Mizoram bearing the brunt of military coup in Myanmar :::::: 'Naga talks have revived'

Aizawl/New Delhi:

Inflow of refugees from neighbouring Myanmar – mainly Chins and those belonging to Mizo ethnic group of northeastern Indian state of Mizoram – has started gradually.

About 20-25 people have reportedly sneaked into Zokhawthar village along the international border and where the Indo-Myanmar border trade centre is situated.

More people including three supposed to be Myanmar's 'security personnel (cops)' have also fled the country and moved to Serchip district's Lungkawh village -- 9 km from Mizoram-Myanmar border alongside river Tiau.

Sources said while Champhai district administration as per the requisite protocols have made it mandatory for getting all the names of those seeking asylum ‘registered’, the fear of some of their family members back in Myanmar getting persecuted by military junta has so far prevented them to get themselves registered.

A large number of Chins and other Myanmar citizens after backlash from military rulers had come to Mizoram in 1980s. Mizoram government officials say once the democratically elected government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi was took charge, most of the refugees had gone back.

However, the possible ‘onslaught’ of refugees from India’s eastern neighbour has revived again after the recent military coup.

Myanmar’s military junta carried out the coup ousting Suu Kyi regime alleging there was electoral fraud during the elections held in November 2020 amid Covid19 pandemic.

Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga, whose party Mizo National Front (MNF) said the people of the state would welcome ‘any ethnic Mizo’ or other Myanmar citizens facing persecution for participating in the pro-democratic protest in Myanmar.

Officials and federal agencies have alerted administration in Champhai, Hnahthial, Siaha and Lawngtai about the possible inflow of refugees from Myanmar.

Reportedly, the three 'security personnel' who fled Myanmar, claimed that they decided to shift to Mizoram as they 'disobeyed' the orders of their superiors by refusing to shoot at their own people in Chin-stronghold areas.

China sending feelers to pro-talks Naga groups !! 'Stalled Talks have revived', says NSCN (IM)

 New Delhi:

China's meddling of affairs in north east of India is nothing new. Beijing has long liked itself to be like an 'elder brother' to northeast -based insurgents. 

By June 2020 when Chinese and Indian forces clashed and both sides suffered casualties at Galwan valley, reportedly Beijing and some of its agencies have been mounting pressure on the aging Naga militant leader Thuingaleng Muivah to delay the 'peace process'.

Apparently the National Socialist Council of Nagaland -Isak-Muivah faction (NSCN-IM) around that time raised the twin issues of a separate Flag and Naga Constitution and in the process, the entire peace mechanism was stalled. In the meantime, several rounds of diplomatic and military level talks between India and China have taken place and some of it signaled towards withdrawal of forces.

Lately, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar held telephonic talks with his counterpart Wang Yi. A statement from the Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi said, "Noting the completion of disengagement in Pangong Lake area, Dr Jaishankar emphasized that both sides should now quickly resolve the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. He said that once disengagement is completed at all friction points, then the two sides could also look at broader de-escalation of troops in the area and work towards restoration of peace and tranquility". 

There were similar talks of reconciliation from the Chinese side as well. However, it goes without stating that skirmishes on the border along China, which stretches for 3,480 kilometers, are not new as much of it has been disputed and un-demarcated ever since India attained liberation from British India in 1947.

In the meantime, there are indications possibly China will be buying peace in Ladakh region in north of India and could enhance its activities along the far-eastern sector. Therefore, the military coup in Myanmar is seen with a jaundiced view in Delhi.

Now, sources say Chinese agencies have intensified activities in Arunachal Pradesh and also with Naga militant groups. 

Some of those who matter in India-China conflict in Delhi were alarmed by the fact that the potent that Beijing 'continues to keep its channel of communication' with other Naga groups including militant outfits 'operating' within the state of Nagaland. Unlike these groups, the NSCN(IM) of Muivah has substantial operational presence in the state of Manipur.

Meanwhile, the NSCN (IM) has said that the peace talks have revived.

"The Indo-Naga political talk teams are back on the table and the talk is progressing. The historic Framework Agreement (FA) signed on the 3rd August, 2015 is being brought back to live in order to remove any misinterpretation and thereby hasten the signing of Naga solution agreement," the militant group said in a statement on March 3.

Now if grapevine or some nuggets of information from Indian agencies are to be believed, China has offered to 'renew' its logistic help to N. Kitovi Zhimomi, the militant leader who is heading an umbrella organisation Naga National Political Groups (NNPG). Notably, the NNPG is ready for signing a peace deal with the Government of India which would ensure enhanced developmental package for the state of Nagaland.

Of course, what suits the possible machinations of Chinese agencies via-a-vis winning over NNPG is the fact that the earlier announced signing ceremony to ink a peace pact has been delayed for quite sometime now.

"The delay in the Naga peace process is like sending the files back. The peace is stalled and there may be violence yet again," admitted a source close to NNPG.

"We want peace but why should the powerful Government of India be afraid of some Naga elements who want to delay it," the source said in oblique reference to the NSCN (IM), whose twin issues of Flag and Constitution have delayed the final peace accord.

Reportedly China is interested to win over these pro-peace talks Naga groups. Some of these groups have been urged to revive their insurgency-related activities with the assurance that they would be provided with 'security and logistic support' in western Myanmar. 

Top of it, China has started making noises here and there on Arunachal Pradesh yet again. Beijing does not recognise the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as integral part of India.

In 2017, when Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama had visited Arunachal Pradesh, Beijing had registered its protest saying, "It (Dalai Lama's visit) goes against the momentum of the sound growth of bilateral relations and will not benefit India in anyway." 

The Indian government had rejected the objections and stood by its ground and had asserted that as a secular country India could not stop a spiritual leader's visit to any part including Arunachal Pradesh.

The India-China standoff threatens to kill peace in the region and it has certainly alarmed global powerslike the United States. Prime Minister Modi has been aware of the significance of this conflict. At the first virtual stage sharing between Modi and Xi Jinping since the Galwan crisis in June, the Indian Prime Minister took a dig at China and said all member nations of the Shanghai CooperationOrganisation (SCO) should respect each others' territorial integrity.

China's problems are also complex. The border issues with India came at a time when China was actually running out of money over the US monopoly on trade and politics. The Taiwan issue was at its peak and Hong Kong was another pain in the neck case. Of course, one could say the India-China border problems in circa 2020 has a wider geopolitical ramifications mainly linked with the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. China has also faced criticism over its handling of the coronavirus. Detractors did not mind calling it Wuhanvirus.

The World Health Organization (WHO) meetings and subsequent US snub have shown China could be left isolated, licking its wounds.Then came in another factor. The Modi government has grown close to the United States. Some experts feel that with the Covid-19 crisis affecting geopolitics and the global economy, it may not be erroneous for China to presume that India will attract investments from global corporations at the expense of China. New Delhi also persisted in spreading its message clearly at various international gatherings. 

In September, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh categorically told his Chinese counterpart Gen Wei Fenghe during their meeting in Moscow that none should "doubt" about India's determination to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Chinese Defence Minister also agreed on the importance of peace and harmony and suggested that

both sides should maintain communication at all levels.

The contemporary history of Nagas has come a long way since then.

Old timers among the security agency sleuths say in 1966-67, China not only had backed

the Naxalites upsiring in parts of West Bengal, in the same year Muivah and his other colleagues 

went to Yunnan province. The Naga group was even initially called 'Naga National Volunteers'.

NSCN (IM) statement:

NSCN (IM), under no circumstances will fail the Naga people and will never sign any agreement that is short of the mutual standard as agreed upon.

 The status of the Indo-Naga political talks that came up in the last Parliamentary Session was confirmed by the Union Government that it is in advance stage.