SIR in Bengal :::: "Logical Discrepancies" ... leading to obvious -- "Trinamool leaders are irked" :::: BJP says more deletion on cards

The Election Commission has marked “logical discrepancies” for over-one-crore voters in the Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal. It is arguably stated that the BJP has pushed hard for SIR in the state, primarily to cleanse the voters list of "Bangladeshi infiltrators".

For obvious reasons; the Trinamool leaders are irked over this. According to the draft electoral roll released by the poll panel; over 58 lakh names have been deleted.  

Of course, the Lotus party had used the 'infiltration' issue successfully in neighbouring Bihar where the NDA recorded a landslide victory. In his virtual address to BJP supporters at Ranaghat on Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi raked up the issue of infiltrators.

“The Trinamool says ‘Go Back Modi.’ They do not say go back to these infiltrators. These infiltrators want to capture Bengal and Trinamool protects them. That is why they opposed the SIR,” he said.

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In terms of geography; South Bengal has been a strong TMC bastion and in 2021 polls - it was this region that ensured Mamata Banerjee survive another term in office. The Congress and the communists lost ground in both North Bengal and also in the southern region.

The BJP penetration was exemplary in North Bengal. The saffron party has done well there in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and in 2021, out of 77 assembly seats, the BJP had won in total -- as many as 23 of them came from North Bengal.

But take a closer look at the draft roll and one finds - in 10 of these 23 seats, the BJP’s victory margin is lower than the voters deleted.

In the industrial belt of Burdwan in South Bengal, the deletions in Asansol South and Kulti assembly seats -- both held by the BJP, are over 13,000. 

The victory margin in favour of BJP candidates in Kutli was 679 

and in Asansol South the margin was 4,487 votes. 

It is estimated more names would be deleted. The draft roll exercise has been described as just a "beginning" by Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari. 

The interpretation by analysts is --

Names deleted include are dead, missing and shifted voters. 

The BJP says -- these are the voters that the Trinamool Congress used in the local body polls and in the other elections. 

On the face value; the Trinamool Congress is already at a disadvantage. 

Political analyst Subhamay Maitra sums up the paradox quite well: 

“The BJP is not in power in Bengal. They are not in a position to dictate the process of voting. The ruling party is always at an advantage in using dead and missing voters.

 In the seats that BJP won they could because Trinamool’s manipulation of the electoral rolls did not work."  

The Bihar mandate was crystal clear in favour of the BJP. 

Hence, the talk is that Modi's party may yet again use the SIR exercise and try to influence poll outcomes in various states across India.

"The carpet underneath the feet of various opposition parties has been shaken. 

So far, they have been getting Muslim votes even as there are many foreign Bangladeshi Muslims. The SIR has exposed them as now only genuine Indian voters will be able to vote," BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari has said. 

Of course Opposition parties including Congress and Trinamool Congress have alleged that many of those removed names in Bihar and other states were Muslims or belonged to social groups and communities that do not form the 

vote bank of the Hindutva forces led by the BJP.

Notably, in Bihar, a state with 130 million people, more than 6.5 million people were removed from the voter list.

But there were no formal complaints even as there have been severe allegations by political leaders

repeatedly. 

In fact, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has discovered a phrase "vote-chori(theft)" and used it to make a blistering attack on the Prime Minister, the Election Commission and of course the BJP.

Congress party organised a rally in Delhi on the same issue recently. However,

National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, which won the polls in the violence-hit province, said it is not party to such campaigns led by Rahul Gandhi. 

In South Bengal districts where the BJP performance in 2021 was fairly good --- were

--

Hooghly, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, 

Bankura, Purulia, Nadia and North 24 Parganas. 

In these areas too there have been substantial deletion already in the draft roll and more such deletions expected by the saffron party. 

After SIR was launched earlier this month, a large number of Bangladeshis, who have allegedly "lived in India as illegal immigrants for years" had to leave India and cross over to Bangladesh.

Both the countries - since August 2024 - do not share good relations. 

But it ought to be understood that politics in West Bengal vis-a-vis Muslim population is much complex. 

Mere polarisation may not actually help the BJP.

The electoral demography in West Bengal is tilted in favour of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. This is unlike Uttar Pradesh; where Muslim population is spread in such a way that diverse poll strategies can split Muslim votes and ensure wins for the BJP.

But in West Bengal ... splitting Muslim votes is not simple or easy. This is BJP's biggest worry.

West Bengal’s demography explains that 150 of the state’s 294 Assembly seats have substantial or decisive Muslim populations. 

In constituencies like Sujapur in Malda Dakshin, 

Muslims form an astonishing 89.3% of voters. 

In districts such as Murshidabad (66%), Malda (51%), 

Uttar Dinajpur (49%), and South 24 Parganas (35%), voting patterns operate in blocs, not fragments.

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