Not traditional soothsaying, but time to share optimism on Modi's Europe Yatra

New Delhi 

In 2016, the European Union circulated a vision statement wherein it was eloquently
articulated that there is a direct connection between European prosperity and Asian security. 

As they say, in light of the 'economic weight that Asia represents' for the EU —and perhaps also vice versa— peace and stability in Asia are a prerequisite for Europe's prosperity.

 
The European Union did pledge to deepen economic diplomacy and scale up security roles in Asia. 

These references have been necessary to do a post mortem on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to three key European players - Germany, France and Denmark and also Modi's interaction with Nordic nations.

Macon, Modi - Personal chemistry 

France and Germany have been India's trusted friends through ups and downs including the Cold War era.

In the new era, France is a strategic partner and is supplying Rafale jets, whether Rahul Gandhi likes it or not.

Germany has been a good friend too. Veteran diplomats often try to recall that way back in 1959, the then German chancellor Konrad Adenauer decided to fund the establishment of Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) including in Madras (Chennai). 

The support consisted of German experts for teaching and in setting up laboratories and workshops. 

IITs changed India's story in more ways than one.

Please note the timeline again. This was the period when the Americans were focused on their South Asian

friend named Pakistan.

Moving on to another paradigm. PM Modi's visit to Europe came when two developments hit Europe's

foreign policy dimension the most - the EU’s relationship with China gets dented due to Beijing’s 

position in the Ukraine war and the EU is 'concerned' about Vladimir Putin's neo-aggressiveness in Europe.

In contrast, India's foreign policy has another dimension. New Delhi could be concerned about 

Beijing's aggressiveness too - but there is a platform called RIC - Russia, India and China and

this platform may try to see a lot of transitions in their policies mutually and also outside.

It was everyone's case to argue that Narendra Modi’s visit to Europe would help both sides acquire a better understanding of each other’s issues and concerns.

Things went as part of plans too and somewhere even beyond expectations.

“In times like these, we need to build an even stronger bridge between us. We discussed the war in Ukraine… Denmark and the entire European Union strongly condemn Russia’s unlawful and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine," Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen could not have been more explicit. 

She said Denmark hoped that India “will influence” Russia to spread the message. PM Modi did his part in the given circumstance and called for 'ceasefire'. The world media latched onto it. This shows things have moved much beyond what was 20-30 years back.

                                                               

Mette Frederiksen and Namo !!

Notably, Chancellor Scholz’s invitation to PM Modi to the G7 summit in Germany is also rightly seen as a special gesture, but not something pathbreaking. 

Even in the past, Prime Ministers Dr Manmohan Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee had been invited to this august gathering.

But perhaps more important part of the German-India story was Scholz driving home the point that Germany is “pleased” to have partners like India and another Asian player Indonesia and a few countries in Africa to do business. Importantly again, he emphasised - German-India ties evenin Indo Pacific.

“What is clear is that the Indo-Pacific belongs to the most dynamic global regions. And at the same 

time, it is confronted with a lot of conflicts and challenges. Thus, Germany is going to maintain and 

further intensify .....India is amongst one of our very important partners here," he said.

With French President Emmanuel Macron, the Prime Minister (Modi) made it clear that it is not the 

'position on war' that matters but the ability to push for solutions does. Modi shared his thoughts about 

the global consequence of the Ukraine war and its impact on food security of poorer nations. 

Of course, even at the global stage it is believed both France and India are in a position to

exert some influence on Putin.

Both President Macron amd Mr Modi have spoken to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and also

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to end violence at the earliest. 

There are many things to look back on Modi's recent Europe tour. 

One thing needs to re-emphasised even from an objective prism of a journalist that 

the Modi administration has singularly placed country's 'self-interest' above all issues in the Ukraine crisis.

New Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra has underlined it clearly - "I think insofar as India's position on Ukraine is concerned, it has been amplified, made clear, enunciated in great detail in multiple fora".

External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar also articuated his views. "..... this is a wake-up call for Europe to start looking at Asia. This is a part of the world with unsettled boundaries, terrorism, and continuous challenges to the rules-based order. The rest of the world has to recognise that problems are not 'going to happen', but that they are happening."

Certain facts cannot be oversighted.  India is the world’s largest arms importer, accounting for 11 percent of global arms imports in 2017-2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).  

Nearly 80 percent of India's weapons systems come from Russia - which entails a dependence on Moscow for maintenance and spares as well. 

But the Modi government has done the diversification in last few years, and credittably so.

French arms exports to India increased “more than tenfold, making it India’s second-largest arms supplier in 2017- 2021", says SIPRI. Now come to these remarks from Jean-Joseph Boillot of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS). 

“Modi and Macron have identical interests and so they call themselves friends. They are interest friends," he says.

He also pointed out - “What interests Modi is big business. The friend of big business in France is Macron".

So, for a change, let us be optimistic.

One says so notwithtanding the fact that I am aware of the perils of sticking the neck out in terms of making predictions about future.

It is argued generally that experts and journalists who write a day or even a month ahead on certaon matters, always run the risk of having to eat their words.

                                                                           

Modi in Germany, 1993

ends