Even as the west, Australia, global South and even Vladimir Putin is keen to wooing Narendra Modi;
the real question is whose side is the Prime Minister?
Well, his story is 'From tea boy to India’s leader' but there can be no denying the fact that the charismatic man's rise to the top in world largest democracy and now the world's fifth largest economy is certainly and interestingly marked by allegations of civil rights abuses, pushing the Hindutva's communal agenda and also a very successful economic manager and a good hand in administration too.
Tomorrow all of us will look back at certain obvious questions and some sorts of predicament. Before you go further this extract from London's 'The Guardian' tells you an interesting story, actually a saga !!
"Suddenly, everyone loves India. But it’s an affair, not a marriage. Whether it lasts depends on the consequences of this week’s watershed election. At stake are the credibility of Indian democracy and, potentially, the country’s future as a cohesive unitary state," runs the article by Simon Tisdoll.
Almost anything can become history or even heritage. 1942 was the hyped 'Quit India' movement; that's true -- but there's also an episode. It was around that time the seed of India's Partition was sown. The 1947 need not be blamed singularly. Much later, we have Emergency becoming part of India's heritage. Even the family planning was such an episode.
But what is the legacy of last 10 years under Modi -- Indian democracy is under threat !! What is really under threat could be the good old Jugadu culture, Mumbai's nepotism, Delhi's pushy and mutual admiration clubs and dynasts. The elites !!
The urban Naxals...etc etc .... !! But the issue we are supposed to debate is ---
Why is France eyeing friendship with Modi to boost its military trade ? How Germany sees India as "an $18bn land of export opportunities" ? What's India's importance in the Quad - which has Australia, Japan and of course the US? Of course, India is unique and an important partner for the US at a time when America needs a powerful and populous counterweight to China.
Now comes other issues - the US may have a speed of its own and thus have high expectations. But India has its 'own speed' and also direction. It will not grow or undertake reform trajectories fast enough. There is another growing concern. Probably the US may 'overestimate' what India can do militarily from an American perspective !
Here comes the Russian angle and gentleman called Putin. Kindly note, the India’s government cheered when Vladimir Putin won last month’s “election” and prior to that in 2022, Russia offered a 'sweetheart deal' on cut-price oil when Ukraine sanctions almost isolated Russia globally.
Dr S Jaishankar, India's foreign minister, had rightly said in April 2022 - “When the oil prices go up, I think it is natural for the countries to go out into the market and look for what are good deals for their people". Amid all these, the US, the Europe and many other players are worried. They want Modi's friendship when he is 'power'; -- that means most may want to see his exit from the corridors of power.
Hence, they pose a question -- sometime directed in 'first person' --- Is the Narendra Modi 'miracle' for real – - - or for a delusion or illusion that could disappear into thin air ? Thus, some mischief remarks here and there to show the west has 'assets' and a few could be behind the bars too !!
"India is the key swing state in a global struggle to determine the new world order. Whose side is he really on?," -- comes the relevant question from 'The Guardian' piece penned by Simon Tisdoll. Now, we may look at things from a little 'different' perspective.
It is obvious that one out of six people in the world live in India -- hence India matters. It also matters because of its gigantic task. Any big global issues - from security to climate change - none of those can be addressed without bringing India and without bringing India's Modi in the perspective.
India is also among the top 3 armed purchasers and a vast defence force along with the para military force too. Moreover, diplomatically India has able to project itself as a world leader in the last decade. The successful hosting of G-20 and the Delhi Declaration were the pointers on these lines.
In the meantime another vital thing has happened from the western and the US perspective. India is no longer hyphenated with its chaotic and unstable neighbour Pakistan. This has changed the entire game.
Bharat, that is India, is now considered the pivotal state/nation in Asia that can really alter the geo-political balance between China and the United States.
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10 years --- certainly a long period. In 2014, intellectuals believed Modi faced competition from becoming PM from Rahul and also Kejriwal ::: AAP boss is in jail and Rahul still the lacklustre
2024 .... Narendra Modi is unstoppable. There is perhaps no competition. In 2014, intellectuals believed Modi faced competition from becoming PM from Rahul Gandhi and also Arvind Kejriwal.
Even the AAP boss believed so and he contested against Namo in Varanasi. Of course he was handed over a thrashing defeat by a margin of over three lakhs. This year, former tax inspector - IRS officer - and an anti corruption crusader is behind bars on the charge of financial defalcation. Rahul Gandhi is still the good old lacklustre boy and hence Modi is truly blessed.
In the run up to the 2014 polls, historian and author William Dalrymple wrote in the 'New Statesman' magazine that:
"There is something about Rahul’s embarrassed smile that seems to acknowledge the stagey quality of the montage. If opinion polls are correct, he is likely to be even more embarrassed when the results are announced." The prophecy came true and the Congress strength was reduced to all time low at 42. No lesson was learnt and by 2019 for yet another Rahul pitted himself against Narendra Modi.
He tried gimmicks like embracing the Prime Minister in Lok Sabha (2018) in gross violation of parliamentary norms. If tearing off the Ordinance was the low point of Rahul's public gesture as a potential national leader during the Manmohan Singh's stint -- rushing to embrace Modi in Lok Sabha against whom the Congress party has so much hatred was yet another unbecoming type conduct.
Rahul only displayed his casual approach as he kept winkling in the House. There was a sense of entitlement working in him. I am the prince of democracy type. He smiled as if he has humbled Modi by his masterstroke and at the same Rahul kept on throwing up a hateful slogan :- "Desh ka Chowidar chor hae".
When yet again results came in; the Congress lost the battle once more. Refer 2014 article once again and it says -- "the ruggedly handsome Rahul Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru’s great-grandson, Indira’s grandson and Rajiv’s son: the heir to the dynasty that is India’s most striking example .....Sadly the good looks and family tree appear to be his only assets."
William Dalrymple also rightly wrote rather acidly: ".....Congress is as unpopular as it is partly because of its gross corruption while in office, and partly because of its deeply unimpressive economic performance during the past five years under the weak, uncharismatic and monosyllabic Sikh economist Dr Manmohan Singh.
Since being voted back into office in 2009, Singh has in effect halted the economic reforms that had made him so popular and retreated into a vast programme of rural benefits and agricultural welfarism."
Yet again, no lesson was learnt and that's why Congress manifesto has promised in 2024 a series of feebies. Economy does not disturb Rahul and hence he does not mind talking about OBC surveys and also wants to to reach out to voters across India.
The voters have their own priorities and hence not much is happening to suggest that Rahul is still the prime mnisterial face of the dynasts family. Instead, deliberately efforts have been made to avoid making the battle a 'bilateral' (mutual one between Namo and Rahul.
Hence, Rahul, who became Congress president in 2017 and resigned in 2019 after poll debacle is today the man often derided by political critics as “pappu” – or naive child.
No doubt, when Modi is talking about 400 plus and an hat-trick to power to equal himself with Nehru; Rahul faces a significant but major hurdle to lead India, including an ailing Congress party.
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