Long back, Justice V R Krishna Iyer had said that this is an era of guided missiles and misguided politicians. This seems to be often prophetic for politicians during elections.
When 'misguided'; the Netas do often end up harming their own political interests. What's in store for the voters and the political leaders and parties in West Bengal ?
Sujapur assembly segment within Malda Dakshin Lok Sabha seat has one of West Bengal’s densest Muslim concentrations – as high as 89.3%.
** Poor people do not mind Mamata as long as cash flow is there.
$$ Left and Congress are too weak to fight TMC or create any split in anti-BJP votes.
The BJP is ambitious to unseat Mamata Banerjee. They tried hard in 2021 but could not even as the Lotus party emerged as the principal opposition party and the communists and Congress could not open account.
If hard work and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image are just a few 'advantages' with the saffron camp; the demography and the manner Muslim population are spread across .... give BJP huge disadvantage to penetrate deeper.
Thus. Battle of 2026 in 2026 will be less of ideology or Polarisation but more MATHEMATICAL. Why Mathematical or more of Arithmetic ?
The BJP’s good performances in a select belt came from Cooch Behar, parts of Uttar Dinajpur and pockets of North 24 Parganas.
The two well known Muslim-stronghold regions - Murshidabad, Malda and large sections of Nadia and even North 24 Parganas were held by the Mamata Banerjee-led outfit.
From the six border belts - there are 102 assembly seats in the 294-member state legislature.
These districts are Murshidabad (over 66 per cent Muslims), Malda (about 52 per cent Muslims), Uttar Dinajpur, North 24 Parganas, Cooch Behar and Nadia.
The Trinamool Congress had won 67 of the 102 Assembly seats in 2021.
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| TMC symbol: Writing on the wall and Blogger - Sitai region of Cooch Behar |
(Info-analysis --- In 2019, the Hindu-dominated Baharampur and Kandi assembly segments ensured Congress veteran Adhir Chowdhury’s victory in the Lok Sabha polls.
But in 2024; the BJP candidate harmed Chowdhury and Trinamool nominee Yusuf Pathan won the seat)
Of course, the RSS and BJP poll strategists would always cite the case of Uttar Pradesh to drive home the point that India's largest Muslim population state could be captured more than once. But still things may not work in West Bengal simply because Muslims in Bengal are in 'blocs' in a very large number of seats.
In contrast in Yogi Adityanath's UP, Muslims are more "dispersed across constituencies and rarely form decisive blocks". Thus, it was no surprising that in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election, the Trinamool Congress won 123 of the 160 seats especially from
South 24 Parganas,
North 24 Parganas,
Murshidabad and Birbhum.
Therefore, real battle in next year's elections will be in following districts - where Muslim population is substantial.
Birbhum (37.06% Muslims),
Cooch Behar (25.5–26.5%), Nadia (26.76%),
Howrah (26.20%)
North 24 Parganas (25.82%).
Murshidabad (66.27%),
Malda (51.27%)
Uttar Dinajpur (49.92%) and South 24 Parganas (35.57%).
Additional Info-analyses:
** Hindus in many places face discrimination and oppression in West Bengal.
-- Fear works and they often speak vaguely
** There have bee curbs imposed on Hindu festivals.
The appeasement of Muslims is a reality. But even in some pockets; Hindus have the status of 'second-class citizens' ...; they vote for Trinamool like probably for years they did for the communists.
Therefore, the BJP and the RSS will have to work for "further and deeper expansion in Hindu-majority areas".
The saffron party will have to do well in -- Kolkata - and industrial belt.
** Also in non-Muslim parts of North Bengal, Here seats are around 20 only and therefore they will have to win practically all the seats.
This also means the BJP will have to work harder in the Jungle Mahal region,
But all these are easy said than done.
* TMC has organisatonal presence everywhere.
** Poor people do not mind Mamata as long as cash flow is there.
*** Trinamool's "syndicate" also controls shows in many segments especially among Hindus.
$$ Left and Congress are too weak to fight TMC or create any split in anti-BJP votes.
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| Rural Bengal |
In 2024 Lok Sabha polls - the split in Muslim votes between parties pledging Sickularsm helped BJP retain Malda Uttar Lok Sabha, where Muslims constitute about 45% of the population.
Raiganj, where the Muslim share of the demography is about 46%, also came to the BJP. How things actually work ? --
In Raiganj, the Left-Congress cumulative vote share stood at 20.8% in 2019.
The BJP won the seat securing 40% vote.
In the 2021 assembly election, Muslim votes polarised in the TMC’s favour.
But in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, votes split like in 2019 – the BJP won with 41% vote share.
TMC polled 36% and the Left-Congress alliance secured 19.24%.
In 2024, voters polarised behind the Congress, giving its Malda Dakshin candidate a lead of 83,629 votes from Sujapur.
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| A Faceless resident : Perhaps also a voter |
In Baharampur Lok Sabha, where the Muslim share of the population is slightly above the Hindus, a majority of Muslim votes appear to be gone to the TMC’s Yusuf Pathan, former cricketer.
Hindu votes remained divided between the Congress, the BJP, and the TMC. This helped the TMC breach the Congress bastion, which has been represented by Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury since 1999.
In Jangipur and Murshidabad seats, where Muslims make up two-thirds of the demography, the contest was between the TMC and the Left-Congress alliance. T
TMC won both with handsome margins – 1.16 lakh in Jangipur and 1.64 lakh in Murshidabad.
ends
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