After 10 years in office in 1957 -- Nehru lost his 'initial buyant spirit' ; In the case of Modi, it's big time DIFFERENT

 

In year 1957 first polls were held to elect the Kerala Legislative Assembly. The Communist Party of India (CPI) won the election with 60 seats. The election led to the formation of first democratically elected communist government in India. 

Note the timing, -- 1956-57 also marked the tenth year of Independence and it turned out to be a mega turning-point in the life and distinguished political career of Jawaharlal Nehru.  There have been riots in central India and Odisha, 'tension' between Sikhs and Hindus in Punjab, some squabbling over the Bengal-Bihar border area. Internationally, there were signs of 'decline of faith in Soviet sincerity'. 

The Communists not only came to power in Kerala, they also showed evidence of deep penetration in other parts of the country. 

Nehru was already in office for a decade and seven-eight years since 1950 when India had given unto itself the functioning formula of a Republic. But the 'new Nehru' by 1957 or so had started growing 'less confident'; and according to the book 'Nehru - A Political Biography' by Michael Brecher; Nehru's "buoyant spirit and vivid enthusiasm have been less in evidence since 1956". 

The effect of the neo challenges was profound. 

Now  if we compare if Nehru's 10 years in office and Narendra Modi's nine and half years; we have different trajectories to talk about.  

Compared to 2014, Modi in 2023-24 is a more confident leader and is also 'widely accepted' at the global stage -- notwithstanding some of  his perceived shortcomings.

Nine years and seven months since he is Prime Minister from May 2014 and prior to that as Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014, Modi emerges as a a “Teflon.” That’s a stereotype of course, but like most easy descriptors it holds more than a kernel of truth.

Scandals that would have devastated earlier leaders and governments seem to bounce off him. That way Modi is luckier; he 'cannot go wrong' remains a fact of life. But perhaps nothing like that worked in favour of Nehru especially after 1957 or so ! 

A Bloomberg article analyses this fact better.  It refers to "income tax officials starting an inquiry into the BBC’s India offices, weeks after the British broadcaster aired a two-part documentary re-examining Modi’s role in deadly 2002 riots in his home state of Gujarat". Then it says -- "Hours later Modi held phone calls with US President Joe Biden and France’s Emmanuel Macron touting record orders of 470 planes from Air India. 

"The juxtaposition illustrates Modi’s dual successes — leveraging India’s geopolitical position and economic promise to build good relations with the US and its allies, and his massive domestic appeal that has allowed him to crack down with arrests and official harassment of some local media and rights groups at home," says the article. Well, is this Moditva phenomenon, something even Nehru could have been jealous ?? 

The pressure on the BBC represents an escalation of Modi’s efforts to snuff out criticism. Abroad, he’s bucking sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine to be taking in more Russian crude oil than from any other source.

Then again Corruption charges against his predecessor Dr Manmohan Singh left Congress-led UPA cornered and looking for cover. They helped Modi sweep to power in 2014. 

But even the whiff of crony capitalism seems to make no dent to his rule. This is true with regard allegations from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for Rafale purchase in 2018-19 and also about friendship with fellow Gujarati business tycoon Gautam Adani.

Congress leaders absolutely clueless to challenge Moditva !

There is yet another yardstick. The conflict in Manipur has left the Modi government embarrassed. In  fact, for a while it appeared Manipur will be part of an effective political narrative to expose his 'so called Good Governance' following the guiding principle of a an inclusive regime. 

To some it seemed the word 'Manipur' will be a 'shorthand' for communicating the alleged callousness and communal slant of the Modi administration, that is the Double Engine government, yet he won convincing victories in three key Hindi and Hindu heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. 

Together these three states send 65 MPs to Lok Sabha and in the present House, the saffron party has 62 members.  

The biggest impact of 2023 assembly polls outcome is it has left the Opposition alliance in disarray and the Congress grassroots workers - whatever is left - is left demoralised. Nehru never enjoyed such situations I believe. 

In 1957-58,  according to biographer Michael Brecher. Nehru was "mellowed" down a great level and "inclined to be more patient". "An air of almost philosophic calm appears to have descended upon the mercurial Indian leader (Nehru)", he wrote.  But in the case of Modi -- no one is even thinking about these elements. 

In contrast yet again, a survey in August 2023 claimed Modi is likely to return as the Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, equalling the record held by India’s first PM Jawaharlal Nehru, in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held around April 2024. 

"In terms of alliances, the NDA is likely to see a drop of 35 seats and could finish with a tally of 318 seats, down 35 seats from its tally of 353 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Opposition alliance of 26 parties, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance may be limited to 175 seats while Others may win 50 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Regarding vote share, Others may pip the INDIA alliance, bagging 32.6 per cent and 24.9 per cent votes, respectively. The BJP alone is likely to garner 42.5 per cent votes while the NDA combined may win a vote share of 57.5 per cent if elections are held today," says a report in 'The Financial Express'. 

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