Likes of French scholar and writer Christophe Jaffrelot do appreciate the fact that the BJP as a party and Narendra Modi as a leader have endeared themselves to the middle class.
Easily, the party has able to appeal to the urban class with eroding caste identities. The BJP also delivered over the years to win the confidence of rural and urban poor as well as sensitive communities like farmers.
I have emphasised in my book ‘Modi to Moditva – An Uncensored Truth’ (published in 2012) that a section of middle class perceived Modi as the super-CEO because Modi as the Chief Minister “functioned like a modern-day CEO laying emphasis on the outcome”.
This image persists as Gujarat is known as a state that ‘delivers’ notwithstanding same government rules and same bureaucracy.
Modi’s own understanding was to the point. “Due to development in Gujarat in the last 10 years (2002 to 2012), there has been substantial rise in this neo-middle class”.
But electorally since 1995, the middle class and also other socially crucial and vulnerable sections have been voting for the BJP.
Six years before Narendra Modi took over the leadership in Gujarat in 2001, the saffron party has never lost Gujarat election.
But it is also true that the expectations of the people in general and this neo-middle class and other segments have grown frighteningly. In the last election in 2017, Congress gave a big fight, the BJP won 99 seats but importantly it was around 49.05 percent votes and the Congress won 77, winning 42.97 per cent of the votes. The vote share difference was larger than the difference in number of seats.
In December 2012, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi as the Chief Minister, won 116 seats out of total 182 seats while the Congress had won 60 seats. The vote shares were 47.85 percent in favour of BJP while 38.93 percent had voted for the Congress. In 2007, the saffron party had won 117 and the Congress won 59.
In 2002, the BJP had won a record 127 seats. It was Modi’s first election as Chief Minister in office and it had come close on the heels of post-Godhra riots. The Congress tally was a modest 51 but vote share was 39.28 percent.
The single biggest take away of 2002 to 2017 polls is that in Gujarat, the 'Moditva magic' works for BJP.
The 'Moditva' as a brand survived and thrived in the year 2017 and it made ground for 2019 parliamentary elections as well despite certain claims to the contrary by the BJP’s political opponents.
The outcome of Gujarat elections in 2017 that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi make blistering campaigns and also BJP’s win in 2019 left a few crucial political lessons.
In the ultimate for the BJP, Modi remains its star face and it was purely his 'mass appeal' that mattered a lot and could successfully brave 22-year-old incumbency in Gujarat.
Notably, in 2017, there were different political challenge. The BJP as a ruling dispensation and Narendra Modi's government had come under severe criticism for the GST and its demonetization of high value currency notes in 2016. Moreover, in the context of Gujarat polls, groups of the Patel Hindu caste that make up the Patidar community had ‘complained’ in 2015 and the agitation even took a violent turn. But the BJP could return to power.
Like everything else in life, success for a political party and leaders also come with hard work, proper planning and playing the cards well. The BJP is highly organised party and at the same time it is driven by Karyakartas. There is little to dispute that Modi has been a lethal vote catcher. In 2012, Modi himself had said, “The last decade has come to be known as the decade of development for Gujarat”.
The same explanation would easily stand even for the period 2012 to 2022. This book shows how multi-pronged developmental strategies have done wonders.
As ear-on-ground party, the BJP always stuck to BJP’s core values. The party never allowed appeasement politics and since 2019 has implemented two major election promises of abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and starting the construction works for a grand Ram temple at Ayodhya. These have always ensured that the core voters stood by the party through thick and thin.
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