of its own. 

Shanmuganathan’s rise in Brahmin-dominant RSS has been quite fast as he belonged to Saiva Pillamar community (a forward community) but not Brahmin. The RSS-BJP leadership has a double edged problem to handle – one legal case against one of their respected members and from a high position as Governor and the other of course in term of real polity.  

A non-Brahmin Tamil, Shanmuganathan has been a cause of discomfort for many in the RSS circle. In the past he had particular differences with a local Brahmin leader L Ganesan and Shanmuganathan’s shift of base to Delhi in 1999 was only to avoid a Brahmin-non Brahmin conflict within Sangh in the Dravidian-ruled state.

In Tamil Nadu, the death of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha has created a vacuum and both BJP and RSS feel there can be an opportunity to expand base. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is particularly keen to strengthen BJP-Sangh grip in Tamil Nadu as that would be living testimony as endorsement of his government’s policies. Modi will score a victory within Sangh family as BJP’s last South Indian domination has been in Karnataka and due to corruption charge that saga ended in disaster and the party first split and then in May 2013 elections, BJP was ousted and Congress wrested power. 

The BJP wants to play a Karnataka-game of 2008 and wants to capture Tamil Nadu and thus Shanmugannthan’s episode has thus come at a wrong time.

 In any case, what comes to light of Shillong Raj Bhawan-vis-a-vis molestation charge is many of the Sanghparivar elements are unable to handle fame, glory and power. On this backdrop, the top BJP leadership has only counseled for effective coordination between the party and the Sangh. 

There is a need to come out of a rather abrasive relationship  shared between RSS and the Vajpayee-led government. The convergence is definitely better now. A successful three-day coordination meeting was held between RSS leaders and Union Ministers. 

But more than mere coordination, Prime Minister Narendra Modi must tell RSS leaders that there should be qualitative selection criteria before RSS leaders are deputed to the BJP. Shanmuganathan is not alone. Earlier, in Gujarat, Sanjay Joshi, also a RSS man, had suffered a similar set back when a CD surfaced showing Joshi in poor light.

ends