Elections in India are no longer only about competing development models or rival economic visions. Identity politics — especially religious — is the defining axis.
In Kerala, irrespective of the outcome, Chief Minister P Vijayan may emerge as the man-of-the-match. Vijayan’s critics call him a “mundu udatha Modi”— Narendra Modi in a 'mundu', a white garment worn around the waist or Loongi (as in eastern India).
Electoral battles in India are also perpetual and noisy.
One issue at hand is that every few months, in the world’s largest democracy, lakhs may line up to vote somewhere. The political mobilization thus is quite challenging.
The peculiarity of Kerala politics is sometime self-explained or is left 'unexplained'. Otherwise how would you explain - pro-Hindutva BJP wooing Christians, Congress along side Muslim League trying to hold together a coalition of minorities both Christians and Muslims and the Marxists often desperate to win over Hindus.
It is argued that the communist regime in Kerala is feeling the pressure of BJP's growing acceptability and hence it cannot be seen antagonizing the Hindus.
On a number of occasions, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and even his party colleagues have tried hard to dub him as a Shiv Bhakt and even a Brahmin. In fact, it was not without good reasons in 2022; UP's monk-turned-Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath had said :
"It is our success that Mamata Banerjee is now forced to chant Hindu Mantras. This is the change we talk about. This is New India."
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| Sabarimala Temple ; Handling and Mishandling has been part of Kerala politics |
The 1945-born Pinarayi Vijayan, now 81, has kept Congress out of power for a decade. If he can ensure the UDF victory; the Marxists would save their red-bastion. In previous red-forts Bengal and Tripura; the CPI-M is now badly marginalised.
Vijayan's political acumen was evident in 2021, when the Leftists unexpectedly retained the state despite anti-incumbency. Normally, every five years governments used to change in Kerala. Kerala’s Congress-led opposition is anchored by Christians, especially Catholics, and Muslims,
The Indian Union Muslim League IUML) is a constant ally of the Congress party.
The BJP on the other hand has made inroads and did extremely well in civic polls. But overall, it still remains a weak player in state assembly polls.
The Lotus party also tries to woo Christians by multiple methodologies but most Christians probably still view BJP's outreach as sheer tokenism.
Central Kerala, stretching across districts such as Kottayam, Ernakulam and Thrissur, has always been a decisive battleground. Hence all eyes will be on the seats in this region.
Christians are increasingly evaluating parties based on governance and also how much 'bargain' can be worked out on behalf of the community. Seeking a third consecutive term, crafty CM Vijayan is only a year short of overtaking his CPI-M predecessor E K Nayanar as Kerala’s longest-reigning chief minister. But all these are easier said.
The national-level friendship between CPI-M and the Congress do not work in Kerala. Worse, the contest is most serious and toxic.
P Rajeev, Kerala law minister, has charged Rahul Gandhi with being a Sangh Parivar stooge in the southern Indian state. Incidentally, Rahul represented Kerala in Parliament between 2014 and 2024 and also won the seat in parliamentary elections two years back. But he has vacated the seat and the Wayanad segment is now represented by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
BJP’s strong organisational network & outreach dominate Assam polls, but concerns over ST status, identity, & promises remain
For Congress, stakes are high in Kerala as well as Assam. In both the states; the Congress was booted out of power in 2016.
The saffron party repeatedly highlighted its work on roads, highways, bridges, and fast-growing traffic-easing flyovers. Assam's infra development scene has undergone dramatic change under BJP.
But underneath the surface there lies series of grievances especially in terms of joblessness and migration of educated Assamese outside the state. At the fag end of electioneering, Congress leader Pawan Khera made serious charges against BJP chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's wife.
The answer to repeated questions on whether such issues will bring in miracle for Congress in the vote count lies in the womb of time.
Do or Die battle for Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi
ends
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