Gujarat: Signboard parties may not give run for money to big players

Ahmedabad

Gujarat generally has been dominated by bipolar politics between the BJP and the Congress.

Even after 2002 anti-Muslim mayhem, the Third Front parties such as the NCP, Samajwadi Party and JD(U) could not make much impact. Moreover, in several seats the NCP harmed the interest of Congress by splitting the anti-BJP votes. 

Namo and Vanjara : Yesteryears 

In the run up to the fast approaching assembly elections - Dec 1 and Dec 5 - we have the AAP of Arvind Kejriwal trying to play a significant role and all eyes are on whether it will harm Congress prospects.

But in addition to AAP, there are a few parties. In psephology terms -- one can say signboard parties.

Most often these signboard parties make hell of a difference in the ultimate analysis in many states but in Gujarat they could hardly make much impact.

Much controversial cop D J Vanzara, a former "encounter specialist", has floated the Praja Vijay Party (PVP) and says his new outfit is wedded to Hindutva ideology but would be fighting the BJP.

Vanzara was acquitted in the alleged fake encounter case of Sohrabuddin Shaikh and Tulsiram Prajapati and also has been discharged in the infamous Ishrat Jahan alleged fake encounter case.

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He was acquitted in 2017 in the fake encounter cases of Sohrabuddin Sheikh and Tulsi Prajapati (2005) 

after spending nearly eight years behind bars. 

"People of Gujarat do not easily accept a non-Hindutva party. Only a Hindutva party can provide an effective

alternative to the BJP," he says. 

Apart from Vanzara's party, PVP and three better known parties the BJP, Congress and the AAP;

other parties are in the 2022 fray are Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Communist Party of India (CPI), 

Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and 

All India Trinamool Congress (AITC).

Now it remains to be seen how much or how significant roles these parties will play in terms

of garnering support for themselves or spoiling games for others from much more credible parties

in the state.

For 89 seats that go to polls in the first phase on Dec 1, both the BJP and the Congress have fielded

candidates in all 89 seats. AAP has named nominees for 88 seats, BSP of Mayawati in 57 and AIMIM -

six.

 

From 2012 and 2017 records here are the statistics on how these smaller parties perform in Gujarat.

Notwithstanding much hype, in 2012, even former BJP stalwart Keshubhai Patel-led Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP)

could poll only 3.63 percent votes and could win only two seats The NCP vote share was 0.67 per cent and surprisingly,

it also won two seats. The Janata Dal (United) also could manage to win only one seat and 0.45 percent of votes.

The Independents had a share of 5.83 per cent of votes and only one of them could make it.

The Congress could win 61 seats and the vote share stood at 38.93 percent. 

The BJP could win 115 seats and its vote share was 48.85 percent.

In 2017, Independents managed 4.3 percent of votes and picked up 3 seats.

The Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), won 2 seats with a modest 0.7 vote share. 

Bahujan Samaj Party 0.7 percent  and no seat, NCP - 0.6 percent and one seat while

the little known All India Hindustan Congress Party managed 0.3 percent of votes while

Rashtriya Samajwadi Party (Secular) only 0.2 percent and Aam Aadmi Party only 0.1 percent of votes.

In Odisha there is a joke. Most new and large cars are seen in front of Congress Bhavan and ironically

many of those cars belong to Congress people who contested and lost elections and even lost deposits.

One may face defeat in polls, but one could grow rich. It's time to figure out what works.

ends