In a minor snub, US declined to issue any joint statement with Canada on allegations against India ::: Trudeau wants to become an Olympic hole digger ??

The White House has not issued a 'joint statement' with Canada on allegation of murder of a Sikh separatist leader against India because it was a Canadian investigation. 

The India-Canada bilateral row over a sensitive issue has thrown a new set of challenges to the US and a few other countries.

Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute says, "Sometimes in Washington, what isn't said is as important as what is said. The fact that the US has not come out and affirmed what Justin Trudeau was hinting at, I do think is important. 

"Now, what should the US do? If Justin Trudeau wants to become an Olympic hole digger then perhaps the US' role would be to provide a ladder to help him climb out of it."

Uncle Sam: And Hurdles

Dinsha Mistree (Research Fellow at Stanford Law School) says, "I think there are several lessons that can be drawn from this, specifically to the US-India relationship. What is the Canada-India relationship now? It has deteriorated over something that didn't necessarily need to deteriorate...We should be proactive to prevent something like that from even coming to anybody's mind. 

"That takes an aggressive approach to Khalistani activism, it takes some deep conversations, 

I really liked the idea of sitting down with the Indians and thinking how we should define terrorism, more collaboration - if we do not do it we could end up in a situation like what we are seeing right now transpire with Canada-India or worse."

US President Joe Biden's bigger challenge is China and he has been keen to court India and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi all along.

As reflection of growing bonhomie, Biden had hosted a rare state dinner for Modi in June. To Washington, it goes without saying, New Delhi is an important strategic partner and 'key power hub' to countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. 

"That effort is now complicated by Canada’s explosive allegation that Indian officials may have been behind the slaying of a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia," says a report in 'The Washington Post'. The allegations from Canadian PM have resulted in expulsion of one senior diplomat each from India and Canada. 

It is true The White House’s approach since the allegations were made public has been to" walk a tightrope". But as these happen with diplomacy, it is easier said than done. But it is a setback for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau so far as no joint statement has been agreed to by the US.

This has made his allegation appear weak and something like a knee-jerk statement and in a hurry and at premature stage. 

After rejecting the allegations in a statement on Tuesday, the Indian government urged Trudeau to take actions against, what it termed, “anti-India elements” operating from inside Canada and followed this up by ordering a senior Canadian diplomat to leave the country. 

Hardeep Singh Nijjar had campaigned for an independent Sikh nation – known as Khalistan – to be carved out of India’s Punjab state.  Nijjar was fatally shot in his vehicle in June by two masked gunmen outside the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara temple in Surrey, British Columbia. 

"We remain in regular contact with our Canadian partners. It is critical that Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice,” US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement. 

“We urge the Indian government to cooperate in the Canadian investigation and ensure that those responsible are held to account.”

It goes without stating that India's importance in geo-politics has gained currency. It is now among the world’s most populous countries, occupies a strategic location in the Asian subcontinent and is home to a growing technology sector. It is fifth largest economy and will emerge 4th in about two years.

The United States and India recently established a high-level initiative on defense and emerging technologies that will, among other things, promote joint production of defense equipment, including military jet engines, long-range artillery and armored infantry vehicles. 

The US cannot ignore or allow Canadian issue to antagonise India at this juncture. “The Biden administration is likely to downplay or perhaps ignore the issue, to avoid having to choose between NATO ally Canada and emerging security partner India, to ensure the latter’s continued assistance in countering China,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp. and former U.S. intelligence officer (The Washington Post). 

Now there are other issues. 

India became the top source of foreign students studying in Canada — 2.3 lakh. 

India’s total trade with Canada (goods and services) in 2021-22 was US $11.68 billion. India’s import of pulses, almost 30 percent of the total import comes from Canada.

In June this year, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar hit out at Canada for allowing a float in a parade depicting the 1984 assassination of then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her bodyguards. This was 'glorification' of violence by Sikh separatists.  

Just as Canada faces diplomatic tussle, India too has its share of headaches. 

Canada is one of the powerful G7 countries and is also part of the 'Five Eyes Alliance' -- an intelligence-sharing grouping of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

So far, Trudeau has chosen to sound out US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Canada's challenge will be to prove its 'claim' on the evidence,  it has spoken about Nijjar’s killing.

What stands in favour of India and PM Modi is that besides the US, the United Kingdom and Australia are India’s close strategic partners. So each one of them will be cautious to say to do something.

Importantly yet again, pro-Khalistani groups have created problems in these countries as well with 'vandalism against Indian embassies' and inciting violence in some places against Indian diplomats.

The UK and Australia are walking cautiously too. 

Like the US, they too are 'deeply' concerned by these allegations.

Canadian PM Trudeau is going to New York, and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly will be also meeting her G7 counterparts on the sidelines of the UNGA.

Quite a testing times for diplomacy across several countries including India, Canada, the US and the UK yet again.