The Election Commission has marked “logical discrepancies” for over-one-crore voters in the Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal. It is arguably stated that the BJP has pushed hard for SIR in the state, primarily to cleanse the voters list of "Bangladeshi infiltrators".
For obvious reasons; the Trinamool leaders are irked over this. According to the draft electoral roll released by the poll panel; over 58 lakh names have been deleted.
Of course, the Lotus party had used the 'infiltration' issue successfully in neighbouring Bihar where the NDA recorded a landslide victory. In his virtual address to BJP supporters at Ranaghat on Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi raked up the issue of infiltrators.
“The Trinamool says ‘Go Back Modi.’ They do not say go back to these infiltrators. These infiltrators want to capture Bengal and Trinamool protects them. That is why they opposed the SIR,” he said.
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In terms of geography; South Bengal has been a strong TMC bastion and in 2021 polls - it was this region that ensured Mamata Banerjee survive another term in office. The Congress and the communists lost ground in both North Bengal and also in the southern region.
The BJP penetration was exemplary in North Bengal. The saffron party has done well there in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and in 2021, out of 77 assembly seats, the BJP had won in total -- as many as 23 of them came from North Bengal.
But take a closer look at the draft roll and one finds - in 10 of these 23 seats, the BJP’s victory margin is lower than the voters deleted.
In South Bengal districts where the BJP performance in 2021 was fairly good --- were
--
Hooghly, East Midnapore, West Midnapore,
Bankura, Purulia, Nadia and North 24 Parganas.
In these areas too there have been substantial deletion already in the draft roll and more such deletions expected by the saffron party.
After SIR was launched earlier this month, a large number of Bangladeshis, who have allegedly "lived in India as illegal immigrants for years" had to leave India and cross over to Bangladesh.
Both the countries - since August 2024 - do not share good relations.
But it ought to be understood that politics in West Bengal vis-a-vis Muslim population is much complex.
Mere polarisation may not actually help the BJP.
The electoral demography in West Bengal is tilted in favour of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. This is unlike Uttar Pradesh; where Muslim population is spread in such a way that diverse poll strategies can split Muslim votes and ensure wins for the BJP.
But in West Bengal ... splitting Muslim votes is not simple or easy. This is BJP's biggest worry.
West Bengal’s demography explains that 150 of the state’s 294 Assembly seats have substantial or decisive Muslim populations.
In constituencies like Sujapur in Malda Dakshin,
Muslims form an astonishing 89.3% of voters.
In districts such as Murshidabad (66%), Malda (51%),
Uttar Dinajpur (49%), and South 24 Parganas (35%), voting patterns operate in blocs, not fragments.
















