The purported Jealousy Industry against Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not only working in India. Frustration has gripped a lot of those in the position of authorities and in the role of political influencers in Pakistan. And there are reasons for it.
That Chinese President will not come to India for G-20 is hence a big news. Of course, it is a setback and hence no less than US President Joe Biden has said Xi giving a slip to mega Summit in New Delhi is disappointing. Pakistan could be drawing a consolation from it but they also know India's importance in the emerging world. While Modi could be trying to run away with some 'credit' for it, the market forces globally are also responsible for preferring this emerging India image.
There was a time especially in the sixties when Pakistani military generals and political leaders used to be perhaps more than happy to be 'hyphenated' with India. The size did not matter. They had the world's super power the Americans coming wooing.
India with socialism looked more than poor and non-alignment policy had made it a passive entity despite the size of the country and its population. Pakistan was already a friend of China and after 1962 it was clear that China-India friendship is hardly 'Hind-Chini Bhai Bhai'.
But the geo-political situation in the 1960s was misunderstood and misread by Pakistan. They left education and economy. They believed fighting India and making 'India walley' look small would be their path to salvation. In the 1971 war on Bangladesh, they were humbled. The country was divided and yet they thought they should give back India in Kashmir and possibly in some northeastern states and even elsewhere.
They pushed 'exporting terrorism' as a policy. Today, Pakistan's growing importance stature looks historic. They have lost friends and the 'patron' called America and China's friendship is also nuanced. At the same time, India has marched on. May 1998 under Vajpayee was a testing time for India as the Pokhran-2 nuclear tests were conducted successfully.
In 2023, Pakistan's economy is in shambles and they no longer have the US as a friend. And yet again there are reasons. India on the other hand has been successful with moon mission and also contributed towards economy.
On the China front, Pakistan was promised a big-time infrastructure investment about ten years ago. But most of it came in the form of loan. Then Imran Khan happened and he started asking a few uncomfortable questions of the rates of interest etc. The Chinese were upset.
But the fact of the matter is Pakistan does not have too many choices in the given situation even as Beijing has taken over its 'infra projects' in a big way. Islamabad does not quite mind this as that's the 'only investment' happening in that country.
The US has pulled out, and due to Chinese geo-politic factor and Afghanistan being a 'project of past', the Americans are today more interested to woo India than Pakistan. Those who understand things in details in Islamabad and perhaps also the military commanders who want to take a closer look on whether Chinese projects will be 'workable and profitable' in times to come.
What makes things a little more complex is a growing realising that a lot of Chinese economy healthy story narrative was actually only a mirage.
Over the years, China experienced significant nominal economic growth but this period also marked a massive increase in overall debt.
'The Washington Post' says, "The country’s population is both shrinking and aging, and questions loom over the potential productivity of a graying workforce. At the same time, youth unemployment has reached such striking levels that the government suspended publishing the relevant data this summer.
China’s economy once seemed the new engine of the world — and the country remains a juggernaut in global trade — but a sense of stagnation is creeping in, one that can be seen in the macroeconomic data as well as the waning optimism of a younger generation that knew only the boom times."
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'The Washington Post' further says, "....cash is tighter, the wounds of the pandemic’s draconian lockdowns are still raw, and China’s overheated real estate sector is extra laden with debt, with some major developers teetering on the brink of collapse".
It also says: Xi’s ever-tightening authoritarian grip over virtually all facets of life in China is arguably making the situation worse. “The government’s pursuit of total control has set the country on a path of slower growth and created multiplying pockets of dissatisfaction,” wrote Ian Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a longtime China watcher.
Coming to power in 2018 with the backing of army, Imran Khan has spoiled the show for Pakistan in more ways than one.
In India, Modi came to power four years before Imran. Modi's indomitable spirit has been working like a catalyst.
"He has been a doer - from day one - May 26, 2014 and has been steadily trying to perform and give his best round the clock. His reign of nine years and just a few months marks a watershed in India's contemporary history. The Modi government has created a framework in which our economy can grow. His government has discouraged bad business practices including corruption and also reduced the deficit," says a senior BJP leader.
The NPAs in banks have been turnaround and now India is eyeing northbound journey in growth graph. We should become world's third largest economy soon.
But there are no end to rivalries and Modi critics.
A paper has been circulated lately and that shows or tries to make a claim that the economic model Indian has been following since 1991 in effect helps only a small segment of large corporations over all other segments of society and equates their growth with the development of the nation.
This club is disturbed by India's onward march.
Nevertheless, India and its friends and associates including from Global South now have a greater chance to push for necessary reform in the running of the UN and the multilateral institutions. G-20 should boost this initiative.
Can the G20 summit PM Modi hosts and presides could turn out as the best and most notable aspect of something?
The US and other Western capitals are compelled by geo-strategic imperatives in the Indo-Pacific to seek India’s cooperation. Russia needs it for market and the new balance struck by Delhi.
China also cannot ignore Delhi.
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