The June 4th, 2026 order by NSCN-IM president Q Tuccu on expulsion of two prominent 'rebels' has of course stirred a hornet's nest. But it was perhaps expected.
But a closer study bring in multiple aspects of the multi-layered complexities vis-a-vis the Naga issue and the future of an organisation - hat continues to create enough headache for Govt of India.
Tribalism is one. And as 'assessments' have been made in Delhi - another indication is about 'Nagaland state' boundary and the larger canvas of 'greater Nagaland or Nagalim'.
In more ways than one; an analyst says the order of expulsion against
Hs Ramsan and Lt Gen (Retd) A. Raman
is "best understood as a defensive consolidation measure by NSCN (IM) leadership or the Hebron camp".
In simpler sense; the expulsion has been "undertaken" to preserve command authority in favour of Thuingaleng Muivah, his cronies and also the likes of V S Atem.
"But from far off in Delhi; we have taken note that the Tuccu's order seeks to deny legitimacy to an emerging rival pole," says someone in the know of things.
The Big Picture message too is simple. - Let us assure that the wider organisation and the Hebron camp can "retain" the power to contol finance, trading in arms etc, maintain discipline and also continue to define the movement.
In this 'defining' role about the Naga movement - comes New Delhi's anxieties. The purpose of the Ceasefire and the peace talks should not be defeated at all.
According to informed sources, in 2016, the then Chief Minister T R Zeliang apparently understand the complexities of the challenges ahead. Thus he had tried to make a sensible statement by stating that Isak Chishi Swu's death came at a crucial juncture when the Naga Political problem appeared to be on the verge of being solved once and for all.
The death was certainly lamentable as every bereavement is tragic.
“But since the Almighty has pre-determined period of time for all of us in this world, we have to be content with the divine plans. However, to ensure the memory, life and contributions of our legendary leader (Isak Chishi Swu) do not go in vain, we the living must endeavour to fulfil the precious dream he could not witness when alive:
Let all sections of the Naga people come together, sink our differences and concertedly work to bring about an early solution to the Naga problem,” Zelaing had said.
Those were lofty words but not much could be achieved on ground due to multiple problems.
Making deeper assessment, the typical 'sarkari version' in Delhi also is that the "severity" of the expulsion
... reveals vulnerability of Hebron as they if confident in internal cohesion would not usually had to publish this order with sweeping accusations and total rank-stripping against the two Eastern Flank leaders.
There have been 12 charges brought against Ramsan and Raman. New Delhi may soon have to do a much closer analysis of how much influence these two leaders have on the organisation, the cadres and the support base -- especially the Tangkhul population - in Manipur, in Nagaland and beyond.
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| Ramson |
Nevertheless; analyses of situations and 'strengths and weaknesses' factors suggest - the NSCN (IM) leadership or the Hebron camp is likely to retain the 'central institutional weight' in the near term.
However, another expert on insurgency handling says: "The recurring coercive assertions of authority point to unresolved strains that could resurface in the form of quiet defections, localised dissent or future restructuring."
Even from the point of view of shared inputs between Myanmar authorities and Indian counterparts; a Call for General Amnesty by Hebron to the cadres of Eastern Flank and making them join within a specified period cannot be ruled out.
There is also a role in all these for "strengthening the structures" vis-a-vis Myanmar areas of operation under 'Maj Gen' Alen Siro.
The contexts of broader peace process, the implications are mixed but overall cautionary.
One version is quite understandable.
"The problem s that is despite the truckload of accusations with treason as the irreversible charge, let's not jump the gun. Amnesty, forgiveness, one blood, once cherished comrades etc ... when Tangkhul interest is concerned, they will make up".
Almost endorsing this version, a retired military official says: "East, west, north and south, the Tangkhuls may not get along but in Nagaland state, they may".
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| Muivah; ailing and aging NSCN-IM stalwart |
On a different plane
"Such instability within NSCN-IM raises questions about representational depth, internal consent and durability of any eventual settlement," - is the refrain from one set of experts.
Another school of thought presumably agrees with the spirit of such an assessment and insists : --
"If underlying disputes are rooted in succession, authority or resource control, the current action may postpone rather than resolve the structural drivers of fragmentation."
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Therefore, the moot question is that will the internal split deepen as the leadership authority is being centralised by Hebron or operational uncertainty would increase?
But it is also clear, the expulsion order indicates reconciliation efforts have failed so future dialogue may become harder between the Hebron camp and the Eastern Flank.
But there is something called the "hegemony of Tangkuls" in theoverall running of the NSCN-IM over the decades.
Thus, it is likely that in due course of time and beyond; Atem will continue to reach out to H S Ramsan and A Raman for mediation and de-escalation.
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| Common Naga women in Mon region - file snap |
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