Op. Sindoor - Gains and Loses :::: Who shaped 'peace and war' fable of 2025
“Comment is free…but facts are sacred,” – legendary C P Scott, then Editor of London-based newspaper ‘The Guardian’ had said these words in 1921.
Nowhere would this statement would be more relevant than doing a post mortem on military warfare between two countries. The latest India-Pakistan conflict after Pahalgam tragedy also had the vibrant civilisational flavour as terrorists had come to kill ‘Hindus’ during their April 22 misadventure.
The Hindu-Muslim differences are age-old. It all resulted in partition of mother India in 1947; yet the tussle has remained. Yet another round of armed conflict – less than 100 hours – has ended on May 10th evening.
We call it ceasefire and it is essentially temporary in nature. The India-Pakistan rivalry and ‘enmity’ based on the two-nation theory or otherwise is actually a permanent feature.
Congress veteran P Chidambaram has said: “As long as Pakistan’s military bosses and the ISI rule the roost, the threat to India will not be over”.
There are three stages to the Pahalgam terror-led tragedy and Operation Sindoor.
- First, there was April 22nd black day.
- Secondly, India retaliated from May 6-7 night and thirdly, the ceasefire.
Now, why India agreed for the ceasefire ? Did it simply bow to the wishes of Donald Trump?
What are the gains and losses?
Other than those what can be described in military terms, as of now India has gained something psychological. Elimination of dreaded terrorists is one.
The Modi Govt's forces could 'precisely' strike at terrorist headquarters and destroy people and infrastructure both inside Pakistan and in the PoK region despite Islamabad's repeated nuclear threats.
The Indus Water Treaty suspension will continue unaffected. There is no obligation for New Delhi to share information with Pakistan and works for multiple old and new water projects on three rivers will start soon.
But the jingoists and those in the ‘revenge club’ would not be happy. Some people have already started saying that the Prime Minister has blundered and New Delhi only managed to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. There is another crucial angle. This is linked to the American President, his whimsical style of speaking out of tuen and also in deciding things.
His post on social media announcing the ceasefire might have left even Narendra Modi surprised. Or did he expect that but he did not gauge it well many of his supporters too would not like their leader to give in to the pressure tactics od Donald Trump.
Did Trump actually spoil the ceasefire fun for the BJP? But one thing is certain. If that kind of intervention was allowed; now, the American hands will be everywhere. Trump took the credit for the breakthrough and did not allow the two players Pakistan and India and the armies to announce ceasefire.
He did it himself. In retrospect, it appears – both India and Pakistan only followed up his diktat. That may sound too crude; but that is also the Trump signature.
On US President Trump showing eagerness to ‘mediate’ between India and Pakistan over the 'Kashmir issue', former DGP of Jammu and Kashmir S P Vaid puts it better and simple. "As far as the Kashmir issue is concerned, India's stated policy is that we do not welcome any third party intervention, this is as per Simla Agreement, this is a dispute between two countries and they will sit together to resolve this...".
"See the military action from our side (against Pakistan) was entirely in the conventional domain. This was also made very clear in the defence briefing yesterday (May 12),"
- MEA spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told reporters here on Tuesday (May 13th)
He stated: "There were some questions also which were asked. There were some reports, however, that Pakistan National Command Authority will meet on 10th May, which we saw. But this was later denied by them. Pakistan Foreign Minister has himself denied the nuclear angle on record.
He made it clear - spiritedly echoing what Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his May 12 evening radio broadcast, "As you know, India has a firm stance that it will not give in to nuclear blackmail, or allow cross-border terrorism to be conducted, invoking it. In conversations with various countries, we have also cautioned that their subscribing to such scenarios could hurt them in their own region".
India also rejected US President Donald Trump's claim that he helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in exchange for 'trade concessions'. The MEA spokesman said - that the "issue of trade did not come up" in any discussions between the two nations during the recent military escalation.
This will be a problem area for Narendra Modi in months to come if Donald Trump desires that resolving Kashmir issue is also the mandate given to him by his electorate. He had tried to intervene even during his first stint as the US President.
In the entire bargain since the tele-call made by Vice President J D Vance to PM Modi; now it is clear Vance himself also gets a pat on the back to be shared with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Moreover, President Trump may stake a claim for the award 'global peace maker'.
We know Trump's passion is to take personal credit and so the greatest disappointment would also come for the US President if Pak's violations can yet again make India to retaliate.
As it is – now everyone is saying that the Operation Sindoor is not yet over.
Even the Indian Air Force in a statement on May 11 (Sunday) said the tussle is ongoing.
But on the other side of the river -- Team Modi may note that Pakistan army did not get extra 'strength’ post-Operation Sindoor.
Gen Asim Munir may develop dig differences with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif more and more as his grip over things will be questioned. Or otherwise – we may have a coup sooner than later.
And nnother option is - Shehbaz Sharif will be just an obedient elder brother to the General.
In all these conditions; Modi’s challenges will increase manifold. He has to manage a strong-headed friend called Trump – who will be desperate to ‘intervene’ on Kashmir and secondly, the army rule in Islamabad directly or indirectly will only add fighting power of the terror elements.
Even as the Operation Sindoor has killed several key terrorist leaders – the chief of sponsors and the philosopher and guide – the Pakistan army is still around. And Modi will need diplomacy, political acumen and a strong defence system as well as a robust security system at home.
Ceasefire is for a civilian government in Islamabad. To an extent it could be for the Pakistan army too. But no ceasefire works for Pakistan-based terrorists.
Moreover, India’s internal dynamics are very vulnerable and a bomb blast here and there should not be very difficult. How much of his intelligence agencies both the IB and RAW can deliver in terms of thwarting threats to internal security remains to be seen.
Moreover, Indian democracy is not only robust; it is also vulnerable to caste and communal conflicts in any part of the country. Manipur in the far-flung north east is one such example.
Today, Manipur is perhaps one of the biggest headaches of the era of the Modi-Amit Shah combine.
Tharoor, Chidambaram hail Govt : But Congress says why Modi is ‘tolerating’ Trump
For Indian armed forces and the Modi Govt there came two pleasant surprises.
The words of Shashi Tharoor and P Chidambaram. More about the former Home Minister who seldom applauds the BJP-led regime. Justifying developments those ultimately led to the ceasefire and 'end' of the conflict as of now, Chidambaram wrote in his weekly column:
"Prime Minister Modi had intervened during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and told the President of Russia, Mr Putin, on September 16, 2022, “this is not an era of war”. These words had won Mr Modi warm applause throughout the world; in India, they earned him praise as a statesman and peacemaker".
The war is pitiless, he pointed out adding any long-term conflict between India and Pakistan would be disastrous for the world economy and stability.
Congress leader Shashi Tharoor said shortly after announcement of ceasefire on May 10th that - Pakistan has been taught a lesson. " Peace is essential...I am very glad. India never wanted a long-term war. India wanted war to teach terrorists a lesson, and that lesson has been taught...".
However, Congress spokesperson Supriya Shrinate says, "Pakistan is a rogue state and it cannot be trusted.” Pakistan always got itself “involved in anti-India activities” and supporting terrorists, she said.
But the Congress party now wants that a parliament session should be called, and the PM should tell the opposition and the parliament about the entire chain of events. She was specific saying the country needs to know how the ceasefire was announced by the American president Trump.
“The US Secretary of State says that both countries will meet in a neutral place. Does this mean that the Simla Agreement has been cancelled? The US president is saying that I will mediate in the Kashmir issue. But, Kashmir is an integral part of India .... The Prime Minister and the BJP must tell why the US is intervening in our internal matters."
Prime Minister's May 12th speech made certain things clear. Everyone understood the big message - Rahul Gandhi and his team of intellectuals and Rajya Sabha members like Jairam Ramesh were not interested !!
Moral of the lesson may be - the Prime Minister should stop trusting Donald Trump too much.
These Americans have a track record of destroying friends. Modi should bring his spirit of 2019 when he abrogated Article 370.
That was a man like decision. Trump's betrayal is a good wake up call.
Narendra Modi is a quick learner. He has to learn things now even faster.
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| My article in Matrubhumi - Kerala's prestigious publication |
Yes the Americans cannot be trusted neither considered genuine friend .
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