"The biggest guru-mantra is: never share your secrets with anybody. It will destroy you." -- Chanakya
It may not be without good reasons that Amit Shah is called BJP's Chanakya vis-a-vis drawing out electoral strategies.
Amit Shah's electoral success in national politics began with Uttar Pradesh in 2014 polls when as the BJP general secretary in-charge UP; Shah ensured NDA picks up 73 seats including 71 for the saffron outfit.
That figure made the 'Narendra Modi wave' of 2014 seemingly so much real. Since then, Shah has almost handled about 100 elections - if Rahul Gandhi has lost over 90 electoral battles; Shah has won as many.
This made all the difference to the Moditva phenomenon. Around 2014 December; BJP's low-profile in-charge for Bengal, Siddharth Singh (grand son of Lal Bahadur Shastri) gave a clarion call - "Bhag Mamata, Bhag". Now in 2026 --- it all seems near a striking distance !!
When Mamata had mocked - "Who is Amit Shah" -- everyone mocked at the Lotus party and the then BJP president.
Even as late as 2017 - the BJP was nowhere. It could win only 3 seats in the state assembly. In 2014 prior to that - the BJP increased vote share but seats were only two -- Darjeeling (S S Ahluwalia) and Asansol (Babul Supriyo).
In 2021, the BJP emerged as the principal opposition party in West Bengal even as Mamata Banerjee returned to power for a third time in a row. The biggest achievement for the Lotus party was that it could replace the Left and the Congress was further marginalised.
Both the parties/front which ruled the state for years since independence could not open account. The refrain earlier that the 'Bengali mindset' would not accept a Hindutva-based party was proved a misnomer. Hence, the 2026 battle is all about TMC and the BJP.
The SIR made it a tougher contest for Mamata Banerjee than she had presumed even a few months back.
On April 23, the first phase of polling saw huge turnout -- over 91 per cent statewide and around 96 percent in Cooch Behar in north Bengal. Next day, Amit Shah claimed - his party will win at least 110 seats out of 152 that went to polls. TMC leaders also screamed here and there - but they did not sound as much convincing.
Last time high turnout in Bengal polls was 84.6 per cent in 2011 - the eventful year Mamata had ousted the communists. Her-Story was created of course - but after 15 years the same 'her story' has been taken on head on.
But April 24th -- BJP's modern Chanakya - Amit Shah - gave a powerful message. The AAP of Arvind Kejriwal split in Rajya Sabha. Most unexpected protagonists like Sandeep Pathak quit the party leaving Kejriwal and many political players shell-shocked.
In times to come; analysts will debate and explore - what was bigger shocker - the split in AAP's Rajya Sabha wing or the desertion of Ajit Pawar-Praful Patel duo from the Sharad Pawar camp in Maharashtra.
The bigger message of AAP split is the timing. The political developments took place in the corridors of power in Delhi; the fallout would be less in Punjab but the message is more impactful for West Bengal.
If AAP could be split -- why not Trinamool Congress ?
A large number of 'floating voters' in Bengal for the crucial April 29 polls could be influenced. Reports of whispering is already there - if BJP makes up about 110-120 seats in total (in 294-member assembly); it would be the Lotus party who will form government.
The number of legislators required to claim forming new government in West Bengal is 148.
In addition, the TMC has issues of its own. There is a strong cold war between old guard and the new generation leaders led by Abhishek Banerjee. A section of TMC would be totally disagreeable to work under the leadership of Abhishek as the new chief minister.
Those who know Amit Shah - would always caution that his 15-day stay in Kolkata is not without good reasons. He has been meeting all kinds of protagonists - Netas and intellectuals. Kolkata also has good number of political go betweens and BJP-friendly business people and he has control over ED and other agencies.
Personally for Amit Shah; there are higher stakes in Bengal. By 2027 or 2029; if Modi has to name him as his successor - during the summer of 2026; India may get an official deputy prime minister.
If you have guessed it - well, the best option is to smile.
ends
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