‘Coalition of rivals’ lasts only a few months. The electorate is clear that it wants a five year Government and not a five month one. It is thus confronted with the choice of a Modi vs. Chaos. Obviously, the electorates’ wisdom has to be trusted when he makes a choice. The ‘Modi mandate’ could be larger than 2014.
This is what Late Arun Jailey wrote on May 10, 2019 -- about thirteen days before the vote count of 2019 general elections. True, Modi than got a 'larger' mandate than 2014 as the BJP was able to cross 300 mark.
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| Late Arun Jaitley |
Jaitley could political pulse very well.
"Where it’s Congress versus BJP, the Congress is unable to give a fight. Some regional combinations are trying to make a semblance of a fight. But India has changed.
"The youth defy the traditional caste arithmetic. Dynasties are more ridiculed than cherished. The ‘New India’ judges the performance of its leaders very harshly. It has tried and finally trusted the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
"The new generation of the Gandhis believes that national security is a non-issue. Quite to the contrary, when national security issues are raised in large public meetings, the applause for the leader is the maximum," Jaitley had written.
Now in 2026; we may appreciate well what Jaitley had predicted.
One, see Assam - where BJP's confrontation was directly against Congress; the grand old party could not give a befitting fight even as it had 10-year anti-incumbency against the BJP.
Secondly, the punishment meted to Mamata Banerjee and her party is pretty "harsh". This symbolises the verdict of a 'New India' and hence 'new Bengal'. In a previous blog - we have discussed how .. even the supposed pro-Left voters abandoned their old track and had decided to vote for the saffron out.
The pro-Left voters also know the dangerous path Mamata had taken. She was almost dreaming of running an 'independent' nation of West Bengal. She did no implement several welfare schemes of the central government including Ayushman Bharat and Ujjwala scheme.
Mamata had also declined to enforce new set of criminal laws BNS replacing the old CrPC provisions.
Mamata herself showed disrespect to the office of President and the Prime Minister. She even encouraged the then chief secretary to break protocol vis-s-vis PM Modi's visit during cyclone in 2021.
Such a dispensation deserved to be voted out.
Thirdly, Jaitley also had maintained that while the opposition parties thought 'national security' is/was a non-issue; in contrast ... whenever .....
national security issues are raised in large public meetings, the applause for the Prime Minister Modi used to be the maximum.
The new India and the new Bengal do give enough importance to the issue of nationalism and hence Hindu polarisation had taken place in such a grand manner.
The paradox of 2026 mandate is -- while the Muslim votes split; the Hindu votes got united.
BJP's penetration into Odisha, Bihar, and now West Bengal is actually the displacement of regional political cultures by a pro-Hindutva national electoral machine.
This signalled the exit of Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Pataik and Nitish Kumar. In addition, we saw the DMK being 'vanquished' in Tamil Nadu -- of course not by the BJP. But the new template created by a popular film star Vijay in Tamil Nadu has able to break the binary of DMK and AIADMK dynamics.
According to BJP leader Annamalai, the Tamil Nadu mandate has to be "welcomed" and he hinted that cleaning process of the state politics may happen there in next five years. Prior to that two strong regional forces NCP and Shiv Sena were also weakened in Maharashtra.
In UP, the Samajwadi Party and BSP were marginalised even as the Akhilesh Yadav-led outfit did pretty well in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In Bihar, the JD-U is now playing second fiddle to the the BJP which has the chief minister and the RJD is left as a struggling outfit.
The defeat of previous regional satraps in more ways than one represent democracy’s "correcting mechanism" in action.
"India’s Constitution guarantees not strong states but strong chief ministers. When they are simultaneously president, chief fundraiser, and irrevocable authority of their parties, state government and party government become a single organism. But when that organism decays, there is no institutional immune system to contain the infection," writes Jayanta Sengupta in 'The Telegraph'.
It is true Naveen, Nitish, and Mamata each personalised governance to the point where their parties cannot easily survive their departure. Far from being a coincidence, it is what the system — as built and practised — inevitably produces.
The same goes with Mayawati of Uttar Pradesh. What is to be noted about BJP strategy is that Mamata is not the first leader who is accused to pursuing politics of Muslim-appeasement.
In 2017, the Samajwadi Party that was accused of appeasing Muslims.
Furthermore - luck would have it too. As they say, in politics fortune often favours the one who makes first move bravely.
The rivals Congress and Samajwadi Party (the socialist party with good support base among a caste group Yadavs and Muslims) tried to reach out to the religious minority, Modi’s half the task became easier.
Hence as he achieved ‘reverse polarisation’ among Hindus -- the result was near decimation of all rivals and BJP ended up picking 312 seats in 403-member assembly.
"If land is given for a [Muslim] cemetery in a village, it should also be given for [Hindu] cremation. If electricity is supplied during Ramadan, it should also be supplied during Diwali. There should not be discrimination," Modi had said at a rally in 2017 trying to take a shot at Akhillesh Yadav.
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| Blogger |
ends
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