People talk about Castes ... But Muslim-dominated segments have always given BJP an edge :::: 51 seats in 7 districts including Kishanganj and Katihar have always helped BJP

Politics can often leave one shell-shocked.
Check out the statistics to verify the authenticity of this claim.

In as many as 51 seats spread across seven districts — Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, Purnia, Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi -- with substantial Muslim population -- the BJP performance has been always good. 

Believe it or not; in 2020 -- the National Democratic Alliance’s strike rate in 50 Muslim dominated seats was nearly 70 per cent, much higher than the JD(U)-BJP could do in other parts of the state.

The NDA has increased tickets for Rajputs (+8), Bhumihars (+5), Banias (+7),

 The NDA tally vis-a-vis Muslim-dominated seats was even higher in 2010. Their performance dipped in 2015 when the BJP and its key ally, the Janata Dal (United), contested separately. 

The pattern across all three elections - 2010, 2015 and 2020 - remains consistent.

These 51 seats are spread across seven districts — Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, Purnia, Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi — where the share of the Muslim population exceeds 20 per cent. 

Kishanganj is the only Muslim-majority district in the state, with Muslims comprising nearly 68 per cent of its population. 

In Katihar, they account for 45 per cent, in Araria 43 per cent, and in Purnea 38 per cent. In the remaining three districts, Muslims constitute around 22 per cent of the population. 

Except for Kishanganj, where the BJP has yet to make inroads, the party and its allies have dominated elections in the other six districts. 

** In Katihar -- the BJP won three of the seven seats and one went to its ally the JD(U) in the 2020 polls. 

The situation was similar in Araria and Purnia, where the BJP-JD(U) combine won eight of the 13 seats.

In four districts where Muslims make up 18 per cent or more of the population: Purvi Champaran, Supaul, Madhubani, and Siwan -- in both the 2020 and 2015 elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in these constituencies.

Together, these districts account for 35 Assembly seats. In 2010, that distinction went to the JD(U). The combined tally of the BJP and JD(U) stood at 24 seats in 2020 and a whopping 31 of the 35 seats in 2010.

It is quite likely that the presence of multiple Muslim candidates in many constituencies leads to a fragmentation of the Muslim vote.  

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has already launched a strong outreach to the Muslim community, accusing previous regimes of using them merely as a “vote bank”.

The Janata Dal (United) chief contrasted his government’s record with that of earlier administrations, urging the community to remember his government’s initiatives when casting their votes in the upcoming assembly elections. 

"Before 2005, no work was done for the Muslim community in the state. Prior to that, the government in Bihar used them solely as a vote bank. Communal clashes were a regular occurrence in various parts of the state," the chief minister said in an X post written in Hindi.

Nitish’s salvo apparently targeted the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal, who ran successive governments in the state from 1990 to 2005, barring just a week (in the year 2000) that Nitish himself briefly ruled.

You cannot ignore caste factor.

The BJP has leaned heavily on upper caste representation.

** Rajputs receiving 21 per cent and Bhumihars 16 per cent of BJP

tickets

This exceeds their estimated 3 per cent population share each. 

Muslim representation has been reduced to nearly zero, and Yadavs, a core MGB bloc, have been allocated just 6 per cent of BJP tickets.

JD(U) has stuck to non-Yadav OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs)

** Nitish Kumar hails from the Kurmi community, the party has reinforced the Luv-Kush bloc by allocating 12 per cent of tickets to Kurmis and 13 per cent to Koeri/Kushwahas. 

EBCs have received 19 per cent of JD(U) nominations, reflecting a strategic effort to consolidate backward communities wary of Yadav dominance.

Muslim representation across the NDA remains minimal-just 2 per cent of seats-despite Muslims constituting 18 per cent of Bihar's population. 

The BJP continues its policy of not fielding Muslim candidates in the state.

The RJD has doubled down on its Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base.

Yadavs got receiving 37 per cent of its tickets-more than double their 14 per cent population share-and Muslims 13 per cent. 

Together, half of RJD's candidates hail from the M-Y bloc.

The RJD has made tactical adjustments: upper caste representation has been reduced to 8 per cent. Kushwaha and EBC candidates have each received 10 per cent of tickets from Lalu Prasad's party.

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