Moditva may have to strike a right balance between 'domestic fury' of the Hindus and the hard realities of strategic challenges and opportunities.
(The brutality of the Pahalgam assault in one of Inda's famous tourist spots and its national resonance has left Indian Govt and Prime Minister Narendra Modi needing to signal strength and even aggressiveness.
However, the maturity of a leadership in a strategic matter will be proved if there is no "uncontrolled escalation" between two nuclear-armed nations.)
"The historic decision taken by the Modi government on the Indus Water Treaty is completely justified and in the national interest. We will ensure that not even a drop of water from the Indus River goes to Pakistan,"
Union Jalshakti Minister C R Patil wrote in Hindi on X.
Emphasising the importance of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, the Union Jal Shakti Minister said this in a post on Friday after a meeting at Home Minister Amit Shah's residence, which was also attended by External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and top officials.
India can now build dams without consulting Pakistan
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 was announced by India on Wednesday as part of a series of steps taken after the dastardly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam in which 25 tourists and a local were killed.
India will ensure that no water from the Indus River is wasted or allowed to flow into Pakistan, the government said on Friday.
It announced plans on three fronts — short-term, mid-term, and long-term — to prevent the river’s water from reaching Pakistan.
The Jal Shakti Ministry then sent a letter on Thursday to Syed Ali Murtuza, Secretary in the Ministry of Water Resources of Pakistan, notifying the decision.
Top officials said a detailed plan for India's next steps was discussed in the meeting at Amit Shah's residence and it was decided that the implementation of the treaty's suspension will begin immediately.
"Several long-term plans are on the table but the priority is a plan that can serve as a blueprint for the immediate and mid-term future," an official said.
As part of the Indus Water Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank, India has full right over the three eastern rivers in the Indus system - Ravi, Beas and Sutlej - while Pakistan gets access to around 135 million acre feet (MAF) of water from the three Western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab - all of which flow downstream to the country from India.
Among the options that are on the table in the short term,
the Centre is looking at de-silting existing dams on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab and increasing reservoir capacity,
These will reduce the water flowing into Pakistan.
Pakistan has been objecting to two hydroelectric projects by India - Kishenganga on a tributary of the Jhelum and Ratle, which is under construction on a tributary of the Chenab. The suspension of the treaty will allow India to ignore Pakistan's objections.
In the longer term, building new dams and infrastructure on these rivers is also something that is being considered.
The officials said a legal response is also being drafted in case there is any pressure from the World Bank or any other international institutions. Diplomatic efforts will also continue to ensure other countries know why India took the step.
"The government's intent is also to ensure that people in India face no or very little inconvenience because of this. The Jal Shakti, Home and Ministry of External Affairs are working on this in a coordinated fashion," an official said.
Pakistan has already indicated that it is rattled by the suspension of the treaty.
"Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty... will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power," an official statement from Pakistan said on Thursday.
In a letter addressed to her Pakistani counterpart, India's Water Resources Secretary Debashree Mukherjee addressed the Pak as 'dear' ....
said that sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan targeting Jammu and Kashmir impedes India's rights under the Indus Waters Treaty.
"The obligation to honour a treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen instead is sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan targeting the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir," the letter read.
India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is expected to have serious repercussions for Pakistan's agricultural economy, disrupting crucial water data sharing and reducing flows during key crop seasons, according to experts.
The Indian Army's Cold Start doctrine, for instance, envisions swift offensive operations "short of full-scale war", exploiting the "space for conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold". Pakistan, for its part, relies on a posture of "full spectrum deterrence" – including tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr (Hatf-9) – to dissuade any Indian incursions.
WAR GAME MOVE SEQUENCE
1) Blue 1 (India) STRIKE –
The Indian Navy Western Fleet kick-starts kinetic retaliation. Under cover of darkness, an Indian Navy guided-missile destroyer in the Arabian Sea launches a volley of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles at a terrorist training compound on Pakistan's coast, near Karachi.
Blue 2 (India) ATTACK –
India unleashes cyber warfare and space-based jamming. Even as Pakistan is still reacting, Indian agencies execute a massive cyber offensive against Pakistani military command networks and critical infrastructure. Indian malware knocks out portions of Pakistan's power grid and disrupts railway signalling, causing blackouts in Rawalpindi and paralysing communications for several hours.
Analyst C Raja Mohan says:
“There are many imponderables Modi must deal with, including the significant capabilities of the Pakistan army. But given the horrific nature of the attack and the outrage that has convulsed the nation … the PM may have no option but to explore some major risks.”
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