There is a distinct matrix in each of the three political equations that are being built up in the run up to the two-phased Gujarat assembly elections. It looks like the basics - A, B, C -- Aam Aadmi Party, BJP and the Congress. For the ruling BJP, the trump card is the time-tested Moditva phenomenon and Hindutva ideology, for the opposition Congress as of now the nature of battle strategy is 'confusion’.
The Congress stalwarts have been keeping themselves away from the hails and blames of Gujarat polls but on Nov 15 the grand old party named Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, his sister Priyanka Vadra and newly 'crowned' party president Mallikarjun Kharge in the list of star campaigners. Unlike 2017 when Rahul Gandhi took keen interest in Gujarat polls, he has so far kept away leaving all campaign work to state leaders only. On the other hand, the third entrant is the AAP.
Its move in Gujarat is guided by the party’s over ambition and, of course, the success it has tasted in Punjab. However, there is a fourth player too especially in Muslim stronghold pockets. The AIMIM led by vocal leader Asaduddin Owaisi from Hyderabad has decided to field candidates in key segments including in Jamalpur Khadia in Ahmedabad. Bhushan Bhatt of the BJP had won the seat in 2012 but Imran Khedawala of the Congress wrested the same in 2017.
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| Blogger in Western Indian state |
Imran has been fielded again while another enthusiastic Muslim leader Ilyas Qureshi has been denied the ticket. On the face value the Congress is defensive. The grand old party has preferred to play safe and thus re-nominated all the four sitting MLAs from Ahmedabad. In 2017, the Congress politics had a lot of backroom calculations and surprises. Two such 'surprises' Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor are now in the saffron camp and are contesting as well. AAP's poll strategies are seemingly puzzling.
The seat finally picked by the AAP for its 'CM face' Isudan Gadhvi is Jam Khambhaliya. This segment has last elected a non-Ahir was in 1967. The AAP nominee Gadhvi - a journalist-turned-neta - is a non-Ahir even as he is an OBC. There is also a caste game in AAP’s electoral strategy. However, the general refrain so far is that the caste factor may ultimately work against its ‘Chief Ministerial face’ at Jam Khambhaliya.
The BJP had won the seat in 2007 but lost in 2012 and since then it has been a complete Congress bastion. In terms of social matrix, Jam Khambhaliya is renowned across the world for its good quality Ghee and AAP’s strategy seems is directed at making deeper penetration in Congress strongholds.
"See, only Ahir candidates have won in the Khambhaliya seat since 1972. I fail to understand what the AAP is thinking. It is obvious the foremost challenge that Gadhvi will faces is gaining the Ahir community's acceptance," says BJP booth worker Shaileshbhai.
The AAP is also trying to be a serious contender in the Surat belt but here the BJP had done extremely well in 2017 notwithstanding the local anguish against the noteban and the GST. Gujarat’s richest city Surat's textile and diamond traders shut down markets protesting the imposition of the new tax norms. The usual complaint was that crores of profits would be 'wiped out'. But when the results came in of the 16 seats in Surat district, the Congress could win just one. A much delighted Late Arun Jaitley had then aptly remarked, "I have been proved right...".
The Lotus party retained all 12 seats in Surat city and analysts saw these as
people's utmost faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi and BJP's undiluted commitment to the Hindutva ideology. But the BJP strategists are walking cautiously. So, in this politically sensitive region, seats like Varachha are important this year.
The BJP has thus decided to renominate Kumar Kanani (sitting MLA) in this
Patidar-dominated seat. "Some calculations are necessary, and all issues have been handled well by the BJP," says a local trader.
The AAP's candidate will be Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) Convener Alpesh Kathiria. The BJP has also repeated MLA Purnesh Modi in Surat West.
In Katargam as well where Patidars and OBC voters are key players, the BJP is fielding its sitting MLA and minister of state Vinu Moradia. He will be pitted against AAP's state president Gopal Italia among others. In Ahmedabad out of 12 candidates named in the first list as many as 10 have been shown the door.
The poll strategists say an anti-incumbency mood is possible in the western state because the saffron party has been in power for long. The BJP first stated success in 1995 and as such has not looked behind. Nevertheless, this is a Hindutva laboratory state and all important 'Modi magic' is quite powerful even after so many years.
The RSS respect in the state especially in rural areas and also among the educated lot could be counted as even onetime Congress chief Shankersinh Vaghela too has the Sangh background.
In the context of caste equations, one local analyst Sri Ramcharan in Rajkot told ‘Organiser’ - "True the Patels will be rooting for the Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel this time. He is a Kadava Patidar. But other communities will also be voting for the BJP in many constituencies across the state. But the real gamechanger will be tribals as out of 27 seats the BJP has not managed good numbers in 2012 and 2017. But they will do well this time”.
At the state level, the BJP's dream target will be 140-150 but at least 130 seems 'easily possible/reachable in 2022' because it would mean a jump of at least 31 seats from its 2017 tally of 99. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel is the first-time legislator. He is also known for telling officials and supporters that to him the abbreviation 'CM' would better mean the 'Common man'. In fact, he is the fifth Patidar Chief Minister.
An enthusiastic voter Ramjee Patel in Ahmedabad says, "Chief Minister Patel's down to earth personality and practical administrative approaches have endeared him to the voters across communities and social strata. With him at the helm the BJP has possibly been able to brave the anti-incumbency factor to a large extent". Some of this confidence comes from the fact that the Congress is apparently not working as hard as it is expected to do; and the newcomer AAP is still 'very new'.
But it is also a fact that in Ahmedabad city - which has 16 seats - only Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel and sitting MLA Jagdish Vishwakarma have been renominated from Ghatlodia and Nikol constituencies. So, there are ten new faces in Ahmedabad alone. Across Gujarat too there are 62 new faces and even stalwarts like Vijay Rupani and Nitin Patel have been kept away from the electoral battle.
AAP needed a Mann-like face
Elections are also about popular leaders and generally acceptable state-level faces. The AAP came late into the game in Gujarat and it could not get any state-level known face. In Punjab, Bhagwant Mann has a huge fan following and moreover he was an MP too. The AAP campaign in Uttarakhand and Goa also apparently failed almost due to this reason. Its campaign pushing the 'Delhi Model of Governance' initially had many takers in Gujarat. But with BJP’s Modi around, such campaign also has limitations. Modi is the catalyst of Development himself and also a great champion of Hindutva cause.
Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel though has developed a signature style of his own, the public perception is Patel too was mentored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his initial days of political career. In Congress, after Ahmed Patel there is none. On this backdrop, a Muslim leader denied ticket for 2022 battle told this journalist, - "My career was half over with the sad demise of Ahmed Patel, now it is completely finished”.
The BJP presumes the battle will be much easier than it was in 2017. The biggest challenge will be to increase the tally. Anything between 130-150 will be a huge endorsement to Narendra Modi’s performance in the centre too and that will make BJP’s Mission 2024 ‘reachable’.
Political observers are busy analysing factors that might have forced Rahul Gandhi to practically stay away from Gujarat. However, it is also true that the AAP is seen only a seasonal bird and hence Congress is still the struggling outfit in the state.
The absence of Ahmed Patel is a big gap and moreover, the AAP has serious credibility questions especially in the light of various corruption allegations around money laundering and the controversial Delhi excise policy. Madhavsinh Solanki had managed to win 149 in the 182-member assembly in 1985 when politics was hugely dominated by the Congress. The BJP's best performance was in 2002 when it won 127 and that poll had elevated Narendra Modi as a formidable player in the national politics.
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