Russia-Ukraine conflict: One year on, this war will not end soon

Feb 24,2022, it all started and the war is on.

Estimates say more than 7,000 civilians have died, hundreds of them children, and 
perhaps over 100,000 Ukrainian military also attained martyrdom. One year on and several experts say there is a fear that a negotiated settlement at this stage would simply provide an opportunity for Russian President Vladmir Putin to "restock and prepare for a renewed assault".

"Russia failed in its lightning strike and then lost land it had grabbed to Ukrainian counter offensives. Mr Putin has united Ukrainians, brought the US back to Europe, strengthened European unity, revivified and expanded Nato," says 'The Guardian' editorial.

The Russian leadership under Putin had presumed that Ukranians and their non-text book variety president would crumble under intense pressure. But Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb 26, 2022 morning posted a video of himself on Twitter.  

Russians had even claimed initially that he had fled the war-ravaged country.

But Ukraine’s president emerged from his office unshaven, looked red-eyed and declared: “Good morning to all Ukrainians! There are a lot of fakes out there…[but] I am here.”

Truly, his people have backed him. It goes without stating that the Ukranians have shown astonishing courage and resolve in the face of the brutal Russian actions. But the costs mount by the day Global finance leaders will tally the economic damage from Russia's war in Ukraine as they meet in Bengaluru on Friday on the conflict's first anniversary. 

There have been some economic recoveries in recent months. The International Monetary Fund has forecast global GDP growth for 2023 at 2.9%, up from a 2.7% forecast in October 2022. However, this is also well below the 3.4% achieved in 2022. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the improvement, saying the global economy "is in a better place today than many predicted just a few months ago".

Experts say the pain has been more intense in emerging economies. 

In Egypt, where nearly a third of the population lives in poverty, people suffered for months. It is also said that it could be prudent to draw some consolation; perhaps it could have been worse. 

In developed world, however, companies and countries have been resilient and has so far avoided the worst-case scenario of painful recession. There have been issued such as shortfall in supplies of grain, fertilizer and energy. There is inflation and of course the much talked about economic uncertainty.

Notably, Russia also was the top supplier of fertilizer. The Russia-Ukraine conflict 

has of course disrupted wheat, barley and cooking oil from Ukraine and Russia, major global suppliers for Africa, 

the Middle East and parts of Asia.

Reports also suggested that in Nigeria, a top importer of Russian wheat, average food prices skyrocketed 

37 per cent last year. Bread prices have doubled in some places amid wheat shortages.

Reports also claimed that at least 40 percent of bakeries in the Nigerian capital of Abuja 

shut down after the price of flour jumped about 200 percent.

Strategic Impact:

The world felt some vital strategic impacts after the conflict.

Needless to add that Ukraine has survived, "unconquered", is possibly the most remarkable outcome.

While in Ukraine's case it is stated that the significant losses of territory has been matched by psychological 

triumph, in Asia, India tried to draw an independent foreign policy.

When questioned by members of western media, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar exposed

Europe. He said the continent should come out of the mindset that "Europe's problems are world problems;

but world problems are not Europe's problems".

He also took exception being called 'fence sitter' as the External Affairs Minister said, "Just because I do not

agree to you does not mean, I am a fence sitter. I am actually sitting on my ground".

India is the only country among the Quad which has not condemned Russia.

But the geo-political standing is such that none can easily condemn India in media or in public.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, - “All countries have different levels of engagement with Russia,

other countries in our own region, and so I am respectful of that”.

The US has described India as an 'essential partner'.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price has said: "....we have invested in that relationship (with India) in terms 

of our defence and security. So historical relationships notwithstanding, we are a partner of choice for India now, as

are many of our partners and allies around the world".

This perhaps is New India.

On the other fronts, Russian President Putin 'weaponised' energy prices, attempted nuclear blackmail and sought a 

closer alliance with China much to the unhappiness of the western powers. Moreover, Europe’s over-dependence on 

Russian gas and oil was also exposed. 

There is no end in sight to the conflict.

On Friday, Feb 24, 2023, Ukraine President Zeleskiy showed his determination on the anniversary say of the

conflict.

“We have not broken down, we have overcome many ordeals and we will prevail. We will hold to account 

all those who brought this evil, this war to our land,” Zelenskiy said on social media.

Meanwhile, Russia launched attacks near Kupiansk, in the eastern Kharkiv region, and Luhansk and Donetsk oblast, 

all places where Russian forces have been concentrating their offensive, the reports added.

ends