Focus shifts to Feb 14 second phase UP elections :::: Muslims keep fingers crossed .....

Focus shifts to Feb 14 second phase UP elections

New Delhi/Moradabad: The stage is set for the second phase of voting for 55 assembly segments in some politically vulnerable districts and key segments, such as Moradabad, Saharanpur, Rampur, Bijnor, Amroha, and Shahjahanpur. The Lotus party won 38 seats out of 55 in 2017, while Samajwadi Party had picked up 15 and congress two.

Sitting legislator Ritesh Kumar Gupta is the BJP nominee from Moradabad Nagar, and the SP-RLD alliance challenger is Mohd Yusuf Ansari, Rizwan Qureshi is the Congress nominee, and BSP candidate is Irshad Hussain. Waqi Rashid, a lawyer by profession, is the AIMIM candidate, and he has two criminal cases against him. 

Moradabad has about 50.80 per cent Muslim population while Rampur has nearly 51 per cent (50.57%). From the statistical point of the vote, Amroha is also vital, as it has over 40 per cent of Muslim voters. 

"The BJP has a strong presence here," says a local businessman. "The Hindu-Muslim factor is not so important as people are trying to make out. This region witnessed a massive improvement in law and order under Yogi Adityanath. 

The women are safe; the BJP government will be easily rewarded here," he explains emphatically. 

RLD Leader: Renuka Chaudhry

There are other important factors in this region. Even others say Muslim votes will be divided in some constituencies, and the internal squabbling over tickets between SP and RLD alliance partners will also get reflected in the mandate.

Of course, several BJP workers say the split in votes among rival parties will ultimately contribute to big wins for the party in this crucial region. "The Feb 14 second phase polling will finally set the ball rolling for return of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of UP," said Amarnath Mishra, an enthusiastic BJP booth worker. Several women voters in the region say improved law and order is a major election issue in this region.

Elections are to be held on Feb 14 in Deoband, Saharanpur Nagar, Gangoh, Najibabad, Asmoli, Chandausi, Badaub, Datagunj, Shekhpur, Meerganj, Nawabganj, Bhojipara and Faridpur, among others. 

Provincial elections in Uttar Pradesh are seen as a precursor to the parliamentary polls in 2024

All eyes are on the crucial first phase of polling on Feb 10 in India’s most populous Uttar Pradesh state in the northern Hindi-speaking heartland of the country.

The second phase of polling will follow closely on Feb 14, sealing the political fortunes of many candidates and their parties.

Haji Liaqat, RLD supporter at Baghpat

The politically sensitive townships of Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar fall in the agrarian western belt whose denizens took an active part in the 13-month farmers’ agitation on the outskirts of Delhi last year. 

Muslims too are key stakeholders in some of the 58 segments of the state assembly.

The seven-phase election in Uttar Pradesh – where Hindu monk-turned-politician Yogi Adityanath is the chief minister – along with four other states this year, is viewed as a semi-final ahead of parliamentary polls in 2024.

Muslims are at a crossroads in more ways than one.

In the agrarian belt dominated by Hindu Jats, the minority and majority community votes are expected to combine to ensure the defeat of the pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

“The Jat-Muslim alliance will sound the death-knell for the BJP,” claimed farmer leader Naresh Tikait while speaking to UCA News in Sisoli village, known as a stronghold of Jats.

Jats were among farmers who opposed the BJP's farm reform policies. 

 “We will like to see the end of Yogi Adityanath’s rule. Muslims faced gross discrimination and injustices in the past five years,” said Ahmed Hameed, a candidate from the opposition Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Baghpat. But the commoners among Muslims are cautious.

In 2013, the region witnessed religious strife and major riots in neighboring Muzaffarnagar straining further the Hindu-Muslim relationship.

Who will win in Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat this time?

Muslims make up about 20 percent of the state’s population and have sizable numbers to impact the first and second phases of polling in western Uttar Pradesh.

But will the Muslims vote for one party or will their votes get divided among secular parties? 

Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, based in the southern state of Telangana, has emerged as a serious contender for Muslim votes in this election.

A large section among the Muslims may yet repose faith in the Samajwadi Party (SP), a socialist outfit led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. 

His party has sewn an alliance with the RLD.

“Other secular parties such as the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party [representing Dalits] are not even in the race,” said Kohinoor Ahmed Chaudhry, a retired electricity department official.

The SP hasn’t fielded candidates in Baghpat or Muzaffarnagar, known strongholds of the RLD.

In Baghpat, the RLD’s Ahmed Hameed is pitted against BJP’s sitting legislator Yogesh Dhama, a Jat, in a rare straight fight.

So also in Muzaffarnagar, where the BJP has re-nominated minister Kapil Dev Agarwal, while the SP-RLD alliance has fielded Saurabh Swarup. 

A group of Muslims: Chhaprauli

But will the SP’s groundswell of support among Muslims be transferred to its alliance partner?

The BJP too may lose a sizeable number of Jat votes, but it may gain from other Hindu communities like the Gujjars and Brahmins, feel local observers of the electoral trends.

They point to an anti-BJP mood due to the paucity of jobs for the youth of this impoverished state.

Still, the electorate hasn’t completely forgotten the law and order problems witnessed during Akhilesh Yadav’s rule.

A large part of the electorate, both Hindus and Muslims, thus remains undecided on whom to vote this time.

But many observers feel Owaisi’s pro-Muslim party may end up splitting the community’s votes, which might help the BJP in closely-fought contests.

“Owaisi is only going to help the BJP. People should be careful about him,” said RLD’s  Hameed.

The AIMIM had contested the 2017 assembly elections too but had failed to open its account. This time, Owaisi appears determined and has announced plans to field 100 candidates across the vast state.

Even an attack on his car last week at a tollbooth in Hapur district, while Owaisi was on his way to Delhi after campaigning in Meerut town, does not seem to have deterred him.

“We are a genuinely pro-Muslim party who can tackle Hindu fundamentalism. Samajwadi or other so-called secular parties including the Congress have only exploited the Muslims as a 'vote bank',” Owaisi repeats at his election rallies.

Whatever be the outcome, politicians and election observers will be watching it with bated breath.

“This is going to be a semifinal for Prime Minister Modi,” says Sahendra Singh, the BJP candidate in the Chhaprauli seat.

They would also be keen on whether Yogi Adityanath breaks the 37-year-old record of Uttar Pradesh, where the last time a political party returned to power was in 1985.

Only three parties before Yogi's BJP have been able to complete their five years term leading the state government in the past six decades or so, among them his present rivals, Mayawati of BSP (2007-2012), Akhilesh Yadav of SP (2012-2017), and Congress party (1980-85)

Will Yogi and BJP be able to repeat their feat will be known by mid-March.

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