Xi Jinping asked Donald Trump --
“Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?”
What is the Thucydides Trap?
A staple of foreign policy commentary, including by Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon,
the Thucydides Trap refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war.
US and China are playing the waiting game
A statue of the Greek historian, Thucydides. The Thucydides Trap refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, it can lead to war (snap - The Guardian)
“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,” Thucydides wrote in his book, the History of the Peloponnesian War.
Just as Athens once warred with Sparta, the implication is that China’s rise provokes anxiety and potential conflict with the US.
Observers have noted that Xi has used the term for years, but deploying the classical reference during Trump’s visit may be have been a foreshadowing of his position on Taiwan.
The Chinese leader later warned Trump that any missteps on Taiwan could push their two countries into “conflict”.
“The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of the self governing island that China claims as its own.
“If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation,” he added.
Responding on social media Trump said that Xi had “very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation”.
Of course, though, that was not a reference to the US under his watch, Trump said.“Two years ago, we were, in fact, a Nation in decline,” Trump posted on social media early on Friday. “Now, the United States is the hottest Nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before!”
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| Blogger in China : File snap |
US president hails ‘fantastic’ deals, but details remain scarce after pageantry and little progress at much-hyped summit with Xi
Donald Trump left China on Friday after a much-hyped summit of the world’s two major powers that was rich in pageantry and promises of stability, but offered little by way of tangible progress.
The US president had gone into the two-day talks with China’s Xi Jinping weakened by his prolonged war in Iran, and did little to change the perception that he and his nation are diminished on the global stage. Instead it was Xi who delivered the sharpest rhetoric of the meeting – over the future status of the self-governing island of Taiwan, with Trump notably failing to push back.
In his final remarks in Beijing on Friday, Trump did claim that the US and China struck “fantastic trade deals”, although details were scarce, and that he and Xi settled “a lot of different problems”.
As he left China, Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “China has a Ballroom, and so should the U.S.A.!” – a reference to his long-running campaign to build a $400m ballroom at the White House.
But he will return to Washington to find that the war in Iran still poses a major political headache.
There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz.
And there is a question mark over whether or not Beijing would be willing to accede to that pressure.
Speaking alongside Xi at the Zhongnanhai garden in Beijing on Friday, Trump said: “We did discuss Iran. We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open.”
He added: “We want them [Iran] to get it ended because it’s a crazy thing there, a little bit crazy. And it’s no good, it can’t happen.”
Chaotic US planning for a trip deferred due to the Iran war may have contributed to the lack of tangible outcomes. But the overall impression is of a wary stalemate. Just over a year ago, the US imposed 145% tariffs on China. Beijing hit back with its own tariffs and, critically, curbs on desperately needed rare earths exports, forcing Mr Trump to retreat. The US national security strategy announced a new focus on the western hemisphere. Military assets have been moved from Asia to the Middle East. US hawks have been muted, with China policy appearing to be directed primarily via the trade secretary, Scott Bessent.
The US hopes to establish alternative sources of rare earths. Deng Xiaoping urged China to “hide its light and bide its time” in foreign policy; now US officials joke of adopting his strategy.
"But others think that the US needs to move fast to tighten controls on exports of advanced technologies, and make serious progress in “de-risking” supply chains. They fear Mr Trump, who likes quick wins, is trading long-term national security for short‑term economic gain," runs an edit in 'The Gurdian', London.
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