Lack of consistency in the Trump administration’s "engagement" with India is a big challenge
Indo-US relationship should ideally become more transactional and less emotive—
but --- importantly - not necessarily adversarial.
The US must be on a weak footing now. It wants to repair ties with the US.
But challenges remain. The most striking part is Unpredictability.
India, which imports 90% of its crude oil, had come under pressure after Donald Trump slapped a punitive 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil.
It was lifted in February this year. Reportedly, India has agreed to limit purchases of Russian oil. Moreover, the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz greatly reduced India’s access to oil. The main issue is a lack of consistency.
Trump does not have a public or even diplomatic commitment to this relationship. Assessing the situations in larger geo-strategic landscape, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked his fellow Indian citizens to work from home to save fuel and also take other measures both at the level of government departments and PSU-run oil companies.
The India-U.S. relation is presently undergoing through a tough phase, especially after the US’s decision to sharply raise the tariffs on Indian exports to 50% on a wide range of products – has caused deep concern & disappointment in India. However, India-US relationship is anchored in resilience, strategic convergence, and people-to-people ties. In this regard, let us broadly understand the importance, key areas of cooperation & challenges in India-U.S. relationship.
Nevertheless, certain positive steps are still possible.
What can be the way forward?
** Pursue the “Mission 500” goal of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 through a multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) that reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
** Strengthen supply chain integration, increase market access, and enhance trade in industrial and agricultural products.
Continue dialogue to resolve trade disputes and create a balanced and fair trade environment.
Strengthening Security & Strategic Partnership:
Build on the U.S.-India COMPACT initiative to catalyze military partnerships and expand defense industrial cooperation.
Accelerate negotiations on a Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement to facilitate defense trade and co-production. Scale joint defense industry collaborations in autonomous systems and advanced technologies to enhance Indo-Pacific security.
Expand cooperation through forums like the Quad and India-Middle East-Europe Corridor to support economic connectivity and maintain a free, open Indo-Pacific.
Advancing Technology :::
Launch new initiatives like INDUS Innovation for industry-academic partnerships in areas like space, energy, AI, and strategic minerals.
Develop a U.S.-India Roadmap on Accelerating AI Infrastructure and strengthen cooperation on critical and emerging technologies.
As it is ... China’s expanding connectivity initiatives in South Asia and the Indian Ocean is a growing area of concern for India.
New Delhi looks at the Belt and Road Initiative with suspicion and as a Chinese foreign policy tool to advance its strategic goals.
Of particular concern is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through the disputed territory of Kashmir and, according to Delhi, violates India’s sovereignty.
Now the ongoing Iran war has made things more complicated.
Washington’s relationship with Pakistan has always been a sticky point in the India-US relationship, but Govt of India was able to garner Washington’s support in 2017 for its call on Pakistan to stop sponsoring terrorism.
According to the joint statement, Pakistan should ‘ensure that its territory is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries’ and ‘expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai, Pathankot, and other cross-border terrorist attacks perpetrated by Pakistan-based groups’.
But in 2025 - Trump himself played a spoiler. He took Munir on his lap and sought to embarrass New Delhi and especially PM Narendra Modi repeatedly.
Trump has upended many of India’s assumptions about the nature of its relationship with the United States: The bedrock was an economic partnership, with a marginal role for Pakistan and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump’s tariffs, his close relationship with Pakistan’s leaders and his seeming desire to cultivate stronger ties with China have called all of those assumptions into question. These have left India practically without a trust-worthy framework for engagements.
India is concerned that it would lose its value to the United States and become dispensable once the U.S. relationship with China stabilizes, said Constantino Xavier, an expert on South Asia at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a research institute based in New Delhi.
Trump and Xi’s meeting might not lead to anything, Xavier said, but it has made Indian officials anxious about becoming the U.S. president’s “backup plan,”
.... to be used as a tool to threaten China when he wants.
“The dispensability is increasing, and the utility is decreasing,” he said.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sign the framework on securing supplies of mining and processing of critical minerals in New Delhi.
ends
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