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 India becomes 4th-largest economy by overtaking Japan, set to pip Germany by 2030

As one of the world’s youngest nations, India’s growth story is being shaped by its ability to generate quality employment that productively absorbs its expanding workforce and delivers inclusive, sustainable growth, it is claimed. 

India's real GDP grew 8.2 per cent in Q2 of 2025-26, driven by strong domestic consumption, urban demand, and structural reforms, the Centre said.

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, with a GDP of USD 4.18 trillion.

Bharat, that is India, is now projected to surpass Germany to claim the third spot by 2030.

The country continues to be the fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by robust domestic consumption and strong structural reforms.

India’s real GDP expanded 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 per cent in the first quarter and 7.4 per cent in Q4 of the previous fiscal, marking a six-quarter high despite global trade uncertainties.

IMF projections for 2026 put India’s economy at US$4.51 trillion, compared with Japan’s US$4.46 trillion.

New Delhi’s upbeat assessment comes despite economic worries after Washington in August hit New Delhi with huge tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil.

Continued growth reflects its “resilience amid persistent global trade uncertainties”.

International institutions have echoed optimism about India’s growth trajectory. The World Bank projects 6.5 per cent growth in 2026, while Moody’s expects India to remain the fastest-growing G20 economy at 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 6.5 per cent in 2027. The IMF has raised its projections to 6.6 per cent for 2025 and 6.2 per cent for 2026, while the OECD forecasts 6.7 per cent growth in 2025 and 6.2 per cent in 2026.

The government said the economy is expected to reach a GDP of USD 7.3 trillion by 2030, building on strong economic foundations and ongoing reforms. The US remains the world’s largest economy, followed by China in second place.  

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN STRONG

The government highlighted that inflation remains below the lower tolerance threshold, unemployment is on a declining trajectory, and exports continue to improve. Financial conditions are stable, with strong credit flows to the commercial sector, while urban consumption continues to strengthen, supporting sustained economic momentum.

“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well-positioned to sustain this momentum. With the goal of attaining high middle-income status by 2047, the country is building on solid foundations of economic growth, structural reforms, and social progress,” the release said.

India became the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2022, when its GDP overtook that of former colonial ruler Britain, according to IMF figures.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi this year unveiled sweeping consumption tax cuts and pushed through labour law reforms after economic growth hit a four-year low, in the 12 months ended March 31.

India’s rupee hit a record low against the dollar in early December – having dropped around five per cent in 2025 – owing to ongoing worries about the lack of a trade deal with Washington and the impact of the levies on the country’s goods.

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