Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Certain things in politics call for perseverance.... that is 'continued efforts' !! For BJP, Kerala remains a far-cry ... perhaps exactly the manner Congress is today unable to take on Modi at national level

(Many say 'anti-Modi' obsession of Indian opposition parties without focusing on a genuine 'face' and alternative political and governance model have harmed the Congress and its allies.)


 They call it PERSEVERANCE ...meaning "continued efforts" to do or achieve something despite difficulties, shortcomings failures and stiff opposition.







In Kerala, one refrain in political circle is quite usual -- Where's the BJP? .......Onno BJP (or are you BJP ?) !!
But RSS is not new in the southern state and neither it has shied away from shedding sweat and blood. Yet....

On the similar fashion today -- 'revival' for India's grand old party - the Indian National Congress remains a distant dream. 


Let us deal a bit on Congress fault line first.  

There is no deep rooted strategy, methodology or any 'systematic' effort to rejuvenate it. Worst is perhaps the dependence that it can strike gold again as had happened in 2004.   

Then there is no 'will power' and the push to make major structural changes.

There is inertia when it comes to need to adopt new steps and 'investing' in leadership beyond the Nehru-Gandhi family. 


Then of course comes 'why so much' time and resources have been wasted on Rahul Gandhi. What is more important the party's success or 'revival' of the Congress party that would be ready to give all credits to Rahul Gandhi. Mother's love is blind !!


There is practically no planning to 'turn the tide' in party’s favor whenever such opportunities come and go especially in the last 10 years. 







Now let us take a look at BJP/RSS journey and real hard work in Kerala. 

Believe it or not, the RSS started functioning in Kerala in 1957 -- perhaps long before it went even in Assam.


Insiders say there are 5,140 shakhas in Kerala, according to a booklet published by the Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha. 


 'Shakhas' (local wings at the level of Mohalla and blocs) in Kerala could even outnumber them in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Yet when it comes to concrete electoral gain, it is nowhere. Experts say one reason is there was a time in Kerala when quite paradoxically the CPI-M had emerged as the 'pro Hindu and pro-upper caste party'.


For certain peculiar reasons, the Congress was the pro-minority party and that too heavily inclined towards Christians. Congress veteran Vayalar Ravi told this blogger around 2015-16 that when he had come to meet Sanjay Gandhi to join Youth Congress, one strong ad clear message from Sanjay Gandhi was stay away from RSS and try to work amongst Muslims and Christians. In other words, the RSS had significant presence in Kerala even in the 1970s when Sanjay was really powerful.

From late 1940s to 1963-64, the RSS had kept Kerala as part of Madras/or Tamil Nadu 'pranth'. 

But it is true, according to veteran Congressman from Kerala Vayalar Ravi, thanks to Indira-Sanjay duo and  their Emergency days that the membership of the RSS in Kerala shot up manifold between 1977 and 1983.


During the 1970s, Kerala had a Congress government headed by Indira's trusted man K Karunakaran and incidentally, the CPI backed the Emergency and thus  space was 'created' for the RSS to work more seriously with the people.



But the general tendency of the Hindu voters was to bank on CPI-M -- which was then a strong anti-Congress force both in Kerala and also West Bengal. It is also true that the merciless manner of operation/political functioning of Marxist and other Left cadres resulted in killings of RSS youth workers. An estimated 300 of them lost lives between the late 1960s and 2000. Otherwise, Kerala too would have seen BJP's growth like Karnataka. 


Moreover, the Leftist propaganda was superb and as a result educated lot stayed away from the RSS/Jan Sangh or later the BJP. 






But neither the BJP nor the RSS have given up on Kerala. But in 2018 when Leftists were ousted in Tripura, it was a big signal.


The BJP leaders used to say, how the BJP performed in Tripura was like a 'litmus test' handled successfully on how the party can perform in other Indian states where it is not in power. 


Tripura was ruled by communist government since 1998. The BJP party strategists knew this well. Tripura is/was not like the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where pro-Hindu issues such as the banning of beef, cow vigilantism, were under the political spotlight. In Tripura, they needed to tackle more pressing issues like unemployment, women empowerment, and industrialization.


Voters in Tripura are/were essentially pro-left. Many possess an intellectual affinity to Marxism and the communists have wielded power long and often in the state.


But the BJP leaders could break the umbilical cord between the voters and pro-Marxist intellectualism. Hence, there are hopes about Kerala in the saffron camp.







 For Congress: The biggest challenge was to 'tarnish' Modi's popularity 


And precisely this was the area, they failed. While select media especially the western newspapers websites and English newspapers backed Rahul Gandhi every day --  the judgement they sought to pass was erratic. The mandate in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh were chiefly due to local factors. Both the states have the tendency to throw out the incumbent regime(s). But the spin doctors cajoled by the likes of Jairam Ramesh interpreted the entire show as results of Rahul's Bharat Jodo Yatra.

Even Rahul started believing the same. Thus, when the crux of the competition came, the Congress fumbled badly and was humbled in three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. Telangana was only a consolation and so slowly the Karnataka reality came to light. 






"But despite the Congress’ gloomy prospects, its rejuvenation remains crucial for India’s political opposition at the national level," runs an article in 'The Diplomat'.

It points out that though a number of strong regional parties have posited formidable challenges to the BJP in states such as West Bengal or NCP in Maharashtra; no opposition party other than the Congress has the national support base.


The Janata parivar used to unite against Congress. This happened in the 1975 and aftermath and also in the 1980s when V P Singh had emerged a 'face' taking on Rajiv Gandhi.


In last 10 years we saw no one! And hence TINA (there is no alternative) factor today goes abundantly in favour of Narendra Modi.



Election tracker: The Blogger and the woods of northeast



 



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