The Congress may feel delighted and even vindicated to an extent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Women Quota push has been stalled and defeated.
But it has its own set of challenges in days to come in Kerala - where chances of Congress return to power is seemingly bright. Three camps are at work. They are -- K C Venugopal (63), a a Lok Sabha member from Alappuzha and Rahul Gandhi's aide.
In the context of Kerala, the Congress leadership "accepted" Kerala leaders’ demand to bar MPs from assembly polls, though Assam MP Gaurav Gogoi was allowed. Gogoi is also state unit president and the party's chief ministerial face.
Two others are -- V D Satheesan (61), former opposition leader in the state assembly and working committee member Ramesh Chennithala (69). Both Satheesan and Chennithala have contested state elections.
During electioneering, the Congress had to keep its 'CM-face' plans close to its chest more out of compulsion. Otherwise internal feud would have come out in the open and by now things could have been far damaging.
The party leaders and even supporters are aware of Congress party's high command culture. On social media platforms, intense campaigning has alreadt started.
There is a fierce competition between Satheesan Camp and Venugopal Camp.
A section of his followers have projected him as a “a real leader, who led the party and devised its election strategies". This is chiefly attributed to Venugopal's closeness to Rahul Gandhi.
In 2019 when Rahul Gandhi had sensed defeat in Amethi; Venugopal's suggestion that the then Congress president should contest from Muslim-majority Wayanad proved a life-saver. Rahul was defeated by Smriti Irani in traditional Congress bastion Amethi; and had he not contested in Wayanad - he would have missed Lok Sabha stint between 2019 and 2024.
KPCC president Sunny Joseph says: “The AICC has a procedure. Many names may come (for the post of the CM). The decision is not taken based on the majority opinion of MLAs. At the same time, their opinions will be sought”. Hence, as of now it is clear -- the MLAs will technically decide on who would be Congress or the UDF chief minister.
The UDF lost power in 2016 and failed to strike resonance with voters in 2021.
The 'Rahul factor' is already in the scheme of things. Chennithala perhaps deserve the most has started sounding old syxophant:
“Kerala will give a massive verdict to the UDF, I will give its full credit to Rahul Gandhi. But if the party loses; a section of Congress as well as the Left supporters would blame local factors for the outcome.
In Ernakulam, which is the home district of Satheesan, the district Congress chief Muhammed Shiyas says:
“The next CM will be from Ernakulam district. We are looking forward to a CM from Ernakulam".
Satheesan's aggressive leadership of the UDF campaign, marked by his direct attacks on Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, could go in his favour.
Satheesan also says: "The party high command will decide who will be the chief minister. We need not debate it in Kerala."
The Chennithala camp remains hopeful that the senior leader will emerge as the winner in the ultimate analysis.
But there is yet another factor that could make Chennithala's work more challenging.
In case the stance of the legislators is taken seriously, Chennithala could be easily out of race. As it is most of the MLAs would be the loyalists of Satheesan or Venugopal.
Internal bickering is nothing new in Congress. In the past, the power struggle within the Congress was between leaders belonging to the Hindu and Christian communities (K Karunakaran vs A K Antony, Chennithala Vs Oommen Chandy). After Chandy’s death, as they say -- the Congress politics in Kerala got realigned.
Kozhikode MP M K Raghavan has claimed -- “Some leaders had approached me saying that I should contest seats where Congress has been getting defeated for decades. They said this would improve the strength of the Congress in the assembly and brighten the chances of the UDF coming to power".
But the state leaders suggested otherwise.
At present, the three contenders for the CM post belong to the upper-caste Nair community.
The last Congress regime from 2011 to 2016 was tumultuous, marked by a power struggle and intense lobbying for the CM post.
While Chandy assumed office as CM, the rival group led by Chennithala kept throwing up challenges for him. The influential Hindu Nair community outfit, the NSS, also demanded that Chennithala be given a key post.
Notably, after the Congress regime of 1982–87 led by K Karunakaran, Chandy was the only Congress CM in Kerala lucky enough to complete a full five years.
Meanwhile, Kozhikode MP M K Raghavan’s statement that it was the state leadership which opposed issuing party tickets to certain MPs for the assembly election came as a setback for Satheesan.
This was because it was he who had taken a strong stand.
In the meantime, K Sudhakaran, the Kannur MP and a former state unit president, has backed Venugopal saying the latter's continuing presence is imperative for the party.
ends
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