Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Trust latest 'Opinion poll' ? :: NDA to get 399; India TV-CNX survey gives BJP 3 each in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, 22 in Bengal and 73 in Uttar Pradesh

Even as the Congress still remains undecided about Amethi and Rae Bareli, the survey claims the grand old party may not open account in Uttar Pradesh.

Out of total 80, in the northern state, the BJP may get 73, RLD 2, Apna Dal (S) 2, Samajwadi Party - 3 and BSP -0.


(Survey says out of total 543 seats, the BJP-NDA may get 399 and Congress and other Opposition parties in I.N.D.I.A may manage 94 only.


And others including Trinamool Congress may get 50; while the Congress is likely to win one each in Meghalaya and Manipur but surprisingly no seat in Assam. 


 The latest survey by India TV-CNX leaves BJP happy and fairly satisfied with 399 seats for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but it also tells the story of West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool is not far behind the saffron party.


The Opinion Poll gives BJP 22 out of 42 seats - that is 4 seats more than 2019 tally and says that Trinamool would get 19 while Congress will get 1.






For the BJP, the pleasant news comes from two southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala -- where the survey claims the Lotus party will be able to manage three seats each. So far, in BJP's electoral history, Kerala has never given it any breakthrough including during the peak of Narendra Modi's popularity in 2014 and 2019; and also after Kargil conflict in 1999.  The survey from Karnataka would sound 'unbelievable' for Congress as it has been given only four seats out of 28. In contrast, the saffron party is likely to register win in 22 seats and JD(S) of Deve Gowda family may walk away with two seats. 


Surprisingly, for Congress in Manipur -- there is some good news as out of two seats -- the grand old party may get one.


The alleged influence of money and 'power in Delhi and state capitals' always play major role in deciding the outcome of Lok Sabha elections in Manipur and other northeastern states. However, apparently the ethnic conflict between Meiteis and Kukis could tilt the balance in favour of Congress especially in Outer Manipur.

In Meghalaya too, survey gives one seat to Congress and this could be encouraging for Vincent Pala, who is seeking re-election from the prestigious Shillong parliamentary seat.  


In Kerala, the survey says the Congress-led UDF has an edge with possible chance to pick up 10 seats while the CPI-M-led LDF may get only 7.
The survey gives CPI-M - 5, three for BJP --- CPI-1, KC-M 1, IUML 2, RSP 1 and Congress - 7.


The battle in Wayanad is likely to be three cornered between CPI nominee Annie Raja, BJP's K Surendran and of course sitting MP Rahul Gandhi of the grand old party. 


In Madhya Pradesh,the survey gives BJP clean sweep of all 29 seats and similarly, the saffron party is likely to win all seven in Delhi, all two in Goa, 26 in Gujarat, 10 in Haryana and 4 in Himachal Pradesh.

If the Opinion Poll is given credence, the Lotus party is set to win all 25 in Rajasthan yet again.
 
In last two elections, the BJP has been registering clean sweep in Gujarat and Rajasthan.  

In Maharashtra, out of 4; the BJP may get 27, Shiv Sena-UBT 7, NCP (Ajit) 2, Shiv Sena-Shinde 8, NCP-Sharad 2, Congress 1, Others 1)








Following is the state-wise break-up of India TV-CNX Opinion Poll projections: 

Andhra Pradesh: Total 25 (YSRCP 10, TDP 12, BJP 3) 

Arunachal Pradesh: Total 2 (BJP 2)


Assam: Total 14 (BJP 11, AGP 1, UPPL 1, AIUDF 1, Congress 0)


Bihar: Total 40 (BJP 17, JD-U 14, RJD 1, LJP(R) 5, HAM 1, RLM 1, Congress 1)

Chhattisgarh: Total 11 (BJP 10, Congress 1) 

Goa: Total 2 (BJP 2)

 
Gujarat: Total 26 (BJP 26)
 
Haryana: Total 10 (BJP 10)
 
Himachal Pradesh: Total 4 (BJP 4) 

Jharkhand: Total 14 (BJP 12, AJSU 1, JMM 1) 

Karnataka: Total 28 (BJP 22, JDS 2, Congress 4)

Kerala: Total 20 (UDF 10, LDF 7, NDA 3) Breakup: Congress 7, CPI-M 5, BJP 3, CPI 1, KC-M 1, IUML 2, RSP 1

Madhya Pradesh: Total 29 (BJP 29) 

Maharashtra: Total 48 (BJP 27, Shiv Sena-UBT 7, NCP (Ajit) 2, Shiv Sena-Shinde 8, NCP-Sharad 2, Congress 1, Others 1)

Manipur: Total 2 (BJP 1, Congress 1) 

Meghalaya: Total 2 (NPP 1, Congress 1) 

Mizoram: Total 1 (ZPM 1) 

Nagaland: Total 1 (NDPP 1) 

Odisha: Total 21 (BJD 11, BJP 10) 

Punjab: Total 13 (AAP 6, Congress 3, BJP 3, SAD 1)

Rajasthan: Total 25 (BJP 25) 

Sikkim: Total 1 (SKM 1) 

Tamil Nadu: Total 39 (DMK 18, AIADMK 4, BJP 3, Congress 8, PMK 1, Others 5)

Telangana: Total 17 (Congress 9, BJP 5, BRS 2, AIMIM 1)

Tripura: Total 2 (BJP 2) 

Uttar Pradesh: Total 80 (BJP 73, NDA allies RLD 2, Apna Dal (S) 2, SP 3, Congress 0, BSP 0) 

Uttarakhand: Total 5 (BJP 5) 

West Bengal: Total 42 (Trinamool Congress 19, BJP 22, Congress 1) 

Andaman and Nicobar: Total 1 (BJP 1) 

Chandigarh: Total 1 (BJP 1) 

Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu: Total 2 (BJP 2) 

Jammu and Kashmir: Total 5 (BJP 3, National Conference 3, Congress 0, PDP 0) 

Ladakh: Total 1 (BJP 1) 

Lakshadweep: Total 1 (Congress 1) 

Delhi: Total 7 (BJP 7 ) 

Puducherry: Total 1 (BJP 1) 

Total 543 seats: NDA 399, I.N.D.I.A. 94, Others including TMC 50.



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