In February this year, Manipur was placed under President's Rule and the assembly was suspended after chief minister N Biren Singh had tendered his resignation.
Biren Singh had stepped down due to internal politics and the saffron party never had problems of numbers in the House.
 |
| Beleaguered Biren Singh : Can he strike back ? |
The Assembly was suspended. Elections in Manipur are due by March 2027 along with Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab and Goa.
The BJP MLAs in Manipur are in Delhi now and set for a meeting with the party's national president J P Nadda and other senior leaders and Union Ministers if necessary on December 14th, Sunday.
The fact that such a meeting has been convened in the middle of Parliament session indicates things are likely to be explored with all earnestness.
The deliberations will focus on the need to arrive at a structured decision on the formation of a new government in the state. That such a meeting has been convened in the national capital shows - the BJP central leadership and the centre may have some plans up their sleeves. But challenges are complex.
The party's central leadership is in dilemma chiefly to ensure participation of Kuki legislators in the new government. The Lotus party has six Kuki legislators but all of them may not attend.
Even if BJP and other Kuki legislators either as individuals and as a bloc decide otherwise - they are under immense pressure from the community and multiple pressure groups not to give up the strong stance taken that they want a 'separate administration'.
Hence, it is likely that the Kuki BJP MLAs in all likelihood will not agree to join the new government.
The Kuki-Zo community's refrain so far has been - 'The issue before Kuki and Zo people is not whether we have President's Rule or a new popular government in Manipur. Our issue and principal narrative is for a new and exclusive administration for the Kukis".
The ethnic conflict between Kukis and Meities had engulfed the state since May 3, 2023. The unrest has claimed over 260 lives and displaced more than 60,000 people across the state. A large number of Kuki-Zo people have moved to Mizoram as well.
Rehabilitation of internally displaced people has figured lately and even the Sangai Festival was embroiled in controversy.
This was a major issue of embarrassment for Governor Ajay Bhalla too.
Since 2023; Meiteis are unable to visit Kuki strongholds such as Churachandpur and Kukis are unable to visit Meitei-dominant Imphal and valley regions.
BJP’s North East coordinator Sambit Patra has taken the initiative for the meeting and state unit president A Sharda Devi is also expected to be present at the meeting.
Meiteis have 40 MLAS in the 60-member assembly and there are 20 others shared by Nagas and Kuki-Zo people - 10 each community.
In the present Assembly, BJP has 32 members and hence can form a government of its own. But there are six Kukis; and even if the latter's commitment for political stability is doubtful due to community pressures; the Lotus outfit may take the help of three Independent MLAs.
A section of BJP MLAs have hinted that they may press for an 'exclusive' BJP government.
In such a scenario; the NPP, JD-U and NPF may be kept at bay. These moves may have certain complex challenges.
If the Kuki MLAs are forced to stick to the community decision - no participation with Meiteis in a ministry; the centre may have the option of early dissolution of the suspended assembly.
If the assembly is dissolved now, Governor Ajay Bhalla can order a snap poll by March-April 2026 with West Bengal and three other states including Assam. But analysts despite Bihar win and even an exemplary success in Kerala local body polls; things may not be very favourable for the BJP in the electoral fray.
But a powerful lobby of Meitei population want early installation of a popular government. The sitting MLAs and former ministers will need adequate funds to face the elections in 2027.
Even army actions have been intensified in the recent past under President's Rule and this night have unruffled some feathers. The Meitei leaders apprehend if a popular government is not installed at the earliest; going would be more tough for the saffron party candidates.
Will Biren Singh be again the leader ... essentially by default ?
What goes in favour of N Biren Singh - as against a popular perception that the high command may like to see him replaced - is that no sitting MLA has so far thrown an open challenge to his leadership.
So, high command can always say - "we will not any leadership". But BJP has replaced chief ministers in Uttarakhand and Gujarat on the eve of elections and the move had paid dividends earlier.
Moreover, he had Home Minister Amit Shah's confidence till Feb 13, 2025 when the President's Rule was imposed. So he may continue to enjoy that confidence 'by default'.
Moreover, influential Meitei civil society and 'other powerful lobbies' may openly or otherwise still back Biren Singh.
emds
No comments:
Post a Comment