In Uttar Pradesh assembly polls are due in 2022. But the importance of Uttar Pradesh is well understood and hence the urgency.
The 2027 assembly election in Uttar Pradesh is linked to the 2029 parliamentary polls and hence there is always a focused approach. But before going into that it is crucial to reflect upon the political atmosphere of the Uttar Pradesh polls in 2022 and during 2024. In these two battles - a section of BJP leaders were "encouraged" to circulate the debate around a simple but loaded query -- who is the face of the real leadership of BJP in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
Of course for RSS and other Sangh outfits - Yogi Adityanath is the real face both for UP in 2027 and - for them - for the 2029 parliamentary polls as well -- Yogi will be one of the chief protagonists.
This simple story is easy to understood but that's only on the face value or one part of the story. There will be some undercurrent of 'unhappiness' against the Lucknow man and hence all other drama associated with the political plot of 2027.
In fact even in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had paid a heavy price because of internal bickering and the RSS 'non-cooperation'. That Narendra Modi failed to garner around 300 seats in the Lok Sabha polls was largely due to internal sabotage and RSS "indifference". The good fortunes of the Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav were more guided by the elements of coincidence than any political masterstroke.
Of course, some misleading campaign by the Congress and the SP leaders only show that in some constituencies the BJP loss could have been attributed to mass mobilisation of Muslim voters and a large section of those who were promised cash benefits by Congress and other parties.
But all these are stories of the past. On December 2 and 3 a few important meetings were held in Lucknow. Some of them were attended by key RSS figures such as Arun Kumar and B L Santhosh (who is also BJP general secretary in-charge of organisation).
Reportedly chief minister Yogi Adityanath also held a meeting with important BJP and RSS leaders in presence of his two deputy chief ministers.
One insider has put it aptly - "If we have any problem in 2027 ... we could land in bigger troubles in 2029. In 2024 - we almost had the nightmare".
Of all the things what was the harshest in 2024 between BJP and RSS was an unwarranted statement from Lotus party chief J P Nadda himself -- who had said the his outfit is now strong enough and would not require the support of RSS.
As a result, the RSS karyakartas stayed at home in 2024 polls. The results showed what difference such a decision had made. Then came polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, Jammu region and Bihar and in all these provincial polls - the united and collaborative works of the Sangh led by RSS and the BJP showed - how things can be swung in favour of the BJP candidates.
Thus the Lucknow-conclaves have settled few questions - almost as a case of once and for all.
First - Yogi Adityanath is the undisputed leader of BJP in Uttar Pradesh and without doubt he is the chief ministerial face of 2027.
Second - those who tried to even think and circulate an idea that Yogi can be replaced have been snubbed.
Third -- this is an overall good news for the BJP.
Fourth - it has been decided that the Lucknow will host a mega Hindu Sammelan in connection with the 150 years of the RSS.
The BJP has gone a step beyond comprehension of many analysts and its detractors.
The Lotus party has almost created their 'third successful model state or laboratory'. - That is Maharashtra. So far, BJP had two laboratories - Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.
Now the new lab is Maharashtra -- a state where around August-September 2024; the BJP was the fourth largest party. The NCP, Congress and Shiv Sena were above it in the chart.
Now for three times - it has emerged as the single largest party. Of all these battles, the 2024 polls results were crucial in Maharashtra from BJP's point of view and also for the future of national politics.
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Now it has turned disadvantage into an advantage. The BJP is running a coalition government in Maharashtra but two of its allies Shiv Sena under Eknath Shinde and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar are immensely marginalised.
The observation made above that Maharashtra is a 'new lab' for the BJP is guided by this factor.
The saffron outfit will now slowly marginalise the regional allies and of course all other regional forces too. Thus, election in West Bengal has several key implications for time to come.
ends
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