BJP authorises its president JP Nadda and Union Minister Rajnath Singh to discuss with NDA partners, UPA-aligned parties & independents on a consensus candidate for the upcoming Presidential election ....
Rajnath had negotiated last time in 2017 along with M Venkaiah Naidu, who became Vice President....so in circa 2022, country's Defence Minister and ex-BJP chief -- who named Narendra Modi as party's prime ministerial face in 2013 could also make big !
Presidential polls : A look at who among all can make it, and what it would mean?
New Delhi
Can Mohan Bhagwat become the new President of India?
Firstly, it's doable ! Bhagwat will be a major unifying factor for 'right wing Hindu hardliners' and also a large number of moderate Hindus! And this move would suit Narendra Modi's politics of 2022 and also beyond.
So, we have two ideal situations for the BJP - Bhagwat as President and either Rajnath or Anandiben Patel as Vice President.
And second one could be - a tribal woman President or Vice President and either Rajnath Singh
or Bhagwat made the President.
Of course, Bhagwat's name will not make any progress in discussions if - one, Bhagwat himself is not keen
and secondly for whatever reasons PM Narendra Modi himself does not like the idea personally.
On August 5, 2020 at Ayodhya that marked a major Hindu victory, both Modi and
Mohan Bhagwat had shared some golden moments together. Both got similar 'TV and social media' mileage,
and of course if one can refresh memories -- the 'secular establishment' had reacted rather
nervously !
'New India' to many could mean 'a new Hindu assertion' and nothing can demonstrate such assertion
than making the RSS chief President of India 'better'.
Politically, it would suit the BJP also and on ground zero there would be significant mobilisation of Hindu vote-bank in Gujarat and also in states such as Karnataka. Modi's native state Gujarat goes to the polls to elect a new legislature in December 2022 and Karnataka polls are due by April-May 2023.
The politics of BJP is definitely linked to Hindu consolidation. Right from 2017 and it was demonstrated in 2022 polls again, in choosing and projecting Yogi Adityanath — one who presumably follows an ascetic life style based on yoga and spiritualism — party leader and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not only authorized him to anchor BJP's massive victory in Uttar Pradesh but also given Hindu groups a new generation of leadership.
Bhagwat's elevation can only strengthen these standpoints.
Of course as in 2022, right from Rashtrapati Bhavan -- all key posts are held by those who had grounding
in the RSS.
President Ram Nath Kovind, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu, PM Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh
and Home Minister Amit Shah.
India is yet to have a President from a tribal community. This card was pushed by Late P A Sangma
and BJD and BJP had backed the idea but Pranab Mukherjee was too strong a candidate against him.
Two names from among the tribal who could be possible candidates are Chhattisgarh Governor
Anusuiya Uikey and former Jharkhand governor Draupadi Murmu. In 2017 also, Ms Murmu's
name was being talked about. She has a bright prospect of making at least as Vice President this year.
Another name that may be considered is Rajnath Singh. This will give Modi an opportunity to return the
favour Singh had done in 2013 when he braved all hurdles and objections from the L K Advani camp
and made Modi the 'prime ministerial candidate'. Rajnath also obliged Modi by naming him as PM-face
on Sept 13, 2013 --- four day before Modi's birthday !
After these two names - the battle is wide open.
The rumour mill earlier suggested Nirmala Sitharaman as she is a woman and also from Tamil Nadu.
But now that she has again made it to Rajya Sabha from Karnataka makes the chance remote though winning
a RS poll is not a disqualification for the coveted post.
If Tamil Nadu and women criteria are to be followed, luck may shine on Telangana Governor
Tamilisai Soundararajan. One interesting tidbit is - she has lost all elections that she has
contested so far.
If her candidature is finalised -- of course BJP and NDA have enough numbers to ensure
her smooth sail.
There are some added advantages for BJP in making RSS chief the candidate for the top post.
Bhagwat as President of India and Yogi as UP Chief Minister would also mean - a smooth sail
in Varanasi in the 2024 elections!
Taking Pranab Mukherjee to Nagpur was perhaps just one step and the logical second step would
be honour the RSS chief with the responsibility
In 2021 Bhagwat has also personally spoken about inclusiveness and his outreach to
Muslims in Mumbai had also created some positive vibes.
More interestingly, the Shiv Sena may find it difficult to oppose the candidature of a Maharashtrian.
In 2007, during Bal Thackeray's lifetime they voted for a Congress nominee Prathiba Patil.
But Presidential elections always have a typical Bihar or JD(U) and Nitish Kumar angle.
In 2012, JD(U) supported Congress nominee Pranab Mukherjee for presidential polls as against
BJP's P A Sangma. Yet again, in 2017, JD(U) was not part of the NDA but it backed Kovind
as he was Bihar Governor when his candidature was announced.
So in terms of alliance politics, Shiv Sena and JD(U) will be two parties to watch even in circa
2022.
Somehow there is not much talk about incumbent Vice President Venkaiah; he may emerge as a dark horse
in the race.
Elevating Rajnath Singh would necessitate appointment of a new defence minister and that could
mean a minor reshuffle in the cabinet. Such a situation also offers advantage to the Prime Minister.
As a senior parliamentarian, Rajnath can easily become Vice President provided Bhagwat choses to walk into
the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
Among the incumbent Governors, whether the Modi and Amit Shah duo will consider UP Governor
Anandiben Patel for either of the posts also remains to be seen. Ms Patel, who was part of the
Modi cabinet in Gujarat for long, had to ease herself out of Gandhinagar after Gujarat saw a massive
protest and a statewide rally by Patels. The powerful Patels -as we know have made their strong
presence in the US, Australia and Europe, started seeking OBC status.
Now, the timing is such that Gujarat is approaching its next round of assembly polls
within months the elections to President and Vice President's office will be over.
Among the regional partners, ground reality vis-a-vis statistics suggest, the BJP-led
may need support from BJD of Naveen Patnaik, who has been generally soft towards BJP always
and also may be parties such as the YSR Congress.
Feelers may be sent to Jagan Mohan Reddy, who seems to be a more pragmatic Telugu leader
as of now unlike two senior compatriots K. Chandrashekar Rao (TRS) and marginalised N Chandrababu
Naidu of TDP.
The speculation is rife that from the opposition camp Mamata Banerjee may field one of her
senior MPs from Lok Sabha for either of the post.
The Congress and communists - who once played pivotal roles in these elections - will have to work
harder this time. NCP chief Sharad Pawar was also once toying with the idea of such a high post.
For the presidential polls, for Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs, the value vote is 708, but it
is different for MLAs from different states.
In the ultimate, the real answers to many questions on these crucial political battles
lie in the womb of time.
ends
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