** Rajkot West has been a BJP bastion since 1967 from the Jan Sangh days.
In other words, the BJP has not lost the seat for the last 55 years. In February 2002, the seat was even represented by Narendra Modi. But this time the saffron party has reposed faith in first timer Dr Darshita Shah. Of course the decision of former Chief Minister Vijay Rupani to opt out of the electoral fray has helped the party.
Statistics often do their job precisely in detail during election season.
In the first list of 160 candidates for the Gujarat Assembly polls, the BJP has renominated 69 out of 111
sitting MLAs.
In Ahmedabad out of 12 candidates it has named as many as 10 have been shown the door.
The anti-incumbency mood against the BJP in a state considered the Hindutva laboratory as was 'expected'
is very much there -- crystal clear.
Though latent and prevailing more as an undercurrent, it is also quite strong in some pockets.
People are often in dilemma as they have to a do trade between broader Hindutva goals - Ram temple
in Ayodhya or Triple talaq for Muslim men -- and the practical problems like joblessness.
The BJP leadership is thus not leaving anything to chance.
In September 2021, the BJP central leadership -- to be precise Prime Minister Narendra Modi
and Home Minister Amit Shah - decided to replace Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and bring in
a Patidar, Bhupendra Patel.
This too was to balance the caste equations and also beat incumbency limitations.
The saffron party has been in power since 1995 barring a short spell of President's Rule and when rebel Shankersinh
Vaghela had led the government.
Thus, voters might have grown fatigued with the saffron party. But the Moditva factor is so strong and so is
radical Hindutva politics that everyone believes the BJP is still 'safe' in Gujarat.
Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel is the first time legislator. He is also known for telling officials and
supporters that to him the abbreviation 'CM' woud better mean the 'Common man'.
Ramjee Patel in Ahmedabad says, "Chief Minister Patel's down to earth personality and practical
administrative approaches have endeared him to the voters across communities and social strata and
the BJP has possibly been able to brave the anti-incumbency factor to a large extent".
Some of this confidence comes from the fact that the Congress is apparently not working
as hard as it is expected to do; and the newcomer AAP is actually still 'very new'.
But it is also a fact that in Ahmedabad city - which has 16 seats - only Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel and sitting MLA Jagdish Vishwakarma have been renominated from Ghatlodia and Nikol constituencies.
So, there are ten new faces in Ahmedabad alone. Across Gujarat too there are 62 new faces and even stalwarts like Vijay Rupani and Nitin Patel have been kept away from the electoral battle.
For records of course, Rupani and his deputy Nitin Patel (another senior
leader) have opted out of electoral fray this year. Are these leaders in the queue for forced
retirement is yet to be finalised though.
In major political decisions the Lotus party has denied tickets to Social Justice Minister Pradip
Parmar from Asarwa, Kishor Chauhan (Vejalpur), Rakesh Shah (Ellisbridge), Kaushik Patel (Naranpura), Balram Thavani (Naroda), Vallabh Kakadia (Thakkarbapanagar), Jagdish Patel (Amraiwadi) and Arvind Patel (Sabarmati).
Congressman Bhagabhai Barad, who joined the BJP on Wednesday, has been given a ticket from Talala.
Similarly, Rajendrasinh — son of veteran Congressman Mohansinh Rathva who joined the BJP - will
be the party nominee from the Chhota Udepur seat.
Cricket star Ravindra Jadeja’s wife Rivaba Jadeja will contest the polls from Jamnagar North from
where the party dropped Congress 'defector' Hakubha Jadeja.
The BJP has also dropped strongman Madhu Srivastav from Waghodia from Vadodara district.
Some of these changes have been made based on effective feedback from ground zero during
separate and independent surveys carried out since March this year.
But people have high expectations from the BJP leaders nevertheless.
"There is a need for taking steps both at the state and the central level for encouraging innovation, research
and development...overall joblessness is an issue," says Mahesh Sharma, an office goer in Ahmedabad.
Among the rivals, the AAP is confident of doing well in the Surat region. Here the BJP is rather
defensive and has avoided trying many new faces.
Five years back in 2017, the BJP faced some tough questions and hence stiff electoral
competition in South Gujarat.
The issue in debate was demonetisation and GST - which Rahul Gandhi even dubbed as
the 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. The competition was fierce in the Surat region though here people ultimately
had reposed faith in the saffron party and on the leadership of Narendra Modi.
The refrain among the trading community and others during the verdict of 2017 was that the Prime Minister
will ultimately take a decision which is "good for the country and the people '' and the blackmoney ought to be
curtailed.
But in the run up to the 2022 battle, challenges have mounted.
This region in South Gujarat particularly might actually see a real three-way tussle as the newcomer
AAP had won all the municipal corporation ward seats in Varachha.
"Some calculations are necessary, and all issues have been handled well by the BJP but AAP too
has done its homework well," says a local trader.
AAP's candidate will be PAAS Convener Alpesh Kathiria.
The Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) was launched in 2015 to lead the quota agitation.
Thus, seats like Varachha are important this year. The BJP has thus decided to renominate Kumar Kanani
(sitting MLA) in this Patidar-dominated seat.
Similarly, the BJP has repeated MLA Purnesh Modi in Surat West. In Katargam as well where Patidars and
OBC voters are key players, the BJP is fielding its sitting MLA and minister of state Vinu Moradia. He will be pitted against AAP's
state president Gopal Italia among others.
But in another Patidar stronghold Kamrej, the BJP has replaced V D Zalawadia
and instead shown confidence in Praful Panseria.
The tribal belt is also emerging as an important focused area of BJP politics this year. Here too AAP
will sweat it out well.
The 10-time MLA Mohansinh Rathava representing the prestigious Chhota Udepur constituency in
central Gujarat has quit the Congress and switched over to the saffron party.
This 'breakthrough' was a vital one as despite losing elections in Gujarat since the 1990s, the Congress
had a strong grip in these tribal areas.
But in 2022, the Congress has apparently not planned things well.
The AAP and also the Lotus party's poll strategists now believe that they all can muster a better hold in
Gujarat's tribal belt, which has as many as 27 assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribe.
Of these 27 seats, in 2012 -- which was Narendra Modi's last assembly polls, the BJP had won 10
leaving 16 for Congress while one seat had gone to the Janata Dal (U). In 2017, the Congress bagged
15 seats while the saffron party managed 8 and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chhotu Vasava could pick up two constituencies, and one seat had gone to an independent.
ends
Insets
** Applying caste equations and new face theory, from Viramgam, the BJP has decided to
field Hardik Patel, the face of Patidar agitation and the cause of BJP embarrassment.
Hardik is a 'son of the soil'. In 2017, Congress candidate Lakhabhai Bharwad
had humbled BJP's Tejashreeben Patel by a margin of over 6,5000 votes.
ends
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