What all can happen to Bangladesh ?? ::: And of course .... the India and Pakistan angles ::: Hadi's killing and violence opened windows to dump Yunus

Essentially .... Osman Hadi's killing and subsequent violence have weakened the position of the interim Govt and strengthened the position of Bangladesh Army.

In the streets of Bangladesh; the anti-India narratives actually works as a smokescreen over the failures of Yunus and his team.

In August 2024, Sheikh Hasina fled and a team was brought under the leadership of Yunus, who was abroad during turmoil. Now one and half years later --  he has failed. 

This is a chance to dump him replace neo-autocracy that encuraged mobocracy in Bangladesh.

Genuine civil and political rights have been almost forgotten. 

**** 

On Dec 12, 2025, Sharif Osman Hadi, 32, was shot by masked assailants as he was leaving a mosque in Dhaka. 

He was airlifted to a hospital in Singapore but there he succumbed to his injuries precipitating a mega socio-political and law and order crisis in governance-starved Bangladesh. 

Hadi was a key figure in 2024 uprising that rocked Dhaka and ended the rule of the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who was understandably quite friendly to India.

The parliamentary elections have been announced in February 2026 and now doubts linger whether the interim regime can really hold the polls. 

Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority nation of 170 million people and now radicals have taken over the streets in more ways than one.

The country is now having a fresh round of India-bashing mostly directed at garnering voters following the polarisation. The safety and security of Hindus are in question and various international players including Turkey, Pakistan, China, the US and India are taking keen interest vis-a-vis the coming elections when he people will directly vote for 300 lawmakers for its parliament, with another 50 selected on a women’s list.

Lately, a few Turkish intelligence people also visited Bangladesh, it is claimed.

The last elections, held in January 2024, gave Sheikh Hasina a fourth straight term but the polls were decried by her detractors as a sham.

The Bangladesh Nationalist party leader former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia is battling a serious lung infection in intensive care in Dhaka, The BNP is expected to win the coming polls.

Her son and political heir Tarique Rahman is likely to return from exile in Britain after 17 years on December  25. 

The interim regime and newly floated National Citizens Party are also not quite comfortable that the BNP may come to power after the polls. The head of the interim regime Muhammad Yunus and his associates will have no job if such things really happen. 

Now the possibilities if elections are really held in February 2026 ---

Scenario 1 :::: Hung Parliament

-- There may be rampant violence

-- Bangladesh Army either steps in on own or may be asked by the interim Govt to calm the situation

-- Students, NCP and Jamaat take control in violence-hit control

** But interim Govt headed by Yunus may continue or Army stages coup   

*** Scenario 2 

** BNP sweeps and comes to power

** Interim leader Yunus and student leaders part ways. NCP splits .. with come strike a deal with Jamaat and the rest try to inch closer to the BNP 

*** 

Scenario 3 

** Students-NCP and Jamaat get majority

** BNP stays in Opposition but 'poll fixing' charges could get currency  

Essentially  -- the different angles New Delhi or even Islamabad will have to monitor are ---

*** BNP -- is a centrist force  

Indian forces : Ever Alert 

Jamaat - Radical and firm with communal and typically Pakistan-friendly and anti-India approaches

NCP  -- will be a confused lot;  but also opportunists and power hungry. 

Yunus -- symbolises deeper roles of the Deep State and typical anti-India 

(Yunus will continue to get support of overseas Bangladeshis by design and default) 

** Wild card will be with the Bangladesh Army

** Also a possible player will be a 'far right' force .... pro-Taliban 

 Hizbut Tahrir  group is a fundamentalist outfit and was outlawed by Hasina govt in 2009.

For the majority of the young people, main issues are

Economic hardship and high youth unemployment 

** But what is being debated mostly at least by NCP and protagonists close to Yunus is 'India's role'. 

 For India; ny premature or direct military intervention in Bangladesh would serve external powers far more than it would serve Indian national interests. 

The objective of these actors is simple to entangle India in a prolonged, resource draining, politically destabilising conflict on its eastern flank. 

ends