New Delhi
The paradox of religiosity; is that so ?
Church is certainly an influential institute in Nagaland. The Nagaland Baptist Church Council (NBCC) - bulk of Nagas being Baptist - is more than just a household name and it also commands a lot of influence on socio-political front in the insurgency-stricken state.
In the past, it has played key roles in establishing peace in the sixties, the NBCC virtually forced the Jamir government to introduce Total Liquor Prohibition laws and during the past decade directly and indirectly cautioned Naga voters against BJP's alleged politics of Hindu-hegemony.
This would remain a formidable challenge for the saffron party once it does not have any local influence.
The 'towering' leadership of Neiphiu Rio provided that cushion - at least this is what one argument has been.
Rio since his regional avatar from 2003 also pursued anti-Congress politics and the Lotus party slowly filled in the gap - the vacuum of a 'national party'. But in months to come, Rio may no longer be its friend especially before elections.
Here comes BJP's mega challenge. Of course, a solution to the long pending Naga political issue and a successful peace pact will give PM Narendra Modi's outfit a major advantage.
Importantly, it is remarked in the corridors of power that by nature Naga voters are 'grateful lot' and hence the ruling party in Delhi and Modi's leadership will
be 'rewarded' suitably once peace is ensured.
Nagas have gone through decades of violence and unpredictability. Hundreds of youngsters in cities like Pune, Bengaluru and Delhi actually may prefer to stay outside the state.
Hence any party that delivers peace will be embraced with warmth and bear hug - something PM Modi personally likes to display at the global stage with Pope Francis or leaders like Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump.
So Modi's bear hug or hand-holding with Naga militant leaders once peace pact comes will be a game-changer poster snap. However, the problem of Church and politics still would prevail at local-village and constituency level.
In some districts - where people are over zealously religious - even in 2018 polls, the church volunteers reportedly influenced outcome in several constituencies.
This is a practical challenge and the saffron party's poll strategists in 2023 will have to fine tune the electoral moves.
In 1992, I had interviewed NBCC general secretary Pongsing Konyak. The interaction was significant as it came on certain backdrops.
During Sept 6, 1991 Peace Day function at Zonal Council Hall, Kohima, the then Leader of the Opposition S C Jamir had alleged church of 'Dividing the God'.
Of course the reference was the Vamuzo government's 'closeness' to a number of top church leaders. There were also doubts expressed that involving church leaders would not succeed to bring Naga underground leaders on table for talks. This was around 1991-92.
Pongsing had countered my query vehemently, "The Nagaland churches have never taken sides with any political party....The duty of Church is to serve God. It is God's desire that I am in the church, and former Chief Minister Jamir is in politics. But service and pleasing God is required in both. All we want is that they play their politics well".
(Interview was published in 'Nagaland Journal, Kohima and also some publications in eastern India including 'Frontier Times' of Siliguri )
Here comes the relevance of referring to an old interview and a minor controversy.
In other words, the BJP's master poll strategists in Delhi would do well to appreciate the real polity on ground zero.
The hands of church will be an hidden force, the BJP candidates will have to counter.
A few years back, one senior BJP leader (now he has quit the saffron party) had told me about poll debacle for the saffron party nominees in some constituencies.
His lucid argument was - "People often said money, gun power and regionalism sentiment made Naga voters reject BJP candidates; the truth is in some places the local church influence was immense".
According to that leader, he had even shared his objective analysis with the then BJP general secretary Ram Madhav.
Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio is smart enough to understand the 'power' of hidden hands of church volunteers; and this is one area which he would using as a major bargain chip when the ball will be set rolling for elections.
ends
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| Blogger |
2020 data shows NSCN-IM most 'active': Back channel push on not to abrogate ceasefire
New Delhi
A fresh Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) report says though on a decline, insurgency-related incidents still persist and in 2020, the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland, NSCN-IM, remained the most active group with about 44 per cent of incidents perpetrated by it.
It further says in Arunachal Pradesh too, the NSCN-IM was involved in 11 incidents in 2020, while the NSCN/K-YK in five incidents and the NSCN/U and ENNG in two and one incidents, respectively.
As many as 21 cases of kidnapping were also reported in Arunachal Pradesh in 2020.
Peace is cool; and when you have 'peace', perhaps there is no much realisation of what life would be like in the absence of peace.
But some well meaning citizens and intellectuals have given unto themselves the task of making Naga militant groups and leaders of all factions understand the futility of confrontation either among themselves and or even 'others'. The apprehension of abrogation of ceasefire has risen as reports have suggested that the government of India could ensure deployment of additional forces and armoured men in some select pockets in Nagaland and in Manipur.
Although AFSPA has been relaxed in some pockets, the harsh law continues in other areas.
A number of leaders and well meaning personalities reportedly are meeting Naga underground leaders in various factions in the last one week or so and have tried to pursue them to see reason and give up obstinate stance wherever necessary.
The Naga peace talks, according to one version, were over by October 31, 2019. But hurdles and differences have remained and hence efforts are being made to end the deadlock.
A number of formal and informal interactions have taken place between Centre's new peace emissary A.K. Mishra and underground leaders including from NSCN-IM and Naga National Political Group (NNPG).
While the issues of Flag and a separate Naga Constitution were flagged off by NSCN-IM, the NNPG under the leadership of N Kitovi Zhimomi is keen to sign a final peace pact at the earliest.
There are pressures from all quarters on the Central government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi too.
The Nagaland Tribes Council (NTC) has lately written to Modi urging him to expedite the resolution of the Naga peace process, saying Nagas were "impatient now on the non-resolution and the extensive policy of negotiations for a solution to the Naga political issue".
In the meantime, one data has come out lately from the Union Home Ministry.
The NSCN-IM, was reportedly involved in 44 per cent of insurgency related incidents in Nagaland in 2020.
It, notably, never agreed to the argument that all parleys were over by October 31, 2019.
Thus more than the statistical data, the timing of the report is seen in some quarters as the most critical part. It suggests the NSCN-IM, which began talks formally in 1997, is still active on ground with boots and bullets.
Of course, there are some figures/data that suggest that the violence and other insurgency-related activities saw a significant drop between 2019 and 2020 in Nagaland. But it is also true, the incidents still persisted.
The MHA report says that in 2020, Nagaland witnessed a 45 per cent decline in the number of violent incidents compared to 2019. It actually came down to 23 in 2020 from 42 the previous year (2019).
Moreover, in 2020, the state of Nagaland witnessed no civilian and security forces' deaths though counter-insurgency operations led to neutralisation of two insurgents, arrest of 222 insurgents and recovery of 84 weapons.
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