The $300-billion weak link in US-Iran peace deal that could restart the war ::::: Deal will leave things almost exactly as they were before feckless war of choice started

The $300-billion weak link in US-Iran peace deal that could restart the war

Tehran has been bolstered by its proven capacity to close the strait of Hormuz 

Amid the US-Iran peace deal, here is a look at how Iran has seemingly turned postwar negotiations into economic leverage. 

There is perhaps a reason why President Donald Trump is eager to project the deal as a victory, and how the proposed $300-billion reconstruction package might leave the peace agreement in tatters.  

Trump declares US-Iran peace deal ‘all signed’ as G7 leaders battle to tie up loose ends

US President says Strait of Hormuz will be open from Friday but questions remain over waterway fees and Israeli breaches of ceasefire in Lebanon. 

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Trump hails Iran deal that fixes nothing except a problem his war caused

Deal will leave things almost exactly as they were before feckless war of choice started  

If we get to a Friday signing ceremony without this uncertain new US-Iran deal being derailed by any of its inherent ambiguities, then nuclear talks can finally restart in the same place – and at almost exactly the same point they were before this conflict started.

The world will have irrevocably been changed in other ways. There is no going back for the 120 Iranian children in Minab killed in their primary school in the war’s first hours, nor for their bereaved parents, or any of the thousands in Iran, Lebanon and around the region whose lives were erased or blighted by a feckless war of choice.

Iran itself has been changed as a state and society in ways which will only become clear in the coming months and years, but for the time being it is evident the military has been strengthened at the expense of secular civilian governance. 

Freedom and basic rights for Iranians are as elusive as they were before the conflict, maybe more so.

Tehran has been bolstered by its proven capacity to close the strait of Hormuz and squeeze the lifeblood of the global economy.  

Ultimately, the ships will only start their engines and the oil begin to flow through the strait of Hormuz when the shipping companies and insurance companies judge it to be safe – and that may be some days or weeks off.

The reopening of one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints would mark a major step towards ending the months of deadly conflict and economic turmoil triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with oil, out of the strait of Hormuz,” Trump said, adding later that he did not “think we will need much help” keeping the waterway open, AFP reports.

Iran had blockaded the strait since the start of the war, sending oil prices soaring and raising fears of a prolonged inflation shock, while the US then blocked shipping to and from Iranian ports.

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