All roads lead to vote count stations in West Bengal. Can Mamata Banerjee win in Bhabanipur ?
The deletion of about 14,000 voters will be very crucial in terms of final outcome in this high profile constituency. It is estimated most of those deleted were Mamata voters. But does this fact gives a major edge to Suvendu Adhikari ?
Yes and No ... - both.
In two wards with substantial Muslims, Ward No 73 and 77; Mamata is expected to get huge leads. Of course, she betrayed nervousness on the polling day, April 29 -- because she fears there will be substantial Hindu consolidation in favour of BJP nominee in other words.
Hence, all eyes will remain - how various segments of voters - middleclass and also from communities like Hindu Bengalis, Gujaratis, Punjabis and Marwaris have voted here.
In other wards - if the BJP can get on average 70 cent votes; then things may turn nightmarish for the Trinamool supremo.
Otherwise, it is being presumed that the two wards - 73 and 77 will save the day for Mamata Banerjee, who created her-story' in a historical perspective in 2011 by rooting out the Marxists.
In another high-profile seat of Nandigram, which Suvendu won in 2021; the margin in favour of the BJP is expected to be around 12,000 to 14,000.
Voters in their mandate might have expressed clearly .... various facets of issues those weighed in their mind while exercising their franchise.
What was more important issue --
SIR ? Or Issues such as Corruption and Misgovernance ?
The general feedback has been there was 'anti-incumbency (that is anti-Mamata) mood. How much is the prized question.
Perhaps - the BJP's win will be more decided by the issue of Corruption and lack of women safety than the Hindu-Bangladeshi Muslims narrative.
But anti-incumbency does not mean ... all such votes have come to the BJP's kitty.
This may actually have caused split in Muslim votes.
This would also mean - the Congress and the Left unlike 2021 - will get four-five seats each. The ISF also can emerge as a key political party in West Bengal.
And if BJP does very well; knowingly and otherwise - people of Bengal might have made the ISF an important political party in the state. It can be 'new AIUDF' as was the case in Assam about a decade back.
Factors the BJP thinks have favoured it include : "... good turnout".
The political message - if the BJP's own calculation and Exit Polls outcome come true - it would mean "End of the road for yet another PM aspirant".
In the past, Indian voters have given clear messages to the likes of Lalu Prasad and Sharad Pawar.
These leaders including Mamata and several others whose ambitions were out of sync with political realities - including Mayawati among them - were brought rudely down to earth.
*** Split in Muslim votes
and Unity of Hindu votes would be important feature to look at and study further.
Swing seats ... to keep watch will be :
Cooch Behar region - Sitai and Sitalkuchi
Jalpaiguri - Rajganj
Baisnabnagar Assembly constituency in Malda district.
More such seats are -
Harirampur Assembly constituency in Dakshin Dinajpur district.
Raninagar Assembly constituency in Murshidabad district.
Baranagar Assembly constituency in North 24 Parganas
in Kolkata region, such key constituencies are - Rashbehari, Maniktala and Jorasanko.
Shyampur Assembly constituency in Howrah district
ends
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