The BJP MLAs in Manipur are set for a meting in Delhi with the party's national president J P Nadda and other senior leaders on December 14th for a structured decision on the formation of a new government in the state.
In February this year, Manipur was placed under President's Rule and the assembly was suspended after chief minister N Biren Singh had tendered resignation. Biren Singh had stepped down due to internal politics and the saffron party never had problems of numbers in the House.
A Cultural programme at Imphal to welcome President Murmu, Dec 11
The party's central leadership is in dilemma mostly to ensure participation of Kuki legislators in the new government.
Even if BJP and other Kuki legislators either as individuals and as a bloc decide otherwise - they are under immense pressure from the community and multiple pressure groups not to give up the strong stance taken that they want a 'separate administration'.
Hence, it is likely that the six Kuki BJP MLAs may also attend the meeting convened by the high command. But in all likelihood they will not agree to join the new government.
The Kuki-Zo community's refrain so far has been - 'The issue before Kuki and Zo people is not whether we have President's Rule or a new popular government in Manipur. Our issue and principal narrative is for a new and exclusive administration for the Kukis".
If the MLAs are forced to stick to this -- and it looks probably happening - the centre may have the option of early dissolution of the suspended assembly.
If the assembly is dissolved now, the centre can order a snap poll by March-April 2026 with West Bengal and three other states including Assam.
The centre also has an option of continuing with the status quo and hold election in 2027 when the country will witness high-flying electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Goa.
“I am aware of the pain and hardships that the people of Manipur have endured following the unfortunate violence,” President Droupadi Murmu said on Dec 11 speaking at a civic reception held at the City Convention Centre, Palace Compound, Imphal East.
The Kukis demand a "separate administration" for lasting peace; while Meiteis want a National Register of Citizens (NRC) be implemented in Manipur to detect "illegal Chin-Kuki migrants" from neighbouring Myanmar.
More than 260 people belonging to both Meitei and Kuki communities have died and over 60,000 others have been displaced due to the conflict.
Meitei MLAs especially from the BJP have also been demanding restoration of the government in the state citing improvement in law and order in the past few months.
There are other facets too as the state administration under Governor Ajay Bhalla, a handpicked former bureaucrat, came under attack for hosting Sangai festival while no concrete measure was allegedly taken to help rehabilitate the internally displaced people.
If the high command takes any decision to allow reviving the assembly and installation of a popular government; the BJP's next headache will be to find a suitable chief ministerial candidate.
Technically, former CM Biren Singh can always stake a claim and has several legislators in the suspended House to back him'; but Prime Minister Narendra Modi may find it difficult to yet again repose faith in Biren Singh.
After 2023 violence; Biren Singh was given opportunity for 22 months to improve the situation in the violence-hit state; but on that front Biren Singh was a failure.
The BJP central leadership had shown faith in four leaders from north east - Biren Singh, incumbent Assam and Nagaland chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Neiphiu Rio respectively and also NSCN-IM leader Thuingaleng Muivah.
But the experience has not been very good.
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