Congress still remains a force in Gujarat : Why Rahul stayed away should be explained ?

Many in Rajkot, Ahmedabad and Surat do not endorse AAP's move for demand for having Ganesh and Hindu Goddess Laxmi in Indian currency notes.

Ajay Banerjee working with a private bank says in Ahmedabad, "In the past, the caste used to be a major gamechanger for Congress stalwart Madhavsinh Solanki when he could lead his party winning as many as 149 seats in 1985. That was a different era and different Congress party certainly. But now the AAP is trying to make use of caste and also pushed a soft Hindutva line. This will not work in Gujarat". 

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who campaigned in Surat and Kutch areas, said that "it will be erroneous to overestimate the powers of AAP. It is not AAP or Arvind Kejriwal's leadership per se that is in play. A section of voters belonging to trading community are only playing up the AAP card".

Nevertheless it is a fact, the BJP still dreams to achieve its target. Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said

recently in Mumbai, "We will easily cross the 150 mark". The reference is obvious.

Himanta Biswa Sarma told some party supporters that reaching 135 seems possible for BJP. But he said

the Congress has a 'traditional' votes in Gujarat and therefore it is surprising why Rahul Gandhi stayed away from Gujarat poll campaign this year. 

In Gujarat politics it goes without saying that the Congress though has not tasted power since the 1990s

remains a strong party in certain pockets. Even after 2002 anti-Muslim mayhem and so called polarisation, the BJP and Narendra Modi's best tally was 127 --- a total of 22 seats behind Solanki's 1985 tally.

But what matters a lot in Gujarat politics is consolidation of Hindu votes. L K Advani's Rath Yatra had achieved that in 1990 - just five years after Solanki's record best - and the Congress strength was reduced to mere 33.

The Congress vote share also had nosedived to 31 percent and BJP had won 67 and Janata Dal - 70.

Working in alliance the BJP and Janata Dal had humbled the Congress. But this time around, nobody sees

any chance of stitching any poll adjustment formula by the Congress and the AAP.

Since the 1990s and all along Gujarat has played to the Hindutva gallery and the BJP successfully won

elections in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017.  

The AAP has played calculated risk trying to rework the latent caste differences. The Delhi-based party has tried to develop a new acronym OTP -- OBCs, Tribals and Patidars. Theoretically it looks good but the same

'Caste factor' may actually work against AAP's CM face -- Isudan Gadhvi.

Gadhvi has been fielded from Jam Khambhaliya where Ahirs have been winning the seat continuously since 1972. Gadhvi is a non-Ahir and this episode has left even best of pro-AAP enthusiastic supporters surprised and even anguished.

The AAP is planning big in Patidar-stronghold Surat region. But the BJP had done pretty well in Surat even in 2017 despite the GST and demonetisation anguish of Gujarati traders.  

Of course, according to an educationist in Rajkot, "The Saurashtra region remains complex ...all eyes are on these parties and how they will handle the battle. But an AAP-Congress consolidation would have been the best option which never happened".

The Congress and the AAP friendship is unlikely. Political observers know how the AAP has snatched Congress's prominence both in Delhi and Punjab.

Thus the fear is perhaps the Congress will be replaced by the AAP. Of course this will be a big embarrassment for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress. But this argument is based on over-estimating AAP and this is largely guided New Delhi's 'sickular' and English media. 

The grand old party has preferred to play safe and even went defensive to an extent. It has re-nominated all the four sitting MLAs from Ahmedabad. In 2017, Congress politics had a lot of backroom calculations and surprises.

But in 2022, two such 'surprises' Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor are now in the saffron camp. 

The BJP has fielded Hardik Patel in Viramgam while Alpesh Thakor, who joined BJP in 2019, has now been moved out from his Radhanpur constituency and has been instead fielded from Gandhinagar South. From Radhanpur, the BJP nominee for 2022 is Lovingji Thakor.

The Congress has suffered electoral reverses earlier in Gujarat when anti-BJP votes would split.

In 2002, the polls after riots that made Narendra Modi a 'big leader', there were at least 30 seats which the BJP could win only because the votes split between Janata Dal, NCP and the Congress.

In the ultimate analysis, most BJP leaders and middle-level poll managers are happy over the way things are going on in Gujarat.

AAP and Congress 'muddle' to help recreate 'Modi Magic'

In Delhi's socialite circle there is a pet phrase 'Mutual Admiration Club'. But in Gujarat in the run up to Dec 1 and Dec 5 polling, people are talking about MCC -- the Mutual Criticism Club.

This definition suits the AAP and the Congress party - which has held considerable opposition space in Narendra Modi's Gujarat for long.

The Congress says the AAP of Arvind Kejriwal is BJP's 'B-Team' and that the latter is contesting Gujarat polls only to help the saffron party.

On the other hand, the AAP says there are 'ILU-ILU (I love You)' deals between the BJP and the Congress. Of course, the age-old stories of two cats and a monkey settling the share of the cake applies in Gujarat polity as both the AAP and the Congress are eyeing typically 'anti-BJP votes'. So, the common refrain is each one of them - the AAP of Kejriwal and Rahul-Sonia Gandhi's Congress will cut into each other's vote share and ultimately help the party of their common enemy, Narendra Modi.

The AAP sources in Ahmedabad even refer to the so-called 'silence' of the ED probe into the 'National Herald' case wherein a big hungama was generated over questioning of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul.

Of course, they say, Manish Sisodia was rather under severe attack.

The truth lies in the womb of time. But the BJP sees this year's polls as an easier battle (unlike 2017), but the saffron party's poll managers are leaving nothing to chance.

There is an attempt to balance things at every level. In the first list therefore there were 14 women, 43 Patidars, 14 Brahmins and 14 SC and 24 from the Scheduled Tribes. On the other hand, the AAP is applying a mixed game sort of strategy and trying to make use of caste factors and also brought in a share of soft Hindutva.

AAP needed a Mann-like face

The Gujarat election is also about prominent faces. The BJP is faced with the problem after Modi shifted to Delhi. 

Incumbent Bhupendra Patel is the third face after Anandiben Patel and Vijay
Rupani to succeed Modi.

The AAP not only came late into the game; it could not get any state-level known face. In Punjab, Bhagwant Mann has a huge fan following and moreover he was an MP too. 

The AAP campaign has failed in Uttarakhand and Goa almost due to this reason. Its campaign pushing the 'Delhi Model of Governance' initially had many takers in Gujarat. But it has its limitations especially when the competitor is Narendra Modi -- a catalyst of Development himself.

Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel though has developed a signature style of his own, the public perception is Patel too was mentored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his initial days of political career.

In Congress, after Ahmed Patel there is none. On this backdrop, a Muslim leader denied ticket for 2022 battle told this journalist, - "My career was half over with the sad demise of Ahmed Patel, now it is completely finished.

I am retired and I am hurt". 

There is a fourth player too especially in Muslim stronghold pockets. The AIMIM led by it's vocal leader Asaduddin Owaisi has decided to field candidates in key segments including in Jamalpur Khadia in Ahmedabad.

The pro-BJP voters say Owaisi's entry too will help the saffron surge. The AIMIM chief was greeted with black flags and

chants of ‘Modi-Modi’ during a public meeting in Surat.

Here the Hyderabad-based party will cause considerable harm to the AAP.

The Congress has suffered electoral reverses earlier in Gujarat when anti-BJP votes would split.

In 2002, the polls after riots that made Narendra Modi a 'big leader', there were at least 30 seats which the

BJP could win only because the votes split between Janata Dal, NCP and the Congress.

In the ultimate analysis, most BJP leaders and middle-level poll managers are happy over the way things are going on in Gujarat.

"Unlike 2017, the battle looks easier this time. Millions follow and admire Congress party and Rahul Gandhi on social media but that is no guarantee for votes. Why Rahul stayed away leaving the opposition space to AAP will have to be looked into especially after results pour in on December 8th," says one Rajkot-based BJP supporter Kantilal Patel.

He, however, says the AAP is only a seasonal bird and Congress still remains a struggling outfit.

Kantilal Patel also understands the absence of Ahmed Patel and adds on the same breadth that the AAP has serious credibility questions especially in the light of various corruption allegations around money laundering and excise policy.

ends