Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing a rally in Purba Bardhaman district on April 11, delivered perhaps the sharpest statement on Bangladeshi infiltrators.
“The infiltrators should start packing their bags; it is time to leave. Those who have helped the infiltrators will not be spared.”
Over the years in West Bengal and also in Assam, the BJP leaders have been linking 'migration' to voter fraud and welfare leakage.
This is framed as a national security issue.
In the first phase of voting on April 23, elections will take place in 152 assembly constituencies falling under these 16 districts:
Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri
Kalimpong
Darjeeling, Uttar Dinapur, Dakshin Dinapur.
Malda
Murshidabad
Birbhum
Paschim Bardhaman
Bankura, Purulia, Paschim Medinipur, Purba Medinipur, Jhargram
More than 3.60 crore voters, including nearly 1.75 crore women, are eligible to exercise their franchise on Thursday. The Election Commission has deployed a record 2,450 companies of central forces, with more than 8,000 polling stations identified as highly sensitive.
On average for every 145 voters - there is one security personnel on duty.
For BJP; maintaining the crucial dominance in the north Bengal (8 districts) and some of the critical areas alongside Bangladesh will be critical to determine the political mood for the contest and voting even on April 29th.
The saffron party had won 59 of the 152 seats in 2021 against the TMC's tally of 93.
In 2024 Lok Sabha elections; in over assembly segments (won by TMC in 2021), the BJP could maintain lead. A wide range of voters - tribals, Gorkhalis (Nepalis) and Bengali Muslims and Hindus - those with traditional connections to Bangladesh will vote on Thursday, April 23rd.
Different landscapes cover - the minority-dominated pockets of Murshidabad (where huge numbers of deletion of voters took place),
... the tea gardens of Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar,
hills and critical valley areas of Darjeeling and Kalimpong covering busy towns like Jalpaiguri and Siliguri, the Rajbanshi belt of Cooch Behar and
the border districts of Malda and Uttar Dinajpur.
In many areas voters are talking about the need to experiment with 'double engine Govt'. Traditionally, Bengal has had opposing parties ruling the state and the centre. During Congress heydays, the Left dominated the state polity.
After 2011, when an ex-Congress leader Mamata Banerjee led TMC came to power in Kolkata; the Congress (was in Delhi). TMC quit UPA by 2012 and since 2014 - the relations between centre and the state government under Mamata have been hardly good or smooth.
It is being argued that out of 152 seats - if BJP manages around 90-100 then only it will be in the competition.
Otherwise, chances are that April 29 voting will be mere formality. The Lotus party 59 from these and hence will need 25-30 seats more. This is a Herculean task no doubt.
There are 13 seats from these 152 - when BJP lost by less than 5000 margin. In other words; these constituencies will offer BJP scopes to make a deeper penetration.
There area around 20 seats --- which BJP has identified as 'winnable'. In 2021 these seats were lost.
Analyst Ramakanto Shanyal says -- "Bangladesh achieved freedom in 1971 with the help of India. However, for politicians in West Bengal; Bangladesh is no longer just a neighbouring country. It's a symbol of Congress and Left unable to understand the significance of illegal migration from that country.
That means, the references to Bangladeshis and Bangladesh are engaged in domestic political battles".
The references mean -- the cross-border history and narratives of demographic threat.
It suits BJP. Prior to 2014, the Left and the Congress ensured that such narratives suit them provided the Bangladeshis also could vote in border areas and elsewhere.
Illegal immigration from Bangladesh is a threat to India's identity, resources, and security -- does apply to elections in Assam too. This issue and smart handling of ethnic-electorate polity helped BJP split Muslims votes in Assam. The same hope is rested in Bengal too; though it would be risky to trust the power of this issue in West Bengal elections especially in South Bengal and in and around Kolkata cities.
The political utility of 'linking migration' from Bangladesh to jobs, welfare, and security must be also examined.
Some say -- as a result the BJP can tap into local anxieties but keep aligning them with a broader nationalist and Hindutva-based ideology or with the national mission of the Modi Govt.
However, there is a catch. The contrast between diplomatic engagement and hard reality of electoral battle and the 'campaign rhetoric' is obvious.
In Dhaka, the new government under Tarique Rahman has signalled a pragmatic approach, emphasising mutual respect and reciprocity under a “Bangladesh First” policy.
The Modi govt too wants cordial ties. Lately Dinesh Trivedi has been appointed as new High Commissioner to Dhaka. Trivedi is not a diplomat but rather a politician from Gujarat and a rare linguist. He speaks Bangla.
PM Modi's message is clear the new envoy in Dhaka is my man and he will engage with the Tarique Rahman govt and Bangladeshi civil society and intellectuals in the language of their own.
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The BJP leaders like Suvendu Adhikari, who may become new chief minister after May 4th, has from time to time expressed deep concern over Bangladesh’s February 2026 election results, specifically regarding the performance of Jamaat-e-Islami in constituencies along the Indo-Bangladesh frontier.
The common and not so well educated voters in West Bengal understand the power of rhetoric. They also need to appreciate its limitation when it comes to diplomacy. Most people expect, once the Bengal polls are over; the rhetoric of equating all Bangladeshis may also subside.
The Jamaat-NCP opposition in Dhaka continues to play up anti-India sentiment.
Thus, the BNP leadership as BJP hardliners in India will have to sustain an 'accommodating' approach.
Some mistakes on these issues during Sheikh Hasina will have to be checked by both the governments in Dhaka as well as in New Delhi.
A confrontational approach even on the issue of border fencing and identifying infiltrators may undermine the larger goal of stabilising bilateral ties.
In the second phase of polling for 142 seats, the BJP will have to do miracle. In 2021, the Lotus party had won only 18. Thus for Mamata, the trump card is still with the South Bengal 'bhadra-lok' voters. Some issues will become complex issue in the second phase.
Points to be taken note of :
- In elections; perceived demographic threat is a bigger issue or influencer than logic or even real-time numbers.
- Migration is a complex issue no doubt. But it is influenced and shaped by socio-economic conditions, history and even geography.
- A simple narrative can work powerfully as it does in Assam : 'outsiders' will take away jobs and other benefits - those belong to 'insiders'. In Bengal; the US and They arguments often overlap.
ends
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